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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Will be curious to see if LWX goes with wind advisories or high wind warnings - seems if it's going to be dependent on a line they might just do wind advisories with the exception of the high elevations and then cover the more intense short-term wind threat with special weather statements or severe "thunderstorm" warnings.
  2. Kmlwx
    The 6z NAM nest is high wind warning criteria gusts for most of the metro area tomorrow afternoon. 55kts shown IMBY. That's an increase over prior runs. It even has some 40kt gusts TONIGHT for our area.
  3. Kmlwx
    I don't want to start the whole global warming conversation - but I could see our severe season getting extended with a warmer/more humid climate. Late March could become a more fruitful severe producing time of year.
  4. Kmlwx
    It can definitely get breezy with southerly winds - but yeah...our BIG winds are those NW wind events behind big storm systems typically in the fall/winter/spring. EC is more in check with their gusts showing in the lower 50s. If there is a synoptic wind event, I'm guessing it'll be pretty "typical" with widespread wind advisories and then perhaps high wind warnings for the ridgetops.
  5. Kmlwx
    in fact...GFS wind gust product has 60-65mph gusts Saturday afternoon. If we can't get severe that would be a heck of a wind event...
  6. Kmlwx
    That's some strong wind...
  7. Kmlwx
    It seems the models are keeping things positively tilted - 2002 was a negatively tilted trough as it went through the Great Lakes region. Again, never was saying it would be anything close to that...but the EC *was* yesterday more neutral/negative than the GFS but it seems to have gone more positive overnight. One thing that looks nice thus far is that the GFS has ample clearing on Saturday afternoon. It's still early in the season, but there could be some severe potential. We still got mentioned in the D4-8 outlook.
  8. Kmlwx
    Thanks! I had fallen asleep thus my non-reply! The "good" news is for @Brasiluvsnow that because it's a loop...even if you took the wrong way you'd still eventually get back to 95...just much longer
  9. Kmlwx
    By no means am I predicting anything similar...but the 500mb and surface low is not insanely dissimilar compared to April 28th, 2002 (La Plata) for this coming weekend. It even shows up as the last place ranked analog on one of the sectors on CIPS (had to go digging). GFS has the H5 pass much more positive but there's a lot of time to go. LWX had a good writeup in their afternoon discussion. I'm intrigued enough for this range...and this is a few weeks earlier than that event...but of course we are in a warmer climate since 2002 and again...H5 is not worlds apart.
  10. Kmlwx
    Just to clarify - if you're going back the same way you came - it'll be 49A for the exit and then 695 EAST towards Glen Burnie. Glad it worked out! Safe travels!
  11. Kmlwx
    Way too far out for any clarity - but here's a little shoutout for our area in the D4-8 outlook Severe potential could continue eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Day 6/Saturday. A moist boundary-layer will exist across these areas ahead of the east/south advancing cold front. However, timing and location of the surface low and focus of strong shear/large-scale ascent is uncertain, and predictability is too low to delineate any areas at this time.
  12. Kmlwx
    Lightning marker on the ENTLN data in southern Frederick County!
  13. Kmlwx
    It shouldn't add a ton of time - and honestly even if it added an annoying amount of time - it sounds like it will be absolutely worth it to avoid any anxiety and phobias! Safe travels!
  14. Kmlwx
    If you are running Google Maps on a mobile device or even any recent GPS, as long as you get off of 95 at exit 64 and take 695 east, it *should* get you to the right places - but for the first few miles there's a chance it will try to get you back onto the tunnel routes - so just be sure to stay the course and it will eventually recalculate properly I believe. Forum posters from that part of the region might have a better idea as to whether it WILL readjust.
  15. Kmlwx
    Yes - you can take I-695 EAST and it will take you by Essex which will then take you over the Francis Scott Key Bridge. Then just continue on 695 until you get to I-95 again and continue south on 95 and you're set! Best suggestion is to use Google Maps on the web and drag the route to the desired points so that you can customize it!
  16. Kmlwx
    The 0z HRRR actually looks kind of interesting for along and east of 95 (mainly east...) for tomorrow PM.
  17. Kmlwx
    You know how these things go, @yoda - wedge will win this time of year! But maybe we pull a miracle early season thunderstorm event for our sorrows of no snow during the winter.
  18. Kmlwx
    I saw a few flakes on my coffee run this AM. Wooo....
  19. Kmlwx
    Hoping for some ring of fire action - I saw a few intriguing CFS monthly runs the past few weeks...but many seem to center the ridge too far west for excitement. If we can avoid triple-H weather for long periods I'll be happy.
  20. Kmlwx
    I wasn't even watching it - seems any severe parameters were shunted south and east of us if anything. Meh.
  21. Kmlwx
    Don't worry - it will backfill a bit as the upper level solar support and added dynamics come through.
  22. Kmlwx
    Marginal risk for today for some of us.
  23. Kmlwx
    I know it will change hundreds of times between now and then...but I've seen the CFS flash some peaks of a ring of fire pattern for peak climo in May-July. We'll see... Getting pretty tired of this hunt for snow.
  24. Kmlwx
    It really should not be this difficult for anybody over the age of 15 or so to not act like petulant children. If they are going to act like this they shouldn't even be on here. Go get some sunshine or fresh air people.
  25. Kmlwx
    I love Cities Skylines with sandbox mode. Good time killer to just build endlessly.
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