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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Radar pretty weak sauce so far. But some of the CAMs liked more around the 0z timeframe.
  2. Kmlwx
    FFG is like 1.5-2" for 1 hour in DC proper. A good complex of storms could do that I guess. Elsewhere is 2-3 inches.
  3. Kmlwx
    14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run!
  4. Kmlwx
    Fairly respectable CAPE values across the area already. 1000+ for the metro corridor on MLCAPE and 2500+ SBCAPE. As forecast, we are on the southern fringe of a belt of shear. Mid-level lapse rates are not good, but low level lapse rates are steepening. DCAPE is lacking in the immediate metro corridor, better values in extreme southern Maryland and SEVA. We'll see if that expands with further heating. Theta-e is on the increase as well.
  5. Kmlwx
    CAMs look decent for some of us this afternoon. Seems it will be a garden variety severe day - a scattering of reports possible but nothing history-making.
  6. Kmlwx
    Seems a few good storms could be in the offing for this afternoon. Better chance tomorrow. Summer doldrums otherwise!
  7. Kmlwx
    Post that in the severe thread and bring home an MCS!
  8. Kmlwx
    Little shower in SW Loudoun County.
  9. Kmlwx
    I don't think I was much help - just model perusing!
  10. Kmlwx
    Seems it could be more widespread but TBD of course
  11. Kmlwx
    So far it's an empty radar. Seems the signal for an isolated storm has backed off further on the models. Most guidance has a shower or two around, though.
  12. Kmlwx
    LWX has been watching this afternoon is a storm or two can break through the low odds. We are right about the time when our severe events get less widespread and more spotty (but can still pack major punches). These types of severe events tend to be harder to diagnose/see from farther out. I'm definitely watching the weekend. July tends to need a big time trigger to do widespread severe...otherwise it's the kind of storms that blow up nice and tall but collapse after a short time. Lottery odds...if you get under one you could get minivan sized hail for a few mins before the storm kills itself.
  13. Kmlwx
    I mean I've seen some tasty CFS runs recently
  14. Kmlwx
    HR132 from the 12z CIPS run.
  15. Kmlwx
    Strong CIPS signal in the extended panels at 168hrs
  16. Kmlwx
    Rain intensity much lower now - band has weakened a good bit. Though it seems more activity will be off and on into the night.
  17. Kmlwx
    CLAM2 stream gauge is already seeing rises (as to be expected) with the heavy rain overhead.
  18. Kmlwx
    Looks like this N/S line is lined up roughly with the front.
  19. Kmlwx
    Flood warning for chunk of DC metro (including DC proper)
  20. Kmlwx
    Some really nice lightning and thunder here now. Loud cracks and rolling rumbles following. Let's see how long these training lines setup for and if they stay over the same general areas. Could be a long night for local first responders.
  21. Kmlwx
    Training potential now setting up for DC if this keeps up. Radar looks a lot more active locally than it has. Getting loud thunder here north of Silver Spring now.
  22. Kmlwx
    Could it be a volunteer fire dept? I know small towns use it to summon the volunteers back for calls. Or a weekly test of sorts?
  23. Kmlwx
    That backdoor boundary seems to be killing us.
  24. Kmlwx
    Saw one on GR2AE as well. Wonder if some of that is due to the wind from the storms blowing up against the higher terrain and inducing some circulations.
  25. Kmlwx
    WPC frontal analysis shows the backdoor front running like this - Would certainly explain the death of activity in the DC/Baltimore corridor.
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