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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    All that cloudiness/shower activity just south of the area is heading north. Seems the area outlined in red is where the good sun is going to be. It's still early, though...and it's also possible the breaks in the clouds down near Farmville, VA can get up here after the junk moves through. I'm liking the area that SPC has in the 45% wind still. Matches relatively well with this more sunny area. I wouldn't be surprised to see it tugged just a bit more out of the DC/Baltimore area on the next update (maybe removing Baltimore.
  2. Kmlwx
    One foot in and one foot out. Only way to be a weather enthusiast
  3. Kmlwx
    There is some junk stating to form in the cloudiness down in VA (Lynchburg to CHO area). That could really lower instability potential today. Still think odds are good at strong storms - but the usual routes to failure are present. Visible satellite does show a decent amount of clear areas from around Winchester up into the Frederick, MD area and then up into southern PA.
  4. Kmlwx
    HRRR the past few runs has been really stormy. Seems to be one of the most aggressive pieces of guidance at the moment.
  5. Kmlwx
    Have to keep the junky storms/showers out of the area until later. NAM nest shows some stuff out ahead that may dampen the threat. Even so, it still delivers a nice line around 20z.
  6. Kmlwx
    Definitely not sounding the "meh" yet, but tomorrow around 9am may be a different story. The curse of the day 2 ENH. Watch us wake up to a slight with 2/15/5 for tor, wind, hail.
  7. Kmlwx
    Point taken, but it's not the only product that doesn't look overly impressive. We'll see how things look tomorrow AM.
  8. Kmlwx
    Wish the models would be a little more enthused. HRDRPS looked decent, but a lot of the models are kind of anemic with activity tomorrow - at least compared to our higher end days. Not that I'm expected an outbreak...but for a day 2 enhanced - and one that @Eskimo Joe uttered the mod possible phrase...I'd expect more. I'm cautiously optimistic that I'm just reading too much into sim reflectivity and parameters - but the oranges and reds on supercell composite parameter just aren't there on the guidance that I'm looking at. No doubt that the area sees storm activity tomorrow afternoon...but I'm having some doubts as to whether it will be an ENH or MOD day. My mental storm prediction level is at a slight right now.
  9. Kmlwx
    Not that it means a ton 24 hours out, but some of the Sim reflectivity has left a little to be desired. Definitely a solid setup though. I'm a little concerned the best activity goes N of our area. @mappyville looks solid
  10. Kmlwx
  11. Kmlwx
    Large Day 3 Slight Risk from SPC for our region. Also runs south and way north into the northeast.
  12. Kmlwx
    Looking ahead - CIPS analogs still aren't really enthused with any severe potential for the next while. There does seem to be some uptick in the longer range analogs beyond 240hrs. That's way out there, though. We'll have to see if it's a snoozer of a spring severe season for the immediate DC area or if there is a rapid uptick as we get into our climo butter zone. We usually get a window from May into most of June where we can get some decent CAPE combined with still decent wind fields. Once we get to late June/July it tends to get more pulsey in nature as the shear is usually less impressive.
  13. Kmlwx
    PSA for GRAE users - version 3 is out and can be upgraded for a discount if you have v2.
  14. Kmlwx
    CIPS is relatively quiet for tomorrow - but does have May 13, 2000 and May 6, 1991 in the mix.
  15. Kmlwx
    I'm meh-ing for now.
  16. Kmlwx
    Honestly it looks even sub-meh at this point. I'm not even tracking this one anymore. It's still early in the season anyhow. We need to wait for warmer temps, higher dews.
  17. Kmlwx
    Meh
  18. Kmlwx
    Next Wed/Thur may have something. Way too far out for now.
  19. Kmlwx
    "It was a dark and stormy night"
  20. Kmlwx
    The amount of lightning/thunder is really respectable for a March 31st event. Imagine this kind of wind shear with May/June instability...
  21. Kmlwx
    Real good thunder here a few mins ago. Strike was less than 1.5 miles away based on the icon on Radarscope.
  22. Kmlwx
    It's possible that those lose their punch as they enter the air stabilized by the current Washington area activity.
  23. Kmlwx
    Looking more broad and less impressive on latest scans from both LWX and TDWRs.
  24. Kmlwx
    TOR warn for immediate metro.
  25. Kmlwx
    Area near Tysons/McLean still looks semi interesting on the TDWRs.
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