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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    NAM nest (at range) blows up a pretty solid looking complex of storms for the metro areas Thur PM.
  2. Kmlwx
    My early looks at Thursday are mixed. I do see the 6z Euro on the lightning density product spits out good storms for most of the area - timing looks decent as they come through after 18z through the end of the day. GFS seems less enthused with having good CAPE to work with. FWIW - CIPS is completely uninterested in the event. Definitely a Thursday situation at this point - I've written off Wednesday for most of us unless you're way out in the mountains to the west.
  3. Kmlwx
    The NAM (yes the NAM at range) has been a bit more favorable for severe Thursday. Biggest issue I think has been that the timing has been off for us. I think for the severe weenies in the area, the most exciting scenario would be for the system to slow enough that it allows a frontal passage during peak heating Thursday. Prior runs of the globals had the timing at poor parts of the diurnal cycle. The other thing would be if it sped up enough to get us with Wednesday - but the Wed threat seems focused well to the north and/or west.
  4. Kmlwx
    Powerful for this part of the country. Decent track length as well!
  5. Kmlwx
    Nice to track actual weather instead of phantom 10 day snowstorms....
  6. Kmlwx
    It's been a bit calmer for the last 10 minutes or so. Still hear some roaring higher up but it seems like at the surface it's a bit more tame for the moment. (Annapolis but not right at the water)
  7. Kmlwx
    Looks like IAD gusted to 57knots again
  8. Kmlwx
    LWX radar has 80mph patch of wind near Odenton. It's up at 3000ft but wow...really lit up velocity scans from LWX.
  9. Kmlwx
    43 sustained is ridiculous...bonafide tropical storm conditions
  10. Kmlwx
    Could CAA behind the front be enhancing the mixing despite loss of heating?
  11. Kmlwx
    One of the Bay Bridge SHA weather stations is showing a gust of 72mph
  12. Kmlwx
    Brush fire reported in Frederick apparently. REALLY bad weather conditions for something like that.
  13. Kmlwx
    For those who want to monitor - http://www.iadasos.org/IAD/index.html
  14. Kmlwx
    I'm impressed by some of the velocities showing up (and how widespread they are) on the TDWRs as that line of showers comes off the mountains that @yoda mentioned. The gusts are getting louder and louder. Pretty impressive gusts for being after dark.
  15. Kmlwx
    Just had a loud thud against an exterior wall at the house I'm at for dog sitting. Probably a big branch or something. Wind really roaring at times.
  16. Kmlwx
    LWX radar is showing some good wind to the west as well. TDWRs as well - but at range.
  17. Kmlwx
    The flight tracking sites are wild tonight - tons of planes doing weird holds and loops as weather impacts airport operations.
  18. Kmlwx
    Wind picking up now in Annapolis area.
  19. Kmlwx
    Dog sitting in Annapolis - pretty calm here but the sky looks ominous. A little wind but not much - few drops seen already.
  20. Kmlwx
    69/59 with plenty of sun
  21. Kmlwx
    Mesoscale Discussion 0428 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Areas affected...eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011515Z - 011745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms producing damaging winds appear increasingly likely today, beginning over eastern Ohio and moving quickly into parts of New York and Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over the region, with storms beginning to form ahead of the cold front/vort max. Despite low dewpoints, very steep deep-layer lapse rates, strong shear and substantial mixing of high winds aloft will likely yield wind gusts in excess of 50 kt over much of the area. As such, a watch is likely, and the outlook will feature a 30% severe wind probability. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
  22. Kmlwx
    Mesoscale discussion for both a watch coming and an outlook upgrade to 30% (for wind) is up for PA. I think PA and then NE of us is the place to be for today. Not sure we can get excitement locally today. My dewpoint is starting to come down a bit.
  23. Kmlwx
    Site not letting me for size restrictions it seems like - it looks pretty robust, though. I looked using the COD site https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ but Tropical Tidbits should also give a good view.
  24. Kmlwx
    NAM nest really rakes a line through PA. Not much convectively for us.
  25. Kmlwx
    Looks like areas near Hagerstown, Frederick, Westminster and similar place sin N Central MD are getting breaks in the clouds already. Most of the models are still not super enthused about pumping dews up. I am at 60 degrees on the temp AND dew right now. If we can hold in the lower 60s for dews - perhaps we can sneak some storms in.
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