Kmlwx

Severe T'storm Watch for western portions of the area. It seems to be less frequently as of the past few years for them to segment the area in events like this. Perhaps a more strongly worded watch for us later if the trends continue towards a decent severe event? The probs on the watches so far have bene pretty low.

18z HRRR might be a smidge earlier again - but it's tiny adjustments at this point.

Could be a bit later given the timing even. Nighttime severe should make for a heck of a lightshow!

17z HRRR looks to focus the threat around Baltimore proper. Kind of amazing how far NWP has come. The complex has mostly been shifting around like a 50 mile or less range in placement.

Can't be mad at this map....

I remember we went through a stretch after 2012 when everyone was calling every line of storms a derecho. That got old quicker than TWC naming winter storms!

Nope. That's just a line of storms. Perhaps it may become a QLCS.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0965.html

No real changes to the 1630z SPC update.

Same general timeframe on that HRRR run - maybe more like 2z-3z for you. It looks like cells pop ahead of the original complex.

Latest HRRR might have even sped it up again. Has cells breaking out ahead of the complex during the 1-2z timeframe.

Noticed this as well. Looks decent. If we can nudge the timing even another hour or so earlier, I'll feel even better. Could be a fun night for lightning pictures.

The new 12z run of the NAM nest is perhaps an hour or so faster. If we add in that storms tend to clear the area faster than expected in most cases - that could bode well. Still bad timing - but a touch better.

Some of those tracks (if the low is still decently discernable) could be good for a tropical remnant TOR threat as well. Would be fun to see both the severe and tropical threads be hot at the same time.

12z HRRR sends the complex towards us and then pops new cells almost right over the area. But they don't crank until they are a bit east. I like the general idea of the panels, though. Keeps me interested (for now).

The wet ground is a good point. I'm really not sure what to think about this one - it seems the short range guidance is pretty consistent with having a little tongue of instability (despite the late night timing) match up with the shear. But timing is one of the primary things that likes to kill our chances around here (that and being socked in with clouds). I did notice SPC introduced the 2% tor probs with the last outlook update. Not much mention to go with it in the discussion, though. Probably as good of a look as we'll see during the doldrum periods of summer. Funny that you mentioned we'd already gotten beyond our severe season and this event kind of sneaks up.

You got one foot in on this one? Or are you going for wedges in MoCo?

NAM nest has the line arriving in the midnight timeframe tomorrow night. That's pretty poor timing. BUT - as I said above, we do tend to get things a bit earlier/faster than expected. Nonetheless, midnight is a pretty late window. Even an hour or two earlier might not be enough to get things done. If the timing on this was like 4-6 hours earlier, with the shear progged things would be really interesting. We'll see what the early morning runs show - and 12z will be useful as well...heck - with that timing even the 18z suite tomorrow will be useful

And FWIW - the long range 0z HRRR is still bullish - bringing two decent UH tracks over the area tomorrow evening.

I'm not sure that's a big ask either - things do tend to come through a bit quicker than forecast on our severe events. Not totally buying into tomorrow - many of the CAMs are pretty lackluster...but I'm intrigued at least. IF things can line up I could see somebody getting a legit report out of this event.

DMing you

18z NAM nest is lameeee for tomorrow. The 18z long range HRRR was pretty wild for Central Maryland tomorrow night. The timing isn't the best (overnight hours into Tuesday). If we can speed things up a bit maybe?

Frostburg had an F4 that day apparently.

CIPS for the 36hr mark (on the 12z run coming out now) is fairly bullish. Jun 2, 1998 is on the analogs lol

It's also possible that current complex of storms could lay down some boundaries to focus later activity - again - most likely west of the most populated areas.