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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Has looked like a bookend vortex kind of feature for a while. We seemingly see these frequently with this kind of storm trajectory. That's seemingly where the highest odds for a gustnado or short lived tornado exist IMO.
  2. Kmlwx
    Actually looks decent on radar for the DC Metro area. Some lead activity has developed as well. Nasty looking bow structure coming up through VA.
  3. Kmlwx
  4. Kmlwx
    Instability/moisture concerns ignored - CIPS is really highlighting the 120hr period
  5. Kmlwx
    Too far out for now...but Sunday may have some potential - and does get a mention in the D4-8 outlook - but uncertainty is too high per their discussion (SPC).
  6. Kmlwx
    Has gone about as expected - main threat was south and east of the metros but the DC metro area still got some rain/storms/gusts. Also goes to show you - can't rely solely on CIPS (not that anyone was) but it showed almost NO enthusiasm for today's threat...and yet - decent number of LSRs to the south and east.
  7. Kmlwx
    Updrafts west of DC are having trouble sustaining. Meh.
  8. Kmlwx
    Okay Nostradamus
  9. Kmlwx
    Heck of a narrow one - and many of us are #fringed
  10. Kmlwx
    Decent amount of guidance seems to favor exactly where SPC has the higher probs. Still, see a few models that get DC with good activity. We'll see. Definitely not the @Eskimo Joe outbreak.
  11. Kmlwx
    78 and beautiful out there IMBY right now. Only downside is I've seen 3 massive wasps around the exterior of the house already today. Going to need to re-up my pest control application...
  12. Kmlwx
    FV3 Hi-res at range shows stuff developing Thur PM but mainly for I-95 and east.
  13. Kmlwx
    Perhaps there needs to be an additional criteria added. "If ____ is out of town for event, automatic upgrade to that tier"
  14. Kmlwx
    Third aircraft just flew over - same deal...not visible on ADS-B until roughly over IAD area and then TIS-B got it inbound to Andrews. This one was definitely a passenger style jet though - two engines - only got a look at the underbelly as it flew over from W to E. Odd tempo of activity inbound to Andrews today - and also semi atypical for them to be not readily trackable.
  15. Kmlwx
    What sounds like fighter jets (2 so far) have gone right over me in Colesville. They are unlabeled aircraft only showing on TIS-B on the ADS-B sites. Anybody get a visual? Seems both are now circling JB Andrews and doing pattern work. They went from IAD area through SE MoCo and then around the beltway to Andrews.
  16. Kmlwx
    NAM nest (at range) blows up a pretty solid looking complex of storms for the metro areas Thur PM.
  17. Kmlwx
    My early looks at Thursday are mixed. I do see the 6z Euro on the lightning density product spits out good storms for most of the area - timing looks decent as they come through after 18z through the end of the day. GFS seems less enthused with having good CAPE to work with. FWIW - CIPS is completely uninterested in the event. Definitely a Thursday situation at this point - I've written off Wednesday for most of us unless you're way out in the mountains to the west.
  18. Kmlwx
    The NAM (yes the NAM at range) has been a bit more favorable for severe Thursday. Biggest issue I think has been that the timing has been off for us. I think for the severe weenies in the area, the most exciting scenario would be for the system to slow enough that it allows a frontal passage during peak heating Thursday. Prior runs of the globals had the timing at poor parts of the diurnal cycle. The other thing would be if it sped up enough to get us with Wednesday - but the Wed threat seems focused well to the north and/or west.
  19. Kmlwx
    Powerful for this part of the country. Decent track length as well!
  20. Kmlwx
    Nice to track actual weather instead of phantom 10 day snowstorms....
  21. Kmlwx
    It's been a bit calmer for the last 10 minutes or so. Still hear some roaring higher up but it seems like at the surface it's a bit more tame for the moment. (Annapolis but not right at the water)
  22. Kmlwx
    Looks like IAD gusted to 57knots again
  23. Kmlwx
    LWX radar has 80mph patch of wind near Odenton. It's up at 3000ft but wow...really lit up velocity scans from LWX.
  24. Kmlwx
    43 sustained is ridiculous...bonafide tropical storm conditions
  25. Kmlwx
    Could CAA behind the front be enhancing the mixing despite loss of heating?
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