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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    My weenieism is hoping the line can bully the outflow boundary back a bit. Not saying you can't get storms behind the outflow...just that the threat would be more heavy rain oriented versus severe t'storms. I think Potomac to Chevy Chase to College Park looks pretty good for storms. You can tell the outflow has made the northern part of the line really messy/weak looking. Line is fighting hard, though - the part right east of Dulles has a lot of lightning detected on it.
  2. Kmlwx
    Outflow from the northern MD cells earlier has made it down to almost Gaithersburg and then over to Sandy Spring/Norwood and then to Simpsonville. Not long before it is knocking on my northern doorstep.
  3. Kmlwx
    The CIMMS shapefile seems slow to update today. Has routinely been a bit behind the storms. Thinking if that outflow from the MD storms gets to/past you, you might be ruled out for severe (but perhaps not for flooding). Matches well with the actual radar picture right now. It looks like it'll get to me before the actual storms. Thinking South of a line from Leesburg to Rockville to Hyattsville perhaps for best odds now.
  4. Kmlwx
    Velocity is NOTHING like it was earlier - but a few decent looking pixels SW of Leesburg. On mesoanalysis earlier I noted a little "tongue" of better MLLRs running through Central Maryland still. Plenty of CAPE - and not lead cells have ruined the airmass in MBY yet. Let's see how strong it can cycle back up to in the next 30 mins or so. It has likely already had it's peak. But not ruling out a wind core forming again.
  5. Kmlwx
    The radar is probably broken and giving a false return in Leesburg
  6. Kmlwx
    Well...out of what is currently that "line" or cluster - the most intense part might be heading right for you.
  7. Kmlwx
    Yep - decent uptick in lightning in two little "pods" one between Charles Town and Hillsboro and another in the previously mentioned area. And as I type this even more lightning now showing up. Let's see if it makes a run at higher end severe again.
  8. Kmlwx
    Some increase in reflectivity now between just west of Purcellville down towards NW of Middleburg. Whether it's just the radar or actually cycling up again remains to be seen. LWX radar has a hail marker again in GR2AE. Increase in lightning in that area as well which would indicate intensification.
  9. Kmlwx
    CIMMS probsevere placefile has been steadily coming down on the hail percentages on the VA line. But wind probs have stayed very elevated.
  10. Kmlwx
    I'm not sure it technically weakened - I think maybe there's some radar stuff and how it interacts with the terrain perhaps? Or just how reflectivity is imaged with the higher terrain. I remember there being tons of reports pretty solidly as it came through the mountains and into our area - and reduction in the LSRs from that event to the west might have been from just less population to report severe.
  11. Kmlwx
    Though - given our propensity to fail at weather around here - I get where he's coming from - Certainly seems like that complex has overall trended down just a tad recently. My main question is whether there will be new activity or if that existing stuff will "rejuvenate" or cycle back up.
  12. Kmlwx
    Over/under on 3 raindrops for YBY?
  13. Kmlwx
    I'm watching your area and Western MoCo...that outflow coming down from the north could interact with the incoming activity if it's timed right...maybe. My eyes are peeled on the TIAD radar for signs of new initiation. ETA: In fact...looking at visible satellite - there's perhaps hints of some agitation of the cumulus clouds right ahead of the big time storms/clouds from the west and north. Certainly watching for new development in the areas mentioned above. West/Central MoCo, Potomac River, Leesburg area, down to Haymarket maybe.
  14. Kmlwx
    LWX with the big polygons now!
  15. Kmlwx
    Can see clear outflow boundary racing out from the Northern Maryland activity. It's draped from like Brunswick east to Mount Airy right now. - That is likely to have *some* sort of impact on the incoming stuff...or it may trigger new activity in the parts of the area that have not had storms yet.
  16. Kmlwx
    Winchester cell (now seems to be weakening a bit - (good job Cappucci lol) still has mostly an easterly component to the motion. The southern part split off and kind of took a turn to the south. Interested to see if the northern updraft just sort of peters out now as the southern one cranks.
  17. Kmlwx
    Can see it on radar as well. Guessing one will come - you may want to phone it onto LWX!
  18. Kmlwx
    If we are going by echo tops, the southern cell in that complex (heading for Front Royal) may be trying to go dominant. Not sure it will succeed but we'll see. It has the higher tops right now.
  19. Kmlwx
    The storm will likely cycle up and down at times - one thing I haven't noted yet is outflow racing out in front of it - which usually happens super quickly in our severe events. Additionally, plenty of CAPE-laden air is in the area east of the activity. So there's no obvious argument for a complete collapse. I'm somewhat doubtful it's still putting down 80mph winds when it gets closer to the metro areas...but I might be surprised with how impressive this thing looks.
  20. Kmlwx
    It's in range of the TIAD radar now as well. So we'll have an additional radar to watch velocity.
  21. Kmlwx
    Found a 102.9mph pixel on the KLWX site radar scans on RadarScope.
  22. Kmlwx
    CIMMS probsevere is >= 95% for hail and wind on that complex still.
  23. Kmlwx
    Looks like a bookend vortex kind of setup. Rotation markers showing up on GR2AE approaching Winchester in that little curl in the reflectivity.
  24. Kmlwx
    Yeah - if you watch the loop of VIL/VILD on radar there are two cores. One heading for Winchester and the other down further south heading in the general direction of Front Royal.
  25. Kmlwx
    Cappucci "it will weaken" - he's really on the weakening train. Like duh...it can't stay that strong for hundreds of miles - of course it will weaken. But he's hammering the "it will weaken" headline HARD.
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