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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    I'm a little more in today and less meh - but still pretty meh. The latest (06z) NAM nest looked decent. CIPS had a bit of a signal as well...at least as much as you could expect off-peak season. SREF even paints some sigtor ingredients in our region tomorrow on the 21z frame.
  2. Kmlwx
    This is true - especially if it's very dynamic at 500mb (negative tilted trough, well timed, and with some overlap in whatever CAPE is available and the shear and forcing). November 2006 had a very dynamic event.
  3. Kmlwx
    As is common in these out-of-season events...the NAM and NAM nest favor south and east of the metros for any enhanced activity. meh.
  4. Kmlwx
    Latest NAM nest puts the bullseye in NE Maryland and into SEPA. 12km NAM doesn't have that same max at all.
  5. Kmlwx
    PWS has max daily gust of 14.3mph since midnight. That means it was quite breezy as even in summer time storms this thing is hard pressed to get above 10 or 11 (it's not an ideal site as it is sheltered pretty well by trees and structures). The NAM nest and longer range HRRR both show a good amount of rain to come in the next "wave"
  6. Kmlwx
    The new 18z NAM rolling in suggests that there could be a period of good wind gusts in the metro areas between 6z and 9z - higher gusts than the last run.
  7. Kmlwx
    Took me longer than I'd like to admit to figure out that video higher up on this page was auto-playing. Somebody is going to have a shock when they load this page this AM at work....
  8. Kmlwx
    BECS for Southern Maryland and flurries for the Mason-Dixon Line
  9. Kmlwx
    The warned cell to the west has ping pong and ball sized hail in the warning.
  10. Kmlwx
    60 percent chance of a watch per the mesoscale discussion.
  11. Kmlwx
    Yes - the Euro pretty much ingests all pieces of data. They have the best ingestion/assimilation in the world.
  12. Kmlwx
    FWIW the 12z HRRR looked a bit better in terms of reflectivity versus the 06z run.
  13. Kmlwx
    I've mentioned this before - and my sample size is pretty small/anecdotal - but that trajectory of that "bow" feature on the 6z NAM nest is "classic" - for whatever reason...in many of my memorable damaging wind events (from storms, that is), the highest velocity pixels start at or around Winchester and then rake through the metro area. That simulated reflectivity progression is a pretty classic track. I suspect the reason we anecdotally see that as a "favored" track is because the WNW to ESE trajectory just matches severe weather squall lines well. Nonetheless, it has me interested.
  14. Kmlwx
    Many of the EPS tracks hook it back into the coast.
  15. Kmlwx
    Yeah - I hate making waves on the forums - glad we are cool. In the end I totally get what you are saying - and it's a legit argument for sure. I myself never hope that any harm comes to anyone - in fact, I would love to see a day when lead times are so good for tornadoes and such that there is only a tiny risk of death.
  16. Kmlwx
    I guess another question I'd bring up is what are your thoughts then on our beloved Josh Morgerman? He's built a career on destructive/deadly weather events...however, he is furthering the field with his data/experience. He literally tries to place himself in the direct path of some of the most dangerous storms on Earth.
  17. Kmlwx
    Moving to banter @IronTy - I don't think anybody is saying "hell yeah watch those mofos die in historic storm surge" But if a hurricane is moving - it's going to move based on weather/physics - we have no control over this (that I know of, yet). We will track it with enthusiasm - and some portion of us want to witness it for ourselves. While I don't *WISH* for it - if Yellowstone ever blows, I will of course watch it with intense interest as no human alive has ever seen that before.
  18. Kmlwx
    Last post before I go back to lurk mode - A 4" snowstorm can cause a person to have a heart attack and die. That's tragic too...I know not on the scale of hundreds of thousands impacted - but literally EVERY type of weather (high heat included of course) can cause tragedy. Are we going to now crack down on @Eskimo Joe for saying "Go big or go home" when it comes to heat waves? I personally don't that that me being interested in tracking weather is going to cause a hurricane to magically swerve and kill people. But that's just me. Without interest in Earth science/weather/people like weather enthusiasts - we wouldn't be where we are today in terms of advancing forecast capabilities. Some of the best meteorology folks out there were brought into the profession/hobby by deadly weather events.
  19. Kmlwx
    This is a discussion for banter, though. So I will shut up now.
  20. Kmlwx
    Actually I would 100% be doing this. For two reasons - to be real-time tracking the danger that is about to impact me (I enjoy elements of emergency management as well). I volunteer with MC Park Police here, interned in the past with MoCo Police and considered doing EM as my major at one point. The 2nd reason would be my interest in weather. I'd have Radarscope in my hand while my house was scraped off the face of the Earth. At that point, what can I do to prevent it? Nothing? If I've gotten my family to shelter and have tried my best to protect them - nature is going to be nature. Yes it can be tragic - but without people interested in the science and awe of it - forecasts wouldn't be improving.
  21. Kmlwx
    I think you missed the point of my post entirely. Which is fine - perhaps I was not clear enough. We are (I assume) weather enthusiasts. I know some folks here are here for just snow and that's all. But how interesting is it to track Sunny, 75 degree weather...if I'm being honest that's not being a "weather enthusiast" I personally am fascinated by ALL weather (not just snow). Synoptic wind events, severe storms, snow storms, hurricanes, the works. I know I rarely say this (all in jest @Maestrobjwa) but this is a time when I totally think @Maestrobjwa hit the nail on the head.
  22. Kmlwx
    Another year - and another "ethical" argument. We don't control the weather - but if there must be exciting weather we will track it as any weather enthusiast would. I don't *hope* for a EF-5 tornado to hit my house - but dangit I'm going to track it with awe if it comes my way.
  23. Kmlwx
    Not that it matters this far out - but the wind gust product is pretty garden variety. But again - it's fantasy land lol
  24. Kmlwx
    12z GFS run would likely be a tornado producing track for us .
  25. Kmlwx
    Unacceptable. I want my major hurricane over MBY.
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