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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    It's funny because the earlier part of the same discussion is like "confidence continues increase"
  2. Kmlwx
    Not much change to the SPC outlook or the LWX AFD. Too early for the details CIPS looks decent.
  3. Kmlwx
    Next chance at some stronger storms - The upper trough will continue east across the Midwest and into the Northeast Days 6-7/Sun-Mon. Some severe potential may continue over parts of the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity on Day 6/Sun and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Day 7/Mon. Severe potential will be influenced by previous days' convection and the timing of the upper trough and surface front. Currently, forecast guidance handles the evolution of these features quite differently beyond Day 5/Sat, and too much uncertainty exists to delineate 15 percent severe probabilities. However, probabilities may be needed somewhere across the Midwest to the middle/upper portions of the Atlantic coast in the Sun/Mon time frame in subsequent outlooks, depending on trends in forecast guidance.
  4. Kmlwx
    Super long range GFS at 12z looks like potential fun coming up from the Carolinas hehe
  5. Kmlwx
    That's really impressive in the post tree massacre (the companies sheering off a ton of trees near power lines) era.
  6. Kmlwx
    I'll say "consolation prize" for missing two days of storms back home...but beach storms are awesome usually.
  7. Kmlwx
    Right on the DE/MD border (North Ocean City) and that clouds look WICKED right now. Will upload when I can. Hoping I got some good shots with the S23.
  8. Kmlwx
    I was not in the area today.... Supposedly a tree fell on the house across the street from my parent's house. Will see the damage on Sunday.
  9. Kmlwx
    I'm right there with you. It's mostly evolving just as much of the guidance had been predicting with a focus S/E of DC. Looking more longer range - GFS is trying to signal (for multiple runs) Something in the first day or two of August with beefy parameters. Way too far out for now...but CIPS has also been lighting up in the 96-120hr frames. The super long range CIPS quiets down substantially - probably indicates some larger cold front to clear out the juice.
  10. Kmlwx
    I would tend to agree - and most guidance agreed overnight and this morning as well. Thursday already has the slight - maybe we can cash in.
  11. Kmlwx
    There's a diffuse boundary to the west of the existing storms. That will be something to watch. This is from the TIAD radar.
  12. Kmlwx
    We might have to hope a boundary can set off some storms for folks W of I-95
  13. Kmlwx
    I just barely made it into the watch in terms of counties.
  14. Kmlwx
    Already storming E of 95 in many spots.
  15. Kmlwx
    I somehow never realized there is a mesoanalysis ARCHIVE! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/ That's some decent fun going through our big events. Seems like some imagery is missing but there's enough there to have some fun for weather nerds.
  16. Kmlwx
    Pretty strong CAPE already indicated for this early hour on SPC mesoanalysis - core of it it suns from NE Maryland down to the Potomac, essentially over the Bay.
  17. Kmlwx
    Hope you miss out on the potential 100 degree weather down there!
  18. Kmlwx
    Which beach are you at? I'm thinking MBY will be a snoozer today.
  19. Kmlwx
    Much of the guidance is almost nothing if you are west of I-95 in most of the area. FV3 Hi-res is still decent. But east seems to be very much favored today.
  20. Kmlwx
    0z HRRR does it's usual thing of bringing dews way down - even into the lower 60s for some tomorrow afternoon. The 18z NAM had richer moisture as usual. Despite that, the HRRR does deliver some storms but it looks fairly garden variety.
  21. Kmlwx
    12z NAM nest goes kind of bonkers for parts of the area tomorrow afternoon - even has intense UH tracks over parts of the area. The other guidance is less impressive...but the FV3 is pretty good too.
  22. Kmlwx
    Greaaaaat - naturally it happens as we are exiting the climo hottest period lol.
  23. Kmlwx
    PBZ radar is cool to watch. You can see the outflow trying to outrun the storms. Outflow seems to be heading almost due south despite the storms trying to pull more easterly - they keep being tugged along with the outflow.
  24. Kmlwx
    It also seems to interact with the activity over WV which seems to "aid" in killing off the line. Certainly the line still looks robust for right now.
  25. Kmlwx
    0z HRRR kills off most of the activity for much of our area except for NE Maryland as LWX has been indicating.
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