Kmlwx

Silver Spring (downtown) looks like they are getting dumped on. Very little movement with this activity. Could pose a renewed FF risk if it's not short lived.

The one thing NE has going for them is the geography. Similar to how Hatteras gets hit because it juts out from the coast - similar geography for places like Cape Cod. I imagine if the Delmarva had a big appendage jutting east - the region would have more tropical.

Was driving back from Annapolis this morning - not a fun drive!

The fat lady is warming up.

Still not really much development going on to the south of that line. Nice storm for HGR though it seems.

Parameters remain decent - earlier mesoscale discussion indicates there is still some hope for renewed activity.

Must be a microclimate - cloudy here.

There is likely to be renewed activity. Where exactly that impacts remains to be seen.

Both of those cells look "hooky" on TBWI. They look less good on LWX. But they are definitely "mini"

Watching it on TBWI. It looks like it could be the real thing if it keeps improving. ETA: ARea near Woodstock, MD also now looking interesting on TBWI.

Watch the area near Laurel/Maryland City. There is a hint of something trying there.

This is sort of what I foresee us watching for later on. Again, best odds north of I-70.

We are paying back for the flooding rains in parts of the area the past week or so - and all the pulse severe. In all seriousness - maybe we just bought too heavily into this stuff. Big time pocket of clearing behind this stuff.

16z HRRR buys into the 2nd line later being the dominant one. But it's mainly for I-70 and north.

Though at this moment I'd tend to agree with the doo doo assessment. We'll see how things play out for the remainder of the afternoon. I see a warning up in PA now.

And...cells won't look particularly beefy in a setup like this. Even the stuff in PW and Loudoun right now could produce even if reflectivity doesn't look like textbook severe.

TDCA has a nice tiny cell just south of Alexandria. I know models yesterday were focusing any 2nd line on the northern parts of the area.

I know there was some work done on that area of piping last year - but not sure if it was that exact part where the line comes into the house. It may have been pretty darn old. The amount of water that was coming in was definitely more than a little. I'm pretty sure had we not had the water alarms we'd have woken up in the morning to a decent amount of flooding in the basement. We haven't had anything like the rain from that night since then - but a few downpours and there's been zero leaking. We've got a dehumidifier running now to dry things out. Added two more water alarms to other parts of the basement. For $11 and a 9V battery - it's so worth it. House is near our street (up on a hill though) - but it's a dead end street. Probably fewer than 10 cars a day drive on it.

Little tropical shower here in Colesville, MD now.

That's certainly the dominant cell right now. The little cluster north in Loudoun has lost a lot of its punch. This is a pretty classic looking tropical remnants radar depiction for us. There's a lot of junk east of that primary corridor, though - wonder if that may serve to dampen instability a bit. Though - it's not one of those events we need 3K CAPE for. 500-1000 will probably be sufficient. The stuff south of Bowling Green also bears watching as it gets further north.

That corridor is looking better with time.

This is probably the corridor to watch. One thing to note - we won't be looking for towering supercells today. This type of setup could produce little/brief spinnys even from cells that don't look terrible impressive in terms of base reflectivity.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=822&yr=2021

It's what sells clicks and follows though.

Gotta love the all caps and danger red font.