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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    It's way out there - but the 12z Euro has a sub-1000mb low pressure passing around the Great Lakes next Monday. it actually deepens it to 996mb by 6z Tuesday. There's some CAPE available Monday on the model too - with significant bulk shear as well. That bears watching. The 12z GFS has some threat indicated Sun and Mon but the low looks pretty different/not as deep.
  2. Kmlwx
    Hope the power is back ASAP! Power outages can be fun as a kid - and maybe are a little interesting for the first hour or so as an adult...but after that things get pretty blah fast.
  3. Kmlwx
    Massive downpour here now
  4. Kmlwx
    Southern Maryland cell is trying for a last hurrah.
  5. Kmlwx
    It's definitely this. Populated areas - even with moderate storms tend to lay down a few LSRs.
  6. Kmlwx
    Have to imagine they are coordinating/discussing with local WFOs. Have folks at work that are antsy for my midday update for them - wanted to see the 12:30 SPC update before giving them the update.
  7. Kmlwx
    Refreshing the CoD SPC page like crazy...
  8. Kmlwx
    That LWX Special Weather Statement is a hint that they MAY have conferenced with SPC and some changes may be coming to the 1630z SPC update. Not saying definitely...but maybe an enhancement of the TOR probs. We'll see soon.
  9. Kmlwx
    Walked by a window at work - and there's still plenty of clouds but with a few sunny breaks in the Rockville/Potomac area.
  10. Kmlwx
    Visible satellite shows steady thinning of the cloud cover.
  11. Kmlwx
    I'm in favor of keeping it all here - while it turns into a mega-thread most years - it's a one stop shop for those wishing to go back through prior year's severe events. I know we used to separate into threads - but it's tougher to search those out than a single thread. And I don't think the forum struggles with large threads as much as it used to.
  12. Kmlwx
    I'm fully on board with today at this point. To quote Twister.... Let's all grab our ankles and stick our butts up in the air during the storms! Best place to be struck!
  13. Kmlwx
    The low clouds almost show up like CAD.
  14. Kmlwx
    I am angling to get out of work early...hope we don't start seeing radar blowing up too early. Because getting out prior to 3:30 is looking like a losing battle...unless by some miracle my firm decides to be lenient with liberal leave or something. I've messaged as best as I could to the powers that be (I'm the company weather person lol)
  15. Kmlwx
    Agreed - though it seemed like it was super "on the fly" in terms of how the upgrade happened. Wonder if that played a role - and up until the bitter end it seemed like there was low confidence in the intense strength being maintained this far east.
  16. Kmlwx
    As others have said - it's probable that given the synoptic forcing for later - we don't need extreme instability. I think the clearing of the low junk essentially is more of a determining factor as to whether we get something that we talk about for years versus a decent storm/iso severe day. Of course, microscale stuff could still lead to people getting missed (as is always the case) - but a total dud seems nearly off the table at this point.
  17. Kmlwx
    We've gotta figure out where we are on the scale Some might argue we're at 3 but maybe we are close to a 4?!
  18. Kmlwx
    Worth noting that if you animate that - all of the low clouds over the metro area appear to be just low clouds - may be easy to burn those off as long as clouds to the west don't come in to complicate things.
  19. Kmlwx
    That chase area tends to do very well!
  20. Kmlwx
    Several higher end events I think have. BUT - like mentioned above it has to clear out soon enough and of course every other factor can't go wrong either. No massively high mid level lapse rates with this it seems - so failure modes are still very real
  21. Kmlwx
    There are some cases when morning showers or convection (if it clears early enough) can actually juice up dew points and also lay down boundaries to enhance later activity. But it's always a game of balance.
  22. Kmlwx
    We have to strive to get this thread as active as this place gets 12 hours before a 30+ inch snowstorm.
  23. Kmlwx
    I'm tentatively in - parameters look pretty good for this region...our usual suspect (potential morning spoilage) will of course be in play. Won't know for sure my "in or out" status until that becomes more clear tomorrow. But I like where things stand for some excitement in the region. I love how this stuff tends to happen either when I'm out of the area or going to be in the office. Wish Mother Nature would hold off until my WFH days... Sent my weather email to the interested folks at work...maybe they'll let us WFH tomorrow afternoon but I doubt it.
  24. Kmlwx
    Some nice UH swaths over the area for Monday on that 12z NAM nest run.
  25. Kmlwx
    "couple of tornadoes" or "isolated tornadoes" are such blanket terms. It's those super rare times when you see "significant tornadoes" or "isolated strong tornado" that your ears perk up.
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