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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Quoting you over here - certainly a nice look! 9 days away, though!
  2. Kmlwx
    Hit 90 and now 89.2 Dewpoint over 60 as well - so not intolerable...but fitting for the first few days of met summer.
  3. Kmlwx
    Well we all anecdotally know about the "rubber band" effect. Long periods of quiet often come to an end with an exciting bang...no guarantees...but this cool-ish and boring pattern will break eventually. And banking on heat/humidity and storms (how severe remains TBD) is always a safe bet in the DC area in summer. We'll see how it plays out over the next few weeks.
  4. Kmlwx
    Super long range GFS for June 13th has what looks like an EML plume potential severe event. It has been hinted on a few runs here and there the last few days but at that range - nothing consistent. Good mid-level lapse rates would be a rarity to see around here...paging @Eskimo Joe
  5. Kmlwx
    CIPS extended range is showing some hope late in the period... But it's at range and it's not any major signal.
  6. Kmlwx
  7. Kmlwx
    I guess I'm not missing any exciting weather back home while down in the Outer Banks. Hazard of doing a pre-Memorial Day trek down here I guess - it's WINDY and pretty chilly. Managed to get one good beach day in so far this week.
  8. Kmlwx
    Adding another post rather than editing...(mind vomit right now) I guess the point I was getting at was I think you're right in the sense that it's a relatively short period when we can really mix high shear with decent CAPE. Too far towards summer and we get closer to pulse season (not that a more dynamic event can't happen...but it would be more likely to be a ring of fire/cold pool driven event) - and too early and we don't have the high dews or instability yet - but shear/dynamics could be more impressive. If we aren't going to have storm threats...I'd much rather have the tolerable humidity and heat as long as possible. We all know that it's only a matter of time until we are all suffering in the 90s with dews in the upper 60s and 70s.
  9. Kmlwx
    I think it often depends on what exact "type/style" of severe we are talking about. Certainly this time in May we still can have potentially strong "spring" systems that can provide a lot of shear. But sometimes we are lacking in instability still this early. It hasn't been a super hot/humid May so far (part of me says thank goodness...). I remember a ton of really good storm events June/July - but a lot of the July events were likely more "pulse" stuff with less shear available that just happened to be memorable for swaths of the area. Certainly agree that for "area wide" stuff we are starting to waste some climo peak. Our area seems to go on "runs" of severe streaks. Far too lazy to look at the SPC event archive right now - but I seem to remember that there were some other beefy severe days in 2008 and 2012 clustered in the same time neighborhood as the "big ones" It really only takes about 1-2 weeks of a run to make a year a massive severe year for us IMO. Throw in some sort of tropical/flooding event in late summer/early fall and we can really string together some meteorological madness. Just have to get the snow part of the puzzle back into the mix I'm heading down to the OBX form this coming Saturday to the following Saturday...I'm OK if nothing happens between those dates...selfish.
  10. Kmlwx
    If anyone is on the W shore of the bay between Mayo and Arundel on the Bay or on the S side of Kent Island - there are C-2 Greyhound airplanes doing racetracks over the bay at low altitude. Good photo-op for those in a position to snap pics. Maybe preparing for a flyover at the Naval Academy - but so far haven't directly passed over there.
  11. Kmlwx
    I wonder if this is what the sky looked like in 1816 with the global volcanic eruption effects. Super heavy smoke and red sun is almost surreal to see.
  12. Kmlwx
    The CFS several times when I checked over the winter kept showing a ring of fire style pattern for Jun-ish.
  13. Kmlwx
    Can't wait to see the Drought Monitor map/discussion update next Thursday.
  14. Kmlwx
    CIPS has some interesting analogs in the mix. June 1, 2012 is in there
  15. Kmlwx
    Shame it's a bunch of months too late lol.
  16. Kmlwx
    Feb 7 was only a marginal day and even no watch was issued! Pretty impressive.
  17. Kmlwx
    "Tasty" ~Yoda
  18. Kmlwx
    If you want to spend the $$$ - you could also get a scanner to monitor local law enforcement/fire frequencies as well - most of them have NOAA capability with SAME as well. But those do tend to be MUCH more expensive versus a dedicated weather radio. Only useful if you're into scanning at all.
  19. Kmlwx
    Glad I mowed the lawn this morning
  20. Kmlwx
    This strike appears to have resulted in a strike to a house a street or two over. Occupant(s) out but fire in utility room involving gas line. Was hearing non-stop sirens as MCFRS responded to it.
  21. Kmlwx
    BIG lightning strike near here just now. Almost instant from the flash to the thunder. ENTLN data put it about 100-150 yards from the house maybe. Just up the street.
  22. Kmlwx
    Had there been higher dewpoints and more instability available, I think this could have been a significant severe day. Dewpoints in the mid 50s don't generally scream severe day to me. All things considered, I'd say this performed as expected.
  23. Kmlwx
    Had a good gust here - now dumping rain. Bye bye pollen (for today). Big rumble of thunder a few minutes ago as well. PWS has picked up 16 nearby lightning strikes so far today. Not too shabby.
  24. Kmlwx
    TDCA radar has some interesting velocity returns near Sterling.
  25. Kmlwx
    Uptick in lightning showing up in the ENTLN data near Pleasant Valley/LWX radar - probably an indication of increasing intensity (at least for the moment) in that part of the line. That's likely an area to watch for anything severe now.
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