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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Decent core of wind on the velocity scans near Hillsboro and back to the NW of there a bit.
  2. Kmlwx
    Circular outflow from MoCo cell now showing up on the TIAD radar.
  3. Kmlwx
    CIMMS probsevere isn't too enthused about the MoCo cell yet - but it tends to lag just a bit. I'm guessing the MoCo cell is going to get warned soon unless it collapses.
  4. Kmlwx
    Big warning out now for the "blob"
  5. Kmlwx
    Is that a micro/downburst signature forming on the TIAD radar velocity scans for the MoCo cell? Compact for now....but sure looks like it IMO.
  6. Kmlwx
    Quick uptick in lightning now on the developing Montgomery County cell. Probably an indication it may be going to town. Imagine it won't be as intense as the storms to the west were earlier - but I bet at some point it gets a pity warning.
  7. Kmlwx
    Decent number of cells initiating across parts of the area ahead of the blob in the higher terrain. Manassas, MoCo, and Westminster area have some activity now. Sub-severe for now.
  8. Kmlwx
    Cell going up near Manassas now as well as Manchester, MD and near Westminster. Conceivable that the original complex well to the west may fizzle or continue to just be a blob while new cells fire in the metro area. Nothing severe yet - but some do seem to be growing upscale pretty nicely initially at least.
  9. Kmlwx
    Not sure how this is going to unfold from here...but some of those storm motions are SW to NE and some are trying to go NW to SE. We're going to have to see if this "complex" gets taken N of the metro area.
  10. Kmlwx
    Lightning on the increase again it seems like.
  11. Kmlwx
  12. Kmlwx
    The complex is looking kind of blobby. The big blob near Gore has the most lightning with it. Overall seems that each cell has weakened a good bit. Will be interested to see how the entire complex looks when it gets to the Loudoun/MoCo line or thereabouts.
  13. Kmlwx
    Could be terrain/radar interactions - but they do seem to be pulsing down a bit. Not to say they can't cycle back up as they come off the terrain! Looking at least semi more like a "line" even if broken.
  14. Kmlwx
    1 inch hail LSR from an NWS employee on the Gore cell.
  15. Kmlwx
    Reminder if you're using GR2AE to put in the storm motion on the toolbar to get a bit more accurate hail markers and such. That is a heck of a cell as is - guessing with the slow storm motions it may collapse or at least cycle down at times - it may gust out/become outflow dominant before too long. Then we'd be left hoping for more development along the outflow. But we'll see.
  16. Kmlwx
    That cell now is nearing 50kft echo tops.
  17. Kmlwx
    I only deal in Schrute Bucks.
  18. Kmlwx
    The cell nearing Gore, VA has the kidney bean look on radar. ETA: It's also looking like it's going to go through my "Kmlwx Box" (my version of the Hebert Boxes) near/just north of Winchester. Let's see if my old wives tale/anecdotes hold up.
  19. Kmlwx
    I went from being concerned about not enough southerly trajectory for the Romney cells to now being concerned about too much. Typical. That said - I also do not hate the radar - it's a bit less "gappy" than before but still some gaps in there. @H2O - I swear if you go outside and yell at the cloud again I'm going to be pissed.
  20. Kmlwx
    Keyser cell from earlier is now nearing Romney. I'm not mad at that trajectory thus far. Further, it seems like the stuff down near Petersburg/Lost City etc has storm tracks a little north of east. Meet in the middle for a biblical severe event in the metro area?!
  21. Kmlwx
    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2023 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 141802Z - 142030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN PA INTO EASTERN WV AND WESTERN VA THIS AFTERNOON -- WHERE A 1-INCH HAIL REPORT OCCURRED EARLIER. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHERE A PLUME OF DIURNALLY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS DEVELOPING. GIVEN AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/SPORADIC FOR A WATCH. ..WEINMAN/BUNTING.. 07/14/2023 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... They said "sporadic"
  22. Kmlwx
    Lots of lightning on the Harrisonburg area cell(s)
  23. Kmlwx
    I'm surprised there is no pity meso discussion out yet. Seems some days we get them while it's still clear as day on radar - others we go straight into a severe thunderstorm watch. Would think there'd at least be one out saying "sporadic nature will probably preclude the need for a watch. Nonetheless trends will be monitored"
  24. Kmlwx
    Still is a bit north for my liking, but the cell at the tail end of the northern cluster (near Keyser) seems like an okay trajectory for taking it into the DC area. Needs more of a southernly component to that east motion, though. I'd feel better if that area between the Keyser cell and the cells near Petersburg, WV filled in. Wishful thinking!
  25. Kmlwx
    Side note - I love the DC area split you can already see setting up on radar.
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