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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Too bad we can't have a 19, 20, and 21z sounding too.
  2. Kmlwx
    Remember, though - EJ is more of a mid-level lapse rate guy.
  3. Kmlwx
    Any rotation at range should be taken with a grain of salt - you're seeing a higher level of the storm than you would be if the radar was closer.
  4. Kmlwx
    I figured somebody already had it ready to go
  5. Kmlwx
    Oh how I love you guys.
  6. Kmlwx
    Are you *trying* to get us to call you old?
  7. Kmlwx
    Bring us home!
  8. Kmlwx
    At work in Potomac/Rockville - but PWS at home is showing 81.7 temp and 72.2 dew. At least for the moment - MBY at home is still okay on the dew side of things.
  9. Kmlwx
    It's almost like a pity meso disguised as a good one
  10. Kmlwx
    Bold probs!
  11. Kmlwx
    Pretty abysmal hail risk in our region now on the probs, however. Enhanced for wind still, of course. The SPC discussion is a little meh worthy honestly.
  12. Kmlwx
    I'm glad we didn't elevate this beyond Yoda level on the @WxWatcher007 scale. Does this mean we outperform SPC?!?! We'll see the final answer by later on.
  13. Kmlwx
    @high risk - definitely a wait and see kind of thing but I have noticed a really big change in the sim reflectivity maps for much of the modeling for the greater DC area. It almost looks like the better chance of storms is tomorrow on the NAM nest for some of us. Oddly enough - there was some indicating in CIPS guidance that tomorrow would be a stronger event. Would be funny if that happened. Horribly boring stretch we are in if these few days fail - other than smoke we have had barely a thing to track.
  14. Kmlwx
    If nothing else - DCAPE is starting to crank up over Central Maryland.
  15. Kmlwx
    Really a no-win situation
  16. Kmlwx
    Has anyone heard of any flyovers for the DMV region for tomorrow's Operation Centennial Contact (KC-135s etc). PA is doing one but the DC area hasn't released any plans or info. Looks like Gettysburg may be the closest pass - would be a bit of a drive to go see especially on a workday...
  17. Kmlwx
    HRRR is still pretty meh
  18. Kmlwx
    We can still fail (I know I'm echoing what we all know already) - but the @Eskimo Joe failure mode of just no sun is not going to verify. If we fail it will be from something else.
  19. Kmlwx
    There were some peaks of sun on my drive into the office (Colesville to Rockville/Potomac).
  20. Kmlwx
    The good old fashioned DC screwjob essentially. Have seen it on more than one CAM overnight...I'd almost say that's becoming semi-likely with some crapvection/junk in between.
  21. Kmlwx
    The dewpoint here is 71 at this time. If we can avoid that dropping too much, and can manage some sunshine we should be set for something semi-decent. All a balance...we can probably deal with less of one thing if there is enough of another factor present. I can see @Eskimo Joe's concern - and certainly does seem that best sunshine will be S of I-66 but the threat is not greatly reduced as of yet. At least IMO.
  22. Kmlwx
  23. Kmlwx
    Matches what the HRRR runs last night were showing. Band of clouds in the morning but potential clearing by later morning/afternoon. Question is will it be soon enough. Visible satellite shows promise with a nose of clearing in Virginia - it appears (unless it's a shadow) extends up all the way into the Panhandle of WV and Maryland and even into a sliver of S PA. It's still early enough for clouds to resolve. If it was 10am and we are still socked in - sure.
  24. Kmlwx
    Some of the CAMs are uninspiring for a chunk of us. In fact, the latest NAM nest (6z) - largely missed DC proper with anything substantial and focuses most north and east of the city. Anne Arundel and Baltimore and north look good still on that run.
  25. Kmlwx
    HRRR does have pretty substantial cloudiness for much of the morning for our region. If we are looking only at dews...would think that 70+ could net us an impressive day (verification of the ENH risk). Mid 60s perhaps would verify us in the slight risk, and if the HRRR is completely right - general thunderstorms with some gusty winds perhaps. In reality - more factors go into it (MLLR, shear etc) - but dews will be a big deal tomorrow.
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