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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    Marginal risk for Friday. I'm also intrigued - the past two runs of the longer range GFS are hinting at some EML action for late next week. Euro is less enthusiastic - but it's at least something to keep an eye on. Some super long range (300hr+) runs in the past few days hinted at this as well (GFS) but it's kind of vanished and returned with model inconsistency.
  2. Kmlwx
    Mean looking sky in Odenton, MD right now - but nothing severe.
  3. Kmlwx
    The 12z FV3 hi-res is showing areas north of the Potomac being favored until the line gets to just past DC and then favoring south and east. A bit of a screw zone in between near Anne Arundel Co and then over to the northern half of the eastern shore. Still...in the realm of model runs it looks pretty good. 12z ARW is a messy evolution with junky stuff developing before any solid line can form. 12z ARW2 favors northern Maryland into PA with a solid line.
  4. Kmlwx
    12z runs are continuing to look good. NAM nest blows up some convection over the bay relatively early which then seems to mute the activity for the afternoon - but it's still pretty good. 12z HRRR still on board with a more or less solid line of convection. The MPAS models from NSSL also look quite good.
  5. Kmlwx
    The usual failure modes (crapvection in the morning or clouds) of course apply - but it's nice seeing the modeling in somewhat good agreement (better than I can remember this year. There ARE of course variations - but HRRR (long range), NAM nest, FV3 and even the ARW ARW2 models all seem to move storms through - HRRR and NAM seemed most impressive.
  6. Kmlwx
    Plenty of modeling showing the unicorn "solid" squall line type setup tomorrow that we've been missing. If I was judging off of sim reflectivity alone - this is the most pumped I've been for a potential event this year so far.
  7. Kmlwx
    Lots of thunder (a few close strikes it seemed) here in Colesville with those storms as they moved through. Soupy out there...but at least it brought the temp down a bit.
  8. Kmlwx
    75 degree dewpoint sucks...knew we'd pay for the spring/early summer lack of it.
  9. Kmlwx
    It's really one of the coolest parts about meteorology - the people in the professional *typically* truly have a passion and love what they do.
  10. Kmlwx
    Let's see if the outflow from the Frederick stuff can ignite anything as it heads south and east.
  11. Kmlwx
    ProbSevere CIMMS product is way more enthused about the PW cell versus the previously warned one.
  12. Kmlwx
    Storm heading for Woodbridge is going to get warned soon, probably.
  13. Kmlwx
    There's a little cell near Haymarket that could make it into the NW DC or Southern MoCo areas if it intensifies or holds. It seems to be forming along a faint boundary to the north of the existing storms.
  14. Kmlwx
    There are definitely some boundaries of sorts apparent in the various terminal radar imagery. Seems a C shaped boundary in western Montgomery Co, as well as some semblance of a bay breeze and something working it's way up through PG/AACo etc.
  15. Kmlwx
    My earlier call of nothing between those corridors is still looking good. Though I still think it's possible something fires on boundaries later - maybe an outflow from the northern stuff or the southern stuff.
  16. Kmlwx
    My weenie wishful thinking is hoping that activity from SSW of Romney, WV up into PA can congeal and give us a decent line.
  17. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis has a local min of instability in Northern Virginia and parts of Central and N Central MD.
  18. Kmlwx
    Some interesting storm motions this afternoon... Activity near CHO seems to be going more NE than E. Activity near Manassas is heading almost due east. There's also a little shower N of Madison, VA that is heading more NE. Still a pretty quiet radar for many areas. Locally it seems S of US 50/I-66 and then perhaps along and N of I-70 might be the places to be...with some dead area in between.
  19. Kmlwx
    That cell has echo tops nearing 45kft now. Seems to have some broad rotation on some of the tilts too.
  20. Kmlwx
    Fauquier cell has "the look" right now. Cycling up again.
  21. Kmlwx
    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  22. Kmlwx
    Been getting plenty of baking sun here in Colesville. I do think mesoanalysis does seem to "lag" just a little bit sometimes. We'll see how it looks in an hour or so.
  23. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis shows DCAPE isn't that high - take a look at the SBCAPE values down in E NC
  24. Kmlwx
    Think the "dying" activity moving in now could do two very different things...perhaps they cloud us over and tamp down instability...ruining any storms later. OR maybe they setup some temperature boundaries which could focus storms later.
  25. Kmlwx
    That's the only activity that looks remotely interesting for the moment. Will see how this stuff looks as it heads into Loudoun - but pretty unimpressive thus far. That cell you mentioned might end up being what the 6z NAM showed with the UH track - but perhaps a little further south than forecast.
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