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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    I want warnings to be hoisted. Why hasn't LWX hoisted warnings yet? Seems like there should be warnings with this package. It's less than 24 hours away...what's taking them so long? CTP already hoisted them!
  2. Kmlwx
    Woke up in Colesville to a below-freezing temp but the rain was just coming down too hard to accrete. Wet roads only. Better chance of hydroplaning on my way in to work versus sliding on ice.
  3. Kmlwx
    34/27 and that dewpoint is on the rise.
  4. Kmlwx
    I understand where you are coming from. But for ice...even .01" of accretion in the wrong spot could cause a crash - and if that involves a bus everyone will complain they didn't play it safe. School systems play it SUPER safe with icing.
  5. Kmlwx
    36/23 in Colesville
  6. Kmlwx
    Distance will matter as usual. The father NW, the more icy. We will be right on the line in the Colesville/Wheaton/Cloverly areas. Probably minor icing for us
  7. Kmlwx
    But remember - if it is coming down steadily - it's not likely to accrete as easily. Far NW suburbs will definitely be hazardous. I think @mappy is being quite realistic with how our ice events normally turn out. A few spots will definitely be in ice storm territory - but it won't be a widespread significant ice storm outside of FAR NW areas. I'm expecting a slippery sidewalk or two north of Silver Spring, MD...but not much more.
  8. Kmlwx
    Does WB have the FRAM product? It tends to be a lot more realistic with ZR accretion versus the ZR from QPF alone product.
  9. Kmlwx
    Yep - and all of those factors contribute to why significant ice storms are exceedingly rare in most of our area (except in favored areas, perhaps).
  10. Kmlwx
    I'm much more cynical now lol
  11. Kmlwx
    That's right around when I started exiting my full-on weenie years and becoming a much more balanced weather nerd.
  12. Kmlwx
    The true Confucius of the Mid-Atlantic. Your posts are always *chefs kiss*
  13. Kmlwx
    Seems like the kind of day where a bunch of cells with little or no lightning and tops under 35kft will all seem to take on mini-supercell characteristics and perhaps put down a brief tornado. Chaotic kind of days.
  14. Kmlwx
    I'm a little more in today and less meh - but still pretty meh. The latest (06z) NAM nest looked decent. CIPS had a bit of a signal as well...at least as much as you could expect off-peak season. SREF even paints some sigtor ingredients in our region tomorrow on the 21z frame.
  15. Kmlwx
    This is true - especially if it's very dynamic at 500mb (negative tilted trough, well timed, and with some overlap in whatever CAPE is available and the shear and forcing). November 2006 had a very dynamic event.
  16. Kmlwx
    As is common in these out-of-season events...the NAM and NAM nest favor south and east of the metros for any enhanced activity. meh.
  17. Kmlwx
    Latest NAM nest puts the bullseye in NE Maryland and into SEPA. 12km NAM doesn't have that same max at all.
  18. Kmlwx
    PWS has max daily gust of 14.3mph since midnight. That means it was quite breezy as even in summer time storms this thing is hard pressed to get above 10 or 11 (it's not an ideal site as it is sheltered pretty well by trees and structures). The NAM nest and longer range HRRR both show a good amount of rain to come in the next "wave"
  19. Kmlwx
    The new 18z NAM rolling in suggests that there could be a period of good wind gusts in the metro areas between 6z and 9z - higher gusts than the last run.
  20. Kmlwx
    Took me longer than I'd like to admit to figure out that video higher up on this page was auto-playing. Somebody is going to have a shock when they load this page this AM at work....
  21. Kmlwx
    BECS for Southern Maryland and flurries for the Mason-Dixon Line
  22. Kmlwx
    The warned cell to the west has ping pong and ball sized hail in the warning.
  23. Kmlwx
    60 percent chance of a watch per the mesoscale discussion.
  24. Kmlwx
    Yes - the Euro pretty much ingests all pieces of data. They have the best ingestion/assimilation in the world.
  25. Kmlwx
    FWIW the 12z HRRR looked a bit better in terms of reflectivity versus the 06z run.
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