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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    If it's easy - I'm not convinced the storms will make it here with much else than showers. But - some of the models do have something coming through.
  2. Kmlwx
    Hang on - coming right up https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE
  3. Kmlwx
    Also, in addition to not having the triple digit heat that June 2012 had, this will be arriving substantially later. In fact, it will probably arrive so late that it makes little sense to "stay up" for the storms...I'll set an alarm for 2am perhaps and see how things look. I do like the look of the stuff over western Ohio - based on the H5 flow I'd think that would be more likely to be our stuff versus the NW PA stuff.
  4. Kmlwx
    Not anything near as intense as June 2012 - but this is the kind of event where MAYBE some of us get surprised. Models can really struggle sometimes with eastern extent of a threat in a setup like this. It will be fighting the complete opposite of peak heating by the time it gets here - but I'll be watching.
  5. Kmlwx
    Especially the MPAS runs on the NSSL site.
  6. Kmlwx
    I thought its was somewhat "odd" that the 3am discussion cited the 12z guidance - by that time the 18z and 0z should have been out. I guess maybe the 0z wouldn't have made it in. Ah well.
  7. Kmlwx
    Means nothing this far out...but the 0z and 6z GFS have a tropical system off the east coast in the super long range.
  8. Kmlwx
    The HRRR is quite stormy for the overnight period. The overnight nature probably means limited severe threat, however. These nocturnal storms tend to be prolific lightning producers when the atmosphere is humid, though.
  9. Kmlwx
    Despite no severe criteria being met in MBY - that was a lot of fun to track and watch the evolution. I would call yesterday a win. Lots of places got some much needed drinks for the grass and there was some nice thunder and lightning even if the storms were sub-severe for many. Good, widespread storm day.
  10. Kmlwx
    The GFS tries to get some upper 40s dewpoints into the area next weekend.
  11. Kmlwx
    You'd have hit an inch if you had not yelled last time...
  12. Kmlwx
    We've had less LSRs on severe thunderstorm watch days. I think this could have been given a watch. But of course - it was harder to say earlier. The dewpoints were juicy today + some good heat.
  13. Kmlwx
    Possible downburst/wind signature near and just south of Rockville on the TIAD radar.
  14. Kmlwx
    Continuous rolling thunder - not much in the way of anything severe, though. At least thus far. (Colesville, MD). Temp is getting knocked down, at least!
  15. Kmlwx
    CIMMS probsevere is tagging the entire blob as "one" now
  16. Kmlwx
    Maybe it will congeal into a mega-supercell. Does anyone remember "Lightning Fire from the Storm"
  17. Kmlwx
    The cell over IAD/LWX is putting down some prolific lightning it looks like.
  18. Kmlwx
    I'm guessing we are going to get some trees/wires down LSRs in that area between Poolesville and Darnestown.
  19. Kmlwx
    Possible downburst signature SE of Poolesville on the TIAD radar? - One of the most chaotic radars I can remember with so many cells in a small area. It's going to blobify.
  20. Kmlwx
    Heck of a messy radar now. Cell going up over LWX looks potent early on.
  21. Kmlwx
    MoCo cell is taking it's sweet time - probably going to be some healthy rain totals under it. radar getting messy between the MoCo cells and the big blob to the west as more little cells try to form. I'm guessing the MoCo cell is going to stabilize things so that the stuff behind will be weaker.
  22. Kmlwx
    Hail marker showing SW of Purcellville now. It's almost like the "blob" has two little "cores". Cool radar watching today.
  23. Kmlwx
    Very little lightning on the MoCo cell on ENTLN or GOES data. Will have to watch for another uptick - it could be gusting out or pulsing down though.
  24. Kmlwx
    I'm just hoping I can get a downpour to cool the house down a bit. The minimal cooling last night really got the upstairs temps elevated. Gotta get some H2O onto the roof to cool things down.
  25. Kmlwx
    TBWI has tops around 45kft on the MoCo cell. So it's either holding or intensifying.
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