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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Cell continues to look healthy. Track is not so great for me. Seems it will straddle or go just south of the Potomac. Looks good for places like Herndon - and further down the line DC proper.
  2. Kmlwx
    Wonder if outflow from the Winchester area storm can start to pop some other activity. So far, situation matches up pretty well with HRRR runs.
  3. Kmlwx
    The cell N of Winchester has a hail marker on it now. Bears watching. Uptick in lightning production in that one as well.
  4. Kmlwx
    The stuff down in VA is legit.
  5. Kmlwx
    Looking into the long range - the CFS still seems to want to setup the potential for some NW flow stuff in the heart of July (ridge centered over the middle of the country). Would be interesting if our entire severe season was kind of shifted a month or so later.
  6. Kmlwx
    I'll still radar-watch all afternoon - keeping an eye on the red circled stuff.
  7. Kmlwx
    And that reflects that watch lol
  8. Kmlwx
    16z HRRR back to sucking locally. Shafts just about everyone unless you're south of DC - and really the best stuff goes to the Northern Neck and extreme Southern Maryland.
  9. Kmlwx
    FWIW - interesting product.
  10. Kmlwx
    At the high of the day now that the sun has come up and started to warm things. 71.2 after a low of 56.3 this morning. Dewpoint has crept up a few degrees as well to 62. Now we wait to see if the "recovery" will be enough for good storms later.
  11. Kmlwx
    Well - if we end up with nada it certainly won't be due to lack of sunshine. Plenty of sun out there now. I'd be decently intrigued if I lived in PG, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, St Mary's counties or the Eastern Shore. Perhaps even NoVA. More of a question mark for the Montgomery, Howard, Carrol Co folks.
  12. Kmlwx
    15z HRRR for this afternoon.
  13. Kmlwx
    Temp of 63.7 here and a dewpoint sub-60. Doesn't scream severe risk - should get some juicier air perhaps in the wake of the morning crap-'vection' if you can call it that locally.
  14. Kmlwx
    14z HRRR continues to look decent...though it kind of favors VA and then east of DC (shocker). Encouraging that it seems to be picking up on the fact that our environment might recover a bit given the precip in the area now is really fizzling. Just gotta get this stuff outta here!
  15. Kmlwx
    FWIW (probably not much) - the 13z HRRR blew up really intense cells in the area (still favoring east but it is a marked improvement) around 19-20z.
  16. Kmlwx
    Thinking that for DC proper and areas W of I-95 we really need to get this now junky stuff to just GTFO so we can "recover" behind the line for some isolated cells later. If this stuff takes it's time and we just stay cloudy we are probably cooked for anything decent.
  17. Kmlwx
    You know it's bad when the most exciting weather event in recent times has been smoke.
  18. Kmlwx
    Wow...the 10z HRRR sucked.
  19. Kmlwx
    Quite a bit of lightning with the activity to the west! So far radar actually looks decent despite the early timeframe. Some of the guidance weakened it and then kind of skipped it over us - but for now I remain semi interested given the current pic
  20. Kmlwx
    All good! Though - you might have spoken it into existence - KLWX has been having issues lately it seems. Lots of downtime recently.
  21. Kmlwx
    A lot of the guidance is pretty emphatic on the idea of weakening the stuff to the west as it approaches and the intensifying it once it's east of many of us - @CAPE being the exception and anyone else mainly east of I-95 but really even east of the bay. A mix of the guidance still shows some cells popping up during the afternoon behind the initial activity...but we all know how this story goes. Despite what LWX says about the atmosphere recharging...I have my doubts. Current SPC SLGT area looks solid to me. Hoping for a good storm IMBY - but I have my doubts.
  22. Kmlwx
    @Eskimo Joe - Was it this? Was it moved up - because they originally showed June 20-30ish
  23. Kmlwx
    If there was any radar in the country to gamble with - it would be KLWX. We have TIAD, TDCA and TBWI in the area that can provide coverage for the immediate metro and many surrounding areas. Buy yeahhh - that's not ideal.
  24. Kmlwx
    Still an early-ish arrival on the 18z NAM nest but I like how it looks better than the last run. It's a little more "clean" and actually gets MBY good storms.
  25. Kmlwx
    The 12z NAM nest shows activity on the earlier side that intensifies east of 95 - some isolated stuff pops up later in the day as well - but seems like this could be a case where early stuff stabilizes much of the area. We'll see how it unfolds tomorrow. Best threat probably E of 95...
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