Jump to content

Kmlwx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,111

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Matches what the HRRR runs last night were showing. Band of clouds in the morning but potential clearing by later morning/afternoon. Question is will it be soon enough. Visible satellite shows promise with a nose of clearing in Virginia - it appears (unless it's a shadow) extends up all the way into the Panhandle of WV and Maryland and even into a sliver of S PA. It's still early enough for clouds to resolve. If it was 10am and we are still socked in - sure.
  2. Kmlwx
    Some of the CAMs are uninspiring for a chunk of us. In fact, the latest NAM nest (6z) - largely missed DC proper with anything substantial and focuses most north and east of the city. Anne Arundel and Baltimore and north look good still on that run.
  3. Kmlwx
    HRRR does have pretty substantial cloudiness for much of the morning for our region. If we are looking only at dews...would think that 70+ could net us an impressive day (verification of the ENH risk). Mid 60s perhaps would verify us in the slight risk, and if the HRRR is completely right - general thunderstorms with some gusty winds perhaps. In reality - more factors go into it (MLLR, shear etc) - but dews will be a big deal tomorrow.
  4. Kmlwx
    0z HRRR continues with the lower dews for many of us. Has dews down as low as the upper 50s for some spots even pre-storms tomorrow. That will likely impact the rest of the run and subsequent storm chances for us.
  5. Kmlwx
    That's a micro/mesoscale occurrence. Anecdotally I think we all tend to think the gaps happen over us. In reality, it's probably terrain/orographic in nature. Gaps in storms are normal - consider in hurricanes when a major eyewall is in place - the area immediately surrounding can often have subsidence (particularly during an eyewall replacement cycle. The concept of "storms robbing energy" is sort of true. If you have a massive lone cell, and no cold pool or meteorological reason for it to grow upscale into a line segment/squall line, it may "use up" energy for other storms around it - often it will impact the inflow for another potential storm. There's also, of course, the outflow racing out ahead that can cause storms to die off and then "jump over" a given locale as the outflow triggers new storms.
  6. Kmlwx
    I certainly find it hard to believe that there will be fewer than 5 severe reports in the LWX area tomorrow. But we'll see.
  7. Kmlwx
    Weenie-ism = It's underperforming today so that the juice can be saved for our event tomorrow.
  8. Kmlwx
    Not questioning the SPC - but I would have held off on that hatching until a subsequent outlook. Adding it on the initial D2 and removing it on the updated D2 is less ideal than just leaving it off until confidence is higher. As others have already said - I think the failure modes for us are still present. The mid-level lapse rates (if they come to fruition) should at least be able to give us some "wiggle room" for exciting weather. Unless we get a huge squall line stretching the entire area - some places (as always) will get shafted. That being said...my thoughts remain largely unchanged. I think this is our best severe weather threat in some time now. If the NAM moisture and HRRR moisture met in the middle - probably would still yield a decent setup. All will come down to nowcasting as it often does here. Will be interested to see how the models look at the 0z suite and even the 6 and 12z runs tomorrow. Lots of eyes will be on the dewpoints during the morning and the mesoanalysis page. I know we all cringe at trying to "forecast" the SPC. But I'd put my two cents in that the D1 outlook overnight for tomorrow will be largely unchanged from right now - unless guidance suggests some huge change or outbreak. Wouldn't be surprised to see the hatched hail come back at some point - the SARS analog data getting spit out on some forecast soundings is quite impressive on hail size. OT - but tomorrow is one of my in-office days of the week. And I'm in until 5:30pm...really hoping I can either duck out early...doubt it, though.
  9. Kmlwx
    I'm not officially on board yet. I'll take a look this evening.
  10. Kmlwx
    If my memory isn't failing me yet (it probably is) I do think that the HRRR had a tendency in past severe seasons to pull dew points way too far down. But I'm sure the NAM could be too moist.
  11. Kmlwx
    @Eskimo Joe - Not that it will alleviate your concerns of being shafted - but some models even focus a chunk of the activity NE of DC. HREF updraft helicity seems to show this. Some of the modeling seems to indicate there may be a dead-zone between a batch to the NE and a batch to the S. That could also be a failure mode for us locally...
  12. Kmlwx
    Always a risk! However, I'm cautiously optimistic that there aren't a ton of models (at least for now) that skunk big chunks of the area. A few DO favor south - but even those blow up good activity over the DC/Baltimore metros.
  13. Kmlwx
    I know sim reflectivity is not the and-all-be-all...BUT - I've got to say that the guidance is now pretty consistently spitting out sim reflectivity panels that are the most impressive I've seen for this area in some time. Not this weak sauce isolated crap or a weak line...this looks like an actual threat if things come together correctly.
  14. Kmlwx
    Liking the looks of many of the CAMs - but they are all still at range. Will be interesting to see how the modeling trends tomorrow.
  15. Kmlwx

    Radar outage

    Kmlwx replied to PSWired's topic in Mid Atlantic

    TDCA and TADW should be up
  16. Kmlwx
    "We take" "Tasty" " "
  17. Kmlwx
    Look at this from the 6z Euro for 3z on Monday evening.
  18. Kmlwx
    Unfortunately these days it feels like marginal is the new general thunder, slight is the new SEE TEXT and so forth. I honestly think we will see even fewer moderate risk days in our region with the introduction of the enhanced category.
  19. Kmlwx
    Here's a screenshot of part of the wind profile from a 12z NAM nest sounding for Monday afternoon - SRH has increased on modeling too it seems.
  20. Kmlwx
    12z NAM (12km) has some beefy soundings in the area for Monday. Timing (at least for now) looks good - I'm onboard (for now)
  21. Kmlwx
    From a superstitious weenie standpoint...I'll take it. Last thing we need is a D3 slight or enhanced going to crap.
  22. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS run roundup - At the 84hr timeslot, on the domain/sector that is most aligned with our area, most analogs don't have much for our area. Last analog #15 is June 1/2, 2012. If you use the box that is still relevant to us but a little further west, that June 1/2, 2012 analog goes to #12. A few analogs on there as well that got us some severe. Hour 108 has July 23, 2008 (will have to look that up) and a bunch of more toned down events. Interestingly - there's a few analogs that were seemingly minor events but centered on or near the Mid-Atlantic.
  23. Kmlwx
    A rumble of thunder or two here - heavy rain now in Colesville, MD
  24. Kmlwx
    I'm going to sound like a broken record - but we have tossed around this discussion in the past - anecdotally I remember a lot more "solid squall lines" in the 90s and earlier 2000s and severe events since then have seemed to be more shorter line segments or more spotty. Interesting that some of the analogs have had a lot of 1990s events in the mix - and that looks like a pretty long/solid line portrayed on the GFS. Again - just me with my pointless musings.
  25. Kmlwx
    12z GFS suggests best mid-level lapse rates go mostly south of DC. But sim reflectivity panels still look excellent - damn impressive for a model that isn't the short range/higher res stuff
×
×
  • Create New...