Kmlwx

Perhaps there needs to be an additional criteria added. "If ____ is out of town for event, automatic upgrade to that tier"

Third aircraft just flew over - same deal...not visible on ADS-B until roughly over IAD area and then TIS-B got it inbound to Andrews. This one was definitely a passenger style jet though - two engines - only got a look at the underbelly as it flew over from W to E. Odd tempo of activity inbound to Andrews today - and also semi atypical for them to be not readily trackable.

What sounds like fighter jets (2 so far) have gone right over me in Colesville. They are unlabeled aircraft only showing on TIS-B on the ADS-B sites. Anybody get a visual? Seems both are now circling JB Andrews and doing pattern work. They went from IAD area through SE MoCo and then around the beltway to Andrews.

NAM nest (at range) blows up a pretty solid looking complex of storms for the metro areas Thur PM.

My early looks at Thursday are mixed. I do see the 6z Euro on the lightning density product spits out good storms for most of the area - timing looks decent as they come through after 18z through the end of the day. GFS seems less enthused with having good CAPE to work with. FWIW - CIPS is completely uninterested in the event. Definitely a Thursday situation at this point - I've written off Wednesday for most of us unless you're way out in the mountains to the west.

The NAM (yes the NAM at range) has been a bit more favorable for severe Thursday. Biggest issue I think has been that the timing has been off for us. I think for the severe weenies in the area, the most exciting scenario would be for the system to slow enough that it allows a frontal passage during peak heating Thursday. Prior runs of the globals had the timing at poor parts of the diurnal cycle. The other thing would be if it sped up enough to get us with Wednesday - but the Wed threat seems focused well to the north and/or west.

Powerful for this part of the country. Decent track length as well!

Nice to track actual weather instead of phantom 10 day snowstorms....

It's been a bit calmer for the last 10 minutes or so. Still hear some roaring higher up but it seems like at the surface it's a bit more tame for the moment. (Annapolis but not right at the water)

Looks like IAD gusted to 57knots again

LWX radar has 80mph patch of wind near Odenton. It's up at 3000ft but wow...really lit up velocity scans from LWX.

43 sustained is ridiculous...bonafide tropical storm conditions

Could CAA behind the front be enhancing the mixing despite loss of heating?

One of the Bay Bridge SHA weather stations is showing a gust of 72mph

Brush fire reported in Frederick apparently. REALLY bad weather conditions for something like that.

For those who want to monitor - http://www.iadasos.org/IAD/index.html

I'm impressed by some of the velocities showing up (and how widespread they are) on the TDWRs as that line of showers comes off the mountains that @yoda mentioned. The gusts are getting louder and louder. Pretty impressive gusts for being after dark.

Just had a loud thud against an exterior wall at the house I'm at for dog sitting. Probably a big branch or something. Wind really roaring at times.

LWX radar is showing some good wind to the west as well. TDWRs as well - but at range.

The flight tracking sites are wild tonight - tons of planes doing weird holds and loops as weather impacts airport operations.

Wind picking up now in Annapolis area.

Dog sitting in Annapolis - pretty calm here but the sky looks ominous. A little wind but not much - few drops seen already.

69/59 with plenty of sun

Mesoscale Discussion 0428 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Areas affected...eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011515Z - 011745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms producing damaging winds appear increasingly likely today, beginning over eastern Ohio and moving quickly into parts of New York and Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over the region, with storms beginning to form ahead of the cold front/vort max. Despite low dewpoints, very steep deep-layer lapse rates, strong shear and substantial mixing of high winds aloft will likely yield wind gusts in excess of 50 kt over much of the area. As such, a watch is likely, and the outlook will feature a 30% severe wind probability. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

Mesoscale discussion for both a watch coming and an outlook upgrade to 30% (for wind) is up for PA. I think PA and then NE of us is the place to be for today. Not sure we can get excitement locally today. My dewpoint is starting to come down a bit.