Kmlwx

Hr 120 is lighting up on the 0z CIPS run. Of note is that it's highlighting the potential threat on multiple domains - gives me some higher confidence it's picking up on something.

Definitely cool to see that some trees have been left almost untouched while others have the top 1/6th or so completely browned at the tips.

Hasn't been an audible song here in multiple days. Dead ones around, though - and a few zombie-like ones trying unsuccessfully to fly near the ground.

The southern end of that northern piece just missed me here in Colesville.

Might as well tear it down now.

Pretty anemic radar now.

And there you go...warned for 70mph.

Another core of strong winds may be forming near Middleburg. That's the next area to watch as it heads east. Already some 55kt+ pixels in there

Some sort of interference. There has been a lot of talk about it during prior precip events going back a year or so (or more).

Gotta say - I'm not a fan of the huge warnings LWX puts out in cases like these. The wind core is likely to be pretty small - and having such a large warning doesn't allow them to localize a small portion of the warning to indicate higher winds. Suppose that core of winds cycles back up in a later scan - with a warning update you'd have to either warn the entire polygon for wind that only a tiny part will see...or keep the warning winds lower. Smaller warnings allow you to more precisely communicate potential.

I feel like we all anecdotally feel this way (myself included). I'm easy of you (north of Silver Spring) and I feel like they do the same thing here.

The trajectory of that wind core looks good for me - but it's still early...any deviation could mean a vastly different outcome this far east. It'll get at least a swath of MoCo. Remains to be seen which parts.

We will have to see whether the outflow runs too far out ahead of these. They are heading into some very juicy/unstable air. But if outflow rushes out, that could dampen severe chances behind it (and increase the heavy rain risk).

That area where the 70mph warned cell is right now is a *very* common area for damaging wind storms to form during our severe events. Believe July 25, 2010 had a core of winds show up there before sweeping across Loudoun, MoCo etc.

That's a pretty regular occurrence in the region. A lot of times we don't see long tracking squall lines from the west side of the mountains freight train their way through. Boundaries like lee troughs and bay breezes tend to influence storm development locally in the LWX WFO. Terrain circulations are big too.

I know grapefruit was in use for a while. Didn't know limes were in use, though

That's pretty standard since the watch outline data is released and coordinated with the local WFOs before the site refreshes generally. It's pretty quick behind, though - already now showing up.

Ian over on Twitter seems interested enough

My dew has even risen a half degree or so. Good signs that we aren't mixing out yet.

That watch box is HUGE

DCAPE very good as well.

For the moment - my dewpoint is a soupy 72. Let's see where that goes into the afternoon.

the NAM nest is depicting some pockets of nearly 5000 SBCAPE today.

And yet another thing to add to my "wall of text" above. A factor I didn't even think about when writing that post... You'd have to assume that more densely populated areas will report larger numbers of severe reports in a comparable event versus a more rural area. Thus...that could bias those percentage maps to show a more "honking" kind of look when it might look much more toned down in less densely populated areas. I'm not aware (but I haven't checked) to see if there's any population adjustment to those maps. So you'd wonder if a "corrected" map of what I posted earlier might look a lot less impressive. ETA: Just look at the relative minimum in the percentages on that map in WV.

Another note on the CIPS stuff for those who aren't familiar with it. The severe stuff on there usually has a tier for "Percent of analogs with at least 1 severe report within X number of km" and then a tier for the same thing but for 5 or more reports. It makes it a quick way to see 1) Are the analogs hinting at severe potential and then 2) Our garden variety severe or something a bit more substantial. If you notice the percentages for 1+ report are lighting up like a Christmas tree, but the 5 or more is pretty lackluster...can be a good indication that the analogs are suggesting a decent shot at a window of severe potential but not anything on the higher end. And of course...the range and such all come into play - we've seen things fizzle from way closer in than 168 hours. I also like to poke around to look at the different domains they have available. Sometimes the analogs from one domain will show a big swath of potential for us, while the domain over the Mid-Atlantic will show nada or very limited potential. And of course...analogs are just that. Rough guides on what happened when certain aspects of the pattern/atmosphere were in a similar state. Doesn't mean it will match up on a subsequent "match" in conditions. AND FURTHER - CIPS uses the NAM for the shorter range stuff, and then GFS for the longer range stuff. There's not (to my knowledge) any factoring in of the Euro, CMC, ICON etc. So you'll get the American models - but if they are vastly wrong it won't mean s**t. During severe season (I guess during winter too) - I usually do a quick glance at CIPS to decide if I want to do a more indepth look at any of the modeling from overnight. If it's pretty dead on CIPS, I'll usually peak on the forums in case there's something that the mets here are watching - and if not...usually safe to go mow the lawn or enjoy the day.