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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Interesting boundary collision happened near Travilah it looks like. Didn't result in anything thus far.
  2. Kmlwx
    I think you're right for severe. But we may see some showers or thundershowers scrape by as the activity down in VA passes by to our south. Look at the litle showers on the northern end of that stuff. Western MoCo probably done for anything though.
  3. Kmlwx
    Actually getting bright sun right now in Colesville despite that precip being just a HAIR east of me.
  4. Kmlwx
    The Gordonsville area storm down in VA looks like the beefy one of the day...maybe some weak rotation on it too.
  5. Kmlwx
    Nice outflow presentation on the LWX radar from the stuff crossing the Potomac. Outflow out to the north and south. The stuff down near Madison/Orange/and CHO looks decent.
  6. Kmlwx
    Little shower now trying to fire up near Rockville.
  7. Kmlwx
    Activity running from Calverton, VA up to Manassas is growing nicely.
  8. Kmlwx
    Left moving supercell parameter is doing better than the normal supercell composite parameter. Also parameters as a whole seem JUICED along and east of a line pretty much bisecting MoCo running SW to NE generally.
  9. Kmlwx
    And yeah that 16z run of the HRRR is robust. Seems like in this setup there may only be one or two dominant cells but they may be INTENSE ones.
  10. Kmlwx
    Little cells/showers showing up SW of Warrenton now. Would think that's the activity models have been keying in on. We'll what it does.
  11. Kmlwx
    Could be something *trying* to get bubbly near Front Royal. Nothing particularly interesting for now.
  12. Kmlwx
    Decent CAPE present in the SPC slight risk area. No shortage of bulk shear. DCAPE pretty good to the NW and then again well south and east - with a minimum locally. It is SOUP out there, though...
  13. Kmlwx
    14z HRRR looks good again for perhaps DC proper and then east to and across the bay. Seems it has consistently really "liked" Anne Arundel County.
  14. Kmlwx
    Slight risk includes the metro area on the 9am update.
  15. Kmlwx
    I'm starting to be "in" on a sneaky "lone ranger" kind of cell in the area this PM. 11z HRRR continues the idea of some training but also jumps on board with the idea of a cell blowing up and being the "dominant" one. It starts in NoVA but quickly intensifies and exits into the Bay in or around Anne Arundel County.
  16. Kmlwx
    The 0z MPAS-HT-NSSL also shows signs of this - as well as the MPAS-HN-NSSL. The RRFS-EMC blows up a thing that looks like a potential supercell in Prince William Co around 18z and it tracks it through DC before exiting into the Bay in Anne Arundel Co. The 6z NAM kind of showed the same thing - NoVA supercell that blows up and heads E or ENE.
  17. Kmlwx
    10z HRRR almost has some signs of backbuilding/training for parts of the I-95 corridor in the 18z-01z timeframe.
  18. Kmlwx
    The cell is now near Shanghai and looks like a mini supercell almost.
  19. Kmlwx
    The cell NE of Capon Bridge already seems to have some minor rotation with it potentially.
  20. Kmlwx
    The 23z HRRR gets northern Maryland with some activity overnight but seems it doesn't like the threat of an overnight batch as much (or at all) like some prior runs wanted to fire up.
  21. Kmlwx
    Now I recall hearing that. Guess we'll just have to keep assuming it is overtaxing in these situations.
  22. Kmlwx
    12z ARW2 brings some cells/line through around 5 or 6 and then has a rogue super cellular type thing doing what @Eskimo Joe mentioned earlier lol ETA: It shows it in the 02-04z timeframe.
  23. Kmlwx
    I hope they have a fix for the HRRR over mixing in the works. It seems to do it EVERY time.
  24. Kmlwx
    Model soundings seem to still show a decent amount of CAPE overnight - but also have some CINH as well as can be expected. Probably if nothing else a good light show overnight.
  25. Kmlwx
    Most of the guidance seems to be in agreement that there may be a late afternoon/evening round of showers/storms - but much of the guidance is pretty weak with that stuff. NAM and RAP seem to think best parameters may actually show up during the 3z-6z window...while it will suck for daylight, it's possible this can still perform. Wonder if the CAPE will remain surface based that late, though...may end up being elevated (admittedly I haven't looked closely at the soundings). I'm not very intrigued for the early round...and I do wonder if that is going to stabilize some areas too much to have the nighttime round of storms. Another storm day when I'm at work all day....
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