Jump to content

Kmlwx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,111

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Meso discussion is about what would be expected. It's SOUPY out there. Definitely back to typical DC summer conditions.
  2. Kmlwx
    and the slight risk is gone. I really hate to be one to criticize SPC...but the other day they added a hatched hail area and subsequently removed it. Today they have us in marginal, bump us to slight, and then trim the slight way back again. With more and more people directly consuming SPC outlooks...we can no longer make the excuse of "it's not even for public eyes unless they go looking for it" - this is very public knowledge now. They should have just kept us at marginal all the way until confidence was higher. Rant over...but this is 2nd time in recent days/weeks.
  3. Kmlwx
    HRRR seems to think the storms will make it roughly to the Chesapeake before petering out. FV3 (12z run) really doesn't have much for most of us. It's still anyone's guess...but I think the SPC expansion of the slight risk into the area is probably wise. It's pretty cloudy here in Central Maryland - but certainly moist...73+ degrees for the dewpoint IMBY right now. I'm guessing we will overperform simply because I have baseball tickets for tonight
  4. Kmlwx
    The guidance is all over the place for both today and tomorrow. Pretty much every solution portrayed depending on which model you look at. Could be anything from getting blanked (for the most part) both days, to flush hits both days (maybe even multiple times).
  5. Kmlwx
    Just a cursory glance at the terrain map and map in general for that area - a few things grab my attention - 1) Much less developed/urban sprawl areas versus other suburban areas closer in. 2) Triadelphia Reservoir/Patuxent River in that area 3) Sort of evenly split distance between the city center of Baltimore/DC (think heat islands). Have to wonder if the UHI plays a role...totally speculative - but if you have one area warmer than others one would assume there could be some microclimate stuff going on like eddies of warmer areas and such.
  6. Kmlwx
    ^^ Wow...obviously two isn't enough of a sample size - but that's suggestive that there *could* be some sort of terrain or microscale influence there to get spin going. At least while I was watching/tracking during the storms earlier - that rotation formed pretty quick - granted I wasn't really looking at elevated tilts.
  7. Kmlwx
    The 48hr HRRR!
  8. Kmlwx
    I said earlier...result of today will either be that we pay with painful misses for a while...or we are on a temporary heater. Given the recent boring weather, and a hunch feeling...I do wonder if we string together a solid streak of storm days.
  9. Kmlwx
    The 18z NAM kept me largely dry except for a few showers...and of course I bought tickets for the Baysox game tomorrow evening...fitting that the NAM seems to want to spoil that. The 12km NAM even looks solid.
  10. Kmlwx
    After today I'm almost inclined to use the HRRR as my "first guess" for both days - it really did pretty well on this morning's runs for this afternoon/evening.
  11. Kmlwx
    Both Sat/Sun seem to favor south of the Potomac. But some cells do make it ahead of the main line on that NAM nest run. These things are super tricky to forecast...H5 would seem to argue the bend further south of us is real.
  12. Kmlwx
    Radar estimates well over an inch here. Probably closer to 1.5
  13. Kmlwx
    PWS lightning count is 562 for the day so far!
  14. Kmlwx
    Was mentioned in the obs thread but yes - not even a marginal risk, no mesoscale discussion - what an overperformer! Not seeing any LSRs yet - but assuming some lagged ones might pop up. I'd say this is a solid storm day given the silence from the SPC.
  15. Kmlwx
    You'll be swept away with a nice cold one!
  16. Kmlwx
    The HRRR performed REALLY well today IMO. Several runs in a row had a big cell type signature going right through Central Maryland. More like a line segment - but certainly a big punch for a non SPC risk day. This either means we will now pay for this with several misses in the next few days...or we are going on a hot streak for severe. Won't know until it's done
  17. Kmlwx
    Area of rotation now near South Laurel on the TBWI radar. Good little "notch"
  18. Kmlwx
    I didn't add the rain gauge to my PWS - too many trees for it to be sited well. Very good downpour and a lightning strike that ENTLN seems to have placed near Springbrook HS. Huge thunder following it.
  19. Kmlwx
    The Beltsville storm is going to get a TOR warn I bet. It looks similar to the HoCo cell.
  20. Kmlwx
    Also an area that looks like it may try to spin near Beltsville/Calverton
  21. Kmlwx
    Areas of rotation showing up - TOR warn for HoCo.
  22. Kmlwx
    Hoping it's just a one scan glitch and not a radar problem from the pedestal replacement....but the 20:12 0.5 scan has a big "pacman" style chunk taken out of the scan on the eastern side of the radar.
  23. Kmlwx
    HRRR did a pretty good job IMBY today. I think it was a little too weak on the northern end (N Central Maryland and similar). Still dumping here! Should lead to some improvement on the drought map update next week! We always seem to do well on non-outlooked storms days!
  24. Kmlwx
    Likely result is we fail on all three lol
  25. Kmlwx
    Storms moving over the core of the worst drought conditions on the Drought Monitor map. Every little bit helps.
×
×
  • Create New...