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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    There was a 95mph pixel on RadarScope (using the KLWX site) on that complex...ground truth is less dense out there - but would love to see some LSRs.
  2. Kmlwx
    My eyes have been on that gap since the storms formed lol. I'm cautiously optimistic. Less so for Columbia - Have to imagine *something* whether it be sub-severe or severe will form as the stuff comes off the higher terrain. But screw zones always setup.
  3. Kmlwx
    For MBY - That WV stuff will be a close shave. Right now I *really* like the trajectory...but am most concerned about it slipping south and it being more of a Fairfax or DC proper into PG event. If more can develop - or perhaps if that storm can expand a bit more as it comes off the terrain things will be less precarious.
  4. Kmlwx
    Various CAPE parameters have been slowly improving over the metros. Decent amount of CAPE available - DCAPE looking better on mesoanalysis than earlier. Hail parameters have been on the rise as well. I know this is anecdotal at best...but that WV complex is in a position that has traditionally been pretty fierce for the immediate metro area (or at least parts of). There was a storm in July 2013 I think that tracked through there, then to Winchester, and then had some nasty winds that cut right through MoCo etc. EDIT: It was July 25, 2010. Wind core was near/just north of Winchester that day and did some severe damage in the metro area.
  5. Kmlwx
    Am hoping that area between the WV complex and the Hagerstown area complex can fill in with new development. I have a bunch that the WV complex may have a tendency to bend a little more south than east and may miss me (still looks good for DC, though. Some modeling certainly has screwed parts of the area - and it's to be expected with mesoscale weather events. I'm still optimistic....but we'll see. Certainly looks like a more widespread event than our spotty events.
  6. Kmlwx
    Cappucci says "Storms will weaken on approach to DC around suppertime, but might still linger with rain/lightning." Gutsy call given the current radar.
  7. Kmlwx
    Severe t'storm watch issued. Radar looking good.
  8. Kmlwx
    First mesoscale discussion of the day north of the Mason-Dixon line all the way up into the NE.
  9. Kmlwx
    Agreed. Though these things do sometimes like to be a BIT ahead of schedule (sometimes way ahead). I guess a lot will depend on whether it's one of those days where the slightest trigger makes for a messy radar. So far plenty of sun and no signs of storms yet. My dewpoint is around 70 so that can't hurt. I'll be watching that 3-4pm timeframe to see where we stand.
  10. Kmlwx
    It seems like we have not terrible mid-level lapse rates for a change. However, those may not be timed right with the actual storms - seems the best MLLR will be heading out of the area by the time storms are firing/ongoing. But better than nothing I suppose. I think we have a better than usual shot at a more widespread event today...hence the SPC ENH risk upgrade. 1630z discussion will be interesting to get a read on the latest thoughts.
  11. Kmlwx
    HRDPS
  12. Kmlwx
    It kind of looks like the eggplant emoji shape....
  13. Kmlwx
    HREF looks decent.
  14. Kmlwx
    Also - one of the few recent times I can remember when we have no cloud worries early on.
  15. Kmlwx
    Just saw the upgrade to enhanced. Day-of upgrades always seem to bode well for us. Especially when the upgrade is at the 1300 update or later. Let's go!
  16. Kmlwx
    Wonder how their new drainage system would hold up
  17. Kmlwx
    That would be ugly for Ellicott City....
  18. Kmlwx
    Particularly if the jackpots are in areas that have recently been deluged.
  19. Kmlwx
    Some of those products are beautiful. Thanks!
  20. Kmlwx
    A bit OT - but it would be really cool to have a model that was similar to the HRRR where the domain was not the entire country but small regions. Smaller region I'd assume would let it be run more frequently or at a higher resolution. Get a data assimilation system in place that allows for realllllllly good data at the start. Could be fun to see how something like that would perform as a regular part of the forecast models. I know some places (Millersville University had one) have WRFs that they run on their own...but talking more about something at the NCEP level. Though I'm aware that better resolution doesn't always mean better accuracy
  21. Kmlwx
    Having that coincide with climo peak heat would be very nice. Some sort of torch is nearly inevitable during summer - but if we can have that happen more towards later summer when we can pair it with reducing climo maxes it blunts the heat of summer a bit. 90 is even fine with me. But avoiding 95 and 68+ dewpoints would be great. All in all I haven't melted this summer so far.
  22. Kmlwx
    The HRRR has some smaller cells (nothing too impressive looking) for the metros. Thinking it *could* be distantly similar to the other day when things looked kind of lame and then cells kept training over MoCo. Maybe not to that degree but there could be training or backbuilding I'd think. Think that Flood Watch is more to cover the isolated cases of urban flooding or small creeks that inevitably occur in any storm that lasts more than 10 minutes.
  23. Kmlwx
    76 degree dewpoint IMBY right now. Awful.
  24. Kmlwx
    Missing me just a hair to the east. Good rumble of thunder a few mins ago, though.
  25. Kmlwx
    The fat lady is warming up for those of us not being impacted by the King George, VA cluster. HRRR continues to suck for this afternoon.
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