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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    Some interesting storm motions this afternoon... Activity near CHO seems to be going more NE than E. Activity near Manassas is heading almost due east. There's also a little shower N of Madison, VA that is heading more NE. Still a pretty quiet radar for many areas. Locally it seems S of US 50/I-66 and then perhaps along and N of I-70 might be the places to be...with some dead area in between.
  2. Kmlwx
    That cell has echo tops nearing 45kft now. Seems to have some broad rotation on some of the tilts too.
  3. Kmlwx
    Fauquier cell has "the look" right now. Cycling up again.
  4. Kmlwx
    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  5. Kmlwx
    Been getting plenty of baking sun here in Colesville. I do think mesoanalysis does seem to "lag" just a little bit sometimes. We'll see how it looks in an hour or so.
  6. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis shows DCAPE isn't that high - take a look at the SBCAPE values down in E NC
  7. Kmlwx
    Think the "dying" activity moving in now could do two very different things...perhaps they cloud us over and tamp down instability...ruining any storms later. OR maybe they setup some temperature boundaries which could focus storms later.
  8. Kmlwx
    That's the only activity that looks remotely interesting for the moment. Will see how this stuff looks as it heads into Loudoun - but pretty unimpressive thus far. That cell you mentioned might end up being what the 6z NAM showed with the UH track - but perhaps a little further south than forecast.
  9. Kmlwx
    I'm betting that stuff towards Front Royal/along the Blue Ridge is the main show. Should see it start to grow/intensify as it comes off the higher elevations. May be more stuff later - but that should be the "big storm" potential. Lots of sun!
  10. Kmlwx
    Mesoscale discussion for all the way up in NY/N NJ/NE PA. Nothing for us yet.
  11. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to mix dews down into the mid 60s in spots. My dewpoint still has lowered a bit (to around 70) - but still think mid 60s may be a reach.
  12. Kmlwx
    I'm seeing some blue skies around now.
  13. Kmlwx
    FV3 (0z run) looks abysmal for storm chances for many this afternoon. ARW and ARW2 look a bit better but not spectacular. HRDPS looks splotchy but passable for now. Yet another day of model solutions all over the map.
  14. Kmlwx
    Worth noting that as usual, the HRRR is mixing dews down into the lower to mid 60s in many areas this afternoon. NAM nest (6z run, at least) keeps most areas in the 70+ range. Despite this, the HRRR still fires t'storms across the area but without the supercharged UH swath across the Central Maryland area. I could be wrong, of course - but given the moist airmass in place - I really don't think we are going to mix down 10 degrees on the dews. My PWS (accuracy questionable, of course) is showing a dew of 74.5 right now. It may come down some - but I think 68-70 is far more likely when storms fire versus 62 as shown on the HRRR. We could still fail from a stable layer, lack of forcing, or countless other ways - but I like our chances better today as a whole than yesterday.
  15. Kmlwx
    I honestly just want to see if we can do an region-wide linear storm mode ever again. I know we've had some stuff blow up south of the area that's been pretty widespread - but I just miss the days of a squall (even if not over severe limits) going from NW to SE or W to E across the entire area. Splotchy severe seems to be the reigning champion here for a while.
  16. Kmlwx
    I saw some sunny breaks this morning while on the road. Pesky patch of clouds...let's see how this plays out.
  17. Kmlwx
    Given that I won't be at home during that time - mark my words it will happen now.
  18. Kmlwx
    Can't believe I forgot about that one - would tend to agree.
  19. Kmlwx
    Really June 2012 may have been the last truly area-wide significant severe event. Any one location has had other occurrences since then (would have to look at specific dates) - maybe 2016 had a few good area-wide events?
  20. Kmlwx
    Seems we will continue to wait for our once in a decade (or longer) alignment of EML, shear etc. I'd even settle for a non-EML robust cold pool event.
  21. Kmlwx
    Strong source of lift (ex: defined frontal passage) likely would have made up for poor mid-level lapse rates - but seems today we have neither of those
  22. Kmlwx
    I haven't looked at any soundings - but given the high SBCAPE - I'd assume it's a cap or not a defined source of lift. Lame day so far.
  23. Kmlwx
    Yeah - it's clear on radar but it doesn't seem like an outflow boundary - interesting!
  24. Kmlwx
    Let's hope it's right
  25. Kmlwx
    Poured for a few mins at the Baysox game. Looks like many places are getting wet!
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