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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Agreed. Though I think one could argue that in some of those "random" events - it may not even be clear until there's actively a storm spewing out high-end wind damage in a relatively narrow swath. That one happened to be REALLY well-centered for a high population area - and I think it was fairly well forecasted by SPC.
  2. Kmlwx
    So many in the public were screaming about "we had no warning" on that one. AFD had "big tstms" mentioned that morning, SPC had added a 30% wind area for us, and we had a severe watch and warnings as the wind core came through. Sometimes the average Joe can be really ridiculous.
  3. Kmlwx
    I know it's like my favorite word on here - but ANECDOTALLY - I've found that in many "significant severe" events locally - at least for MBY - if we can get a really good wind core or line to go through roughly Winchester - the odds are pretty good for MBY. I like the current radar trends but the threat for stuff dying on approach is still high in my mind. July 25, 2010 comes to mind very readily - that was a big time power outage producer in the area.
  4. Kmlwx
    Just like in prior days - there is a relative min of instability over the area. Hoping that DCAPE and other parameters can increase locally - otherwise this is going to be cells dying as they approach.
  5. Kmlwx
    Derecho incoming. That cell will grow upscale and make a biblical cold pool.
  6. Kmlwx
    Agreed. Though...they do seem to do well once storms are already formed. the problem is....in this DC/Baltimore area - this typically is a 1-3 hour window and by the time the models fully "see" the real picture - the storms are either overhead or even east of us already It's often a case where our jokes like "It will get it right 2 days after the storm" kind of are correct.
  7. Kmlwx
    Almost 9pm and still 84.7 even outside of the UHI. Dewpoint 73+. Terrible. Still feels awful when stepping outside - and the 2nd floor of the house is 82.5 in spots (poor A/C coverage up there + a flat roof and no attic)
  8. Kmlwx
    Mesoanalysis actually has semi-decent mid-level lapse rates over the area
  9. Kmlwx
    Marginal risk for Friday. I'm also intrigued - the past two runs of the longer range GFS are hinting at some EML action for late next week. Euro is less enthusiastic - but it's at least something to keep an eye on. Some super long range (300hr+) runs in the past few days hinted at this as well (GFS) but it's kind of vanished and returned with model inconsistency.
  10. Kmlwx
    Mean looking sky in Odenton, MD right now - but nothing severe.
  11. Kmlwx
    The 12z FV3 hi-res is showing areas north of the Potomac being favored until the line gets to just past DC and then favoring south and east. A bit of a screw zone in between near Anne Arundel Co and then over to the northern half of the eastern shore. Still...in the realm of model runs it looks pretty good. 12z ARW is a messy evolution with junky stuff developing before any solid line can form. 12z ARW2 favors northern Maryland into PA with a solid line.
  12. Kmlwx
    12z runs are continuing to look good. NAM nest blows up some convection over the bay relatively early which then seems to mute the activity for the afternoon - but it's still pretty good. 12z HRRR still on board with a more or less solid line of convection. The MPAS models from NSSL also look quite good.
  13. Kmlwx
    The usual failure modes (crapvection in the morning or clouds) of course apply - but it's nice seeing the modeling in somewhat good agreement (better than I can remember this year. There ARE of course variations - but HRRR (long range), NAM nest, FV3 and even the ARW ARW2 models all seem to move storms through - HRRR and NAM seemed most impressive.
  14. Kmlwx
    Plenty of modeling showing the unicorn "solid" squall line type setup tomorrow that we've been missing. If I was judging off of sim reflectivity alone - this is the most pumped I've been for a potential event this year so far.
  15. Kmlwx
    Lots of thunder (a few close strikes it seemed) here in Colesville with those storms as they moved through. Soupy out there...but at least it brought the temp down a bit.
  16. Kmlwx
    75 degree dewpoint sucks...knew we'd pay for the spring/early summer lack of it.
  17. Kmlwx
    It's really one of the coolest parts about meteorology - the people in the professional *typically* truly have a passion and love what they do.
  18. Kmlwx
    Let's see if the outflow from the Frederick stuff can ignite anything as it heads south and east.
  19. Kmlwx
    ProbSevere CIMMS product is way more enthused about the PW cell versus the previously warned one.
  20. Kmlwx
    Storm heading for Woodbridge is going to get warned soon, probably.
  21. Kmlwx
    There's a little cell near Haymarket that could make it into the NW DC or Southern MoCo areas if it intensifies or holds. It seems to be forming along a faint boundary to the north of the existing storms.
  22. Kmlwx
    There are definitely some boundaries of sorts apparent in the various terminal radar imagery. Seems a C shaped boundary in western Montgomery Co, as well as some semblance of a bay breeze and something working it's way up through PG/AACo etc.
  23. Kmlwx
    My earlier call of nothing between those corridors is still looking good. Though I still think it's possible something fires on boundaries later - maybe an outflow from the northern stuff or the southern stuff.
  24. Kmlwx
    My weenie wishful thinking is hoping that activity from SSW of Romney, WV up into PA can congeal and give us a decent line.
  25. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis has a local min of instability in Northern Virginia and parts of Central and N Central MD.
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