Kmlwx

Radar looks pretty meh for that metro area warning - granted I haven't looked at the TDWRs

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE

Some big a$$ polygons today now from LWX. That placefile for GR that EJ sent a few weeks ago (maybe longer?) is spectacular. Love how conservative it is.

The TDWRs have some sort of boundary in an arc shape from near Laurel to the eastern side of the beltway and then down towards ADW. Is that the bay breeze? Movement seems a little off for the bay breeze, though.

Pretty good example of outflow in VA - everything behind that arc of outflow between say Middleburg and just N of Culpeper has gotten very meh-worthy. But north and south of that are still cranking away with good cells.

Latest radar interpretation: Cell heading for Culpeper is pretty nice looking. And the Boonsboro area cell still is packing a punch. Purcellville cell has a hail marker now - so that may be pulsing up. Everything between there and the Culpeper cell, though looks meh.

Know you've mentioned this in past events too. Something is whacky with my hygrometer it seems - reading an 84 Td right now

Not often you see solid warnings from M/D line now all the way down to Madison, VA.

Probably not a ton of population out there. I went to a cabin in Sperryville a few years ago and barely could get one bar unless I was on top of the ridge. I think they've added a cell tower in recent years...

We've talked anecdotally about it in years past - but radar kind of looks like the longggg lines of continuous storms from the 90s and early 2000s. That kicker @Eskimo Joe - mentioned earlier today is definitely putting the work in thus far. We'll see what happens to the east...the HRRR kind of had a tendency to kill off storms as they approached the metros - but IMO it hasn't been great the past few days. Perhaps the pulsey nature is throwing guidance for a loop a bit with no organized trigger.

Pretty much solid warnings from the M/D line down to Warrenton. Warning happy day.

Outflow evident on radar near Warrenton. Would expect everything behind that to be more of a heavy rain threat for now. Cells to watch now are up near Boonsboro, and then any new developing ones.

Complex heading for Boonsboro area is pulsing up now. Warned for 70mph now.

As expected - storm motions aren't particularly fast. We'll see how this activity does once it comes out of the mountains. Likely that we'll see outflow racing out from these shortly.

Now warned for 80mph and golf ball hail. Tops are exceeding 55kft.

Looks like a big downburst could be coming with this one - BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Southeastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... * Until 330 PM EDT. * At 249 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hume, or 8 miles southeast of Front Royal, moving east at 5 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

Front Royal cell is definitely the dominant one thus far.

ML lapse rates aren't as trash as normal either.

Well not quite "up the bay" but a heck of a track.

The 18z GFS has the mythical up the bay track for a tropical system

It's funny that it's kind of following the corridor where the earlier cluster mostly skipped around. I barely saw any rain from the earlier stuff. Looks like a new cell may be pulsing up on the front end of the dying stuff now.

Loudoun storm has departed the earlier warning. Severe probs are going way down now.

Severe wind probs are increasing again on that Loudoun cell after reducing a bit earlier. It may be cycling back up.

Lightning struck an apartment complex in Germantown. 2nd alarm.

Good wind signature on that Loudoun cell. Thinking it will gust out long before it gets to me in Eastern MoCo - but for now it looks dang good. Storms doing a great job of splitting around me for now.