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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Weenie-ism = It's underperforming today so that the juice can be saved for our event tomorrow.
  2. Kmlwx
    Not questioning the SPC - but I would have held off on that hatching until a subsequent outlook. Adding it on the initial D2 and removing it on the updated D2 is less ideal than just leaving it off until confidence is higher. As others have already said - I think the failure modes for us are still present. The mid-level lapse rates (if they come to fruition) should at least be able to give us some "wiggle room" for exciting weather. Unless we get a huge squall line stretching the entire area - some places (as always) will get shafted. That being said...my thoughts remain largely unchanged. I think this is our best severe weather threat in some time now. If the NAM moisture and HRRR moisture met in the middle - probably would still yield a decent setup. All will come down to nowcasting as it often does here. Will be interested to see how the models look at the 0z suite and even the 6 and 12z runs tomorrow. Lots of eyes will be on the dewpoints during the morning and the mesoanalysis page. I know we all cringe at trying to "forecast" the SPC. But I'd put my two cents in that the D1 outlook overnight for tomorrow will be largely unchanged from right now - unless guidance suggests some huge change or outbreak. Wouldn't be surprised to see the hatched hail come back at some point - the SARS analog data getting spit out on some forecast soundings is quite impressive on hail size. OT - but tomorrow is one of my in-office days of the week. And I'm in until 5:30pm...really hoping I can either duck out early...doubt it, though.
  3. Kmlwx
    I'm not officially on board yet. I'll take a look this evening.
  4. Kmlwx
    If my memory isn't failing me yet (it probably is) I do think that the HRRR had a tendency in past severe seasons to pull dew points way too far down. But I'm sure the NAM could be too moist.
  5. Kmlwx
    @Eskimo Joe - Not that it will alleviate your concerns of being shafted - but some models even focus a chunk of the activity NE of DC. HREF updraft helicity seems to show this. Some of the modeling seems to indicate there may be a dead-zone between a batch to the NE and a batch to the S. That could also be a failure mode for us locally...
  6. Kmlwx
    Always a risk! However, I'm cautiously optimistic that there aren't a ton of models (at least for now) that skunk big chunks of the area. A few DO favor south - but even those blow up good activity over the DC/Baltimore metros.
  7. Kmlwx
    I know sim reflectivity is not the and-all-be-all...BUT - I've got to say that the guidance is now pretty consistently spitting out sim reflectivity panels that are the most impressive I've seen for this area in some time. Not this weak sauce isolated crap or a weak line...this looks like an actual threat if things come together correctly.
  8. Kmlwx
    Liking the looks of many of the CAMs - but they are all still at range. Will be interesting to see how the modeling trends tomorrow.
  9. Kmlwx

    Radar outage

    Kmlwx replied to PSWired's topic in Mid Atlantic

    TDCA and TADW should be up
  10. Kmlwx
    "We take" "Tasty" " "
  11. Kmlwx
    Look at this from the 6z Euro for 3z on Monday evening.
  12. Kmlwx
    Unfortunately these days it feels like marginal is the new general thunder, slight is the new SEE TEXT and so forth. I honestly think we will see even fewer moderate risk days in our region with the introduction of the enhanced category.
  13. Kmlwx
    Here's a screenshot of part of the wind profile from a 12z NAM nest sounding for Monday afternoon - SRH has increased on modeling too it seems.
  14. Kmlwx
    12z NAM (12km) has some beefy soundings in the area for Monday. Timing (at least for now) looks good - I'm onboard (for now)
  15. Kmlwx
    From a superstitious weenie standpoint...I'll take it. Last thing we need is a D3 slight or enhanced going to crap.
  16. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS run roundup - At the 84hr timeslot, on the domain/sector that is most aligned with our area, most analogs don't have much for our area. Last analog #15 is June 1/2, 2012. If you use the box that is still relevant to us but a little further west, that June 1/2, 2012 analog goes to #12. A few analogs on there as well that got us some severe. Hour 108 has July 23, 2008 (will have to look that up) and a bunch of more toned down events. Interestingly - there's a few analogs that were seemingly minor events but centered on or near the Mid-Atlantic.
  17. Kmlwx
    A rumble of thunder or two here - heavy rain now in Colesville, MD
  18. Kmlwx
    I'm going to sound like a broken record - but we have tossed around this discussion in the past - anecdotally I remember a lot more "solid squall lines" in the 90s and earlier 2000s and severe events since then have seemed to be more shorter line segments or more spotty. Interesting that some of the analogs have had a lot of 1990s events in the mix - and that looks like a pretty long/solid line portrayed on the GFS. Again - just me with my pointless musings.
  19. Kmlwx
    12z GFS suggests best mid-level lapse rates go mostly south of DC. But sim reflectivity panels still look excellent - damn impressive for a model that isn't the short range/higher res stuff
  20. Kmlwx
    Thinking like you is either a really good sign (weather smarts) or a really bad sign (total weather cynic). It's definitely not as prolific as June 2006 - but just how the "band" of precip is moving - almost the anniversary too!
  21. Kmlwx
    I just pulled up the radar from June 26, 2006 - nowhere near as widespread (I figured) but again - it's a loose match.
  22. Kmlwx
    Not saying it will be anything close to (it won't be) this event - but the radar at this moment reminds me a bit of June 2006...downpours lining up on a SSW-->NNE trajectory.
  23. Kmlwx
    Latest GFS runs have backed off a bit on the quality of the remnant EML. That said - we do have a Day 4 15% outlook area from SPC for portion of the region.
  24. Kmlwx
    Impressive sim reflectivity signal on the 18z GFS for Monday afternoon/evening.
  25. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance has decent severe signal at 84, 108 AND 132. Best threat window we've had all year. June 4, 2008 is now the top analog on the 84hr frame! (for our domain/sector) June 1, 2012 is showing up in the analog mix at the 108hr mark as well - though not one of the higher analogs.
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