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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Plenty of modeling showing the unicorn "solid" squall line type setup tomorrow that we've been missing. If I was judging off of sim reflectivity alone - this is the most pumped I've been for a potential event this year so far.
  2. Kmlwx
    Lots of thunder (a few close strikes it seemed) here in Colesville with those storms as they moved through. Soupy out there...but at least it brought the temp down a bit.
  3. Kmlwx
    75 degree dewpoint sucks...knew we'd pay for the spring/early summer lack of it.
  4. Kmlwx
    It's really one of the coolest parts about meteorology - the people in the professional *typically* truly have a passion and love what they do.
  5. Kmlwx
    Let's see if the outflow from the Frederick stuff can ignite anything as it heads south and east.
  6. Kmlwx
    ProbSevere CIMMS product is way more enthused about the PW cell versus the previously warned one.
  7. Kmlwx
    Storm heading for Woodbridge is going to get warned soon, probably.
  8. Kmlwx
    There's a little cell near Haymarket that could make it into the NW DC or Southern MoCo areas if it intensifies or holds. It seems to be forming along a faint boundary to the north of the existing storms.
  9. Kmlwx
    There are definitely some boundaries of sorts apparent in the various terminal radar imagery. Seems a C shaped boundary in western Montgomery Co, as well as some semblance of a bay breeze and something working it's way up through PG/AACo etc.
  10. Kmlwx
    My earlier call of nothing between those corridors is still looking good. Though I still think it's possible something fires on boundaries later - maybe an outflow from the northern stuff or the southern stuff.
  11. Kmlwx
    My weenie wishful thinking is hoping that activity from SSW of Romney, WV up into PA can congeal and give us a decent line.
  12. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis has a local min of instability in Northern Virginia and parts of Central and N Central MD.
  13. Kmlwx
    Some interesting storm motions this afternoon... Activity near CHO seems to be going more NE than E. Activity near Manassas is heading almost due east. There's also a little shower N of Madison, VA that is heading more NE. Still a pretty quiet radar for many areas. Locally it seems S of US 50/I-66 and then perhaps along and N of I-70 might be the places to be...with some dead area in between.
  14. Kmlwx
    That cell has echo tops nearing 45kft now. Seems to have some broad rotation on some of the tilts too.
  15. Kmlwx
    Fauquier cell has "the look" right now. Cycling up again.
  16. Kmlwx
    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  17. Kmlwx
    Been getting plenty of baking sun here in Colesville. I do think mesoanalysis does seem to "lag" just a little bit sometimes. We'll see how it looks in an hour or so.
  18. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis shows DCAPE isn't that high - take a look at the SBCAPE values down in E NC
  19. Kmlwx
    Think the "dying" activity moving in now could do two very different things...perhaps they cloud us over and tamp down instability...ruining any storms later. OR maybe they setup some temperature boundaries which could focus storms later.
  20. Kmlwx
    That's the only activity that looks remotely interesting for the moment. Will see how this stuff looks as it heads into Loudoun - but pretty unimpressive thus far. That cell you mentioned might end up being what the 6z NAM showed with the UH track - but perhaps a little further south than forecast.
  21. Kmlwx
    I'm betting that stuff towards Front Royal/along the Blue Ridge is the main show. Should see it start to grow/intensify as it comes off the higher elevations. May be more stuff later - but that should be the "big storm" potential. Lots of sun!
  22. Kmlwx
    Mesoscale discussion for all the way up in NY/N NJ/NE PA. Nothing for us yet.
  23. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to mix dews down into the mid 60s in spots. My dewpoint still has lowered a bit (to around 70) - but still think mid 60s may be a reach.
  24. Kmlwx
    I'm seeing some blue skies around now.
  25. Kmlwx
    FV3 (0z run) looks abysmal for storm chances for many this afternoon. ARW and ARW2 look a bit better but not spectacular. HRDPS looks splotchy but passable for now. Yet another day of model solutions all over the map.
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