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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Thinking like you is either a really good sign (weather smarts) or a really bad sign (total weather cynic). It's definitely not as prolific as June 2006 - but just how the "band" of precip is moving - almost the anniversary too!
  2. Kmlwx
    I just pulled up the radar from June 26, 2006 - nowhere near as widespread (I figured) but again - it's a loose match.
  3. Kmlwx
    Not saying it will be anything close to (it won't be) this event - but the radar at this moment reminds me a bit of June 2006...downpours lining up on a SSW-->NNE trajectory.
  4. Kmlwx
    Latest GFS runs have backed off a bit on the quality of the remnant EML. That said - we do have a Day 4 15% outlook area from SPC for portion of the region.
  5. Kmlwx
    Impressive sim reflectivity signal on the 18z GFS for Monday afternoon/evening.
  6. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance has decent severe signal at 84, 108 AND 132. Best threat window we've had all year. June 4, 2008 is now the top analog on the 84hr frame! (for our domain/sector) June 1, 2012 is showing up in the analog mix at the 108hr mark as well - though not one of the higher analogs.
  7. Kmlwx
    The CIPS analogs from the 0z suite had some decent ones mixed in. I saw June 4, 2008 lol
  8. Kmlwx
    You're in here talking dirty to the severe weenies... Paging @Eskimo Joe - get us an EML and we can be sub-par on some other factors and still perform.
  9. Kmlwx
    CIPS had a decent severe potential signal on the 168hr frame on the 0z suite.
  10. Kmlwx
    I might be misremembering - but I think the last time LWX was down for either part of SLEP or a major failure - we all thought it was going to be like a 10 day outage and it was back up on like the 6th day or something.
  11. Kmlwx
    It figures that we start to see a potential uptick in severe potential in the coming days to next week while the LWX radar is down...Thanks for the answer! I also feel like they tend to work very fast on these - NWS ROC seems to underpromise and overdeliver at least in my experience with repair timelines. I'm guessing we could see it back in service early if the weather cooperates.
  12. Kmlwx
    Yep! I see we got a bit of a mention in the D4-8 outlook.
  13. Kmlwx
    I'm mainly using TIAD. Seems the feed from TBWI has been thready at best the last few weeks - lots of downtime. TDCA seems to miss some stuff over me - and I wonder if it's because it's a lower elevation versus areas to the west. Can the KLWX radar maintenance proceed even during rain?
  14. Kmlwx
    737-500 I believe. At least that's what showed up on the website.
  15. Kmlwx
    Snapped this picture of an unusual visitor to BWI earlier. Sierra Pacific Airlines has only two planes in their fleet. They last made a stop in Baltimore in late February. Seems they charter for military sometimes/often. Have been experimenting with an app called JetTip the past day or two. Has been cool to get an advanced heads up of "interesting" planes going into selected airports. Not a great picture - had to reduce it down a bit to fit on here.
  16. Kmlwx
    Was just remarking about this to the family a few minutes ago. Beautiful out (other than the bugs). 70 degrees and falling at 8:30pm-ish after the middle of June with a dewpoint in the mid 50s is crazy.
  17. Kmlwx
    Indeed - SPC placed that slight risk in the right spots!
  18. Kmlwx
    There was some spin I guess at high levels. Nothing near surface. Just an appendage really I think. And that Loudoun storm is crap now regardless.
  19. Kmlwx
    Meh
  20. Kmlwx
    Expansion of the existing watch to the south. They are sneaky like that sometimes when the area is not big enough for a new watch.
  21. Kmlwx
    It looks like LWX/SPC coordinated a local expansion of the watch to the south. I'm still left out seemingly. Oh well.
  22. Kmlwx
    I see you sneakily added the question mark
  23. Kmlwx
    After the SPC issuing a MCD for 20% chance
  24. Kmlwx
    MCD coming out - https://t.co/duty3P6Iy9 - Link may not be working yet.
  25. Kmlwx
    That is a beefy cell - no competition and I don't see any outflow yet. Pretty atypical for our area. Of course now that I said it the next frame will gust out Lightning production has been a good indicator of path and intensity tendency with this. The lightning has tended to be SE or even S of the radar returns...some of that is likely the radar data lagging behind the radar update - but I'd say areas just south of the Potomac look great right now if it maintains.
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