Kmlwx

We should of course expect it to fade out with time - or if not that, the timing will suck when game time arrives. There's some signature way out at 312hr too. I feel like I've become the king of over using CIPS - but I mean...it's the "quickest" way to get a sense of what the GFS is showing out in range without doing the analysis yourself That's one of the more robust signatures I think we've seen this year. And having it honk that hard at 168 is pretty eye opening. I think tomorrow afternoon could have some decent storms - Tuesday looks dead right now.

Extended range CIPS has a pretty good signature (especially by this year's standards) out at 168 hours.

Suspect there will be a rogue cell or two. But my hopes are pretty low.

Getting some limited sunshine here now. Could help uncap things.

Pretty gloomy here at the moment...

Will be interesting to see if the HRRR is out to lunch or onto something. 00z NAM will be interesting to see as well to see if it aligns with those thoughts at all.

They made a bit of a comeback today - more audible in the trees in the Silver Spring area. But nowhere near as loud as before. There were a lot of almost dead ones falling out of the trees today too - and then struggling to fly.

The 12z GFS has a really nice looking cluster coming through tomorrow around peak heating. It's tough to evaluate how exactly it goes down with the 3 or 6 hour panels. It seems to be on its own right now - would love to see that trend similarly on the CAMs - most look snoozy for now.

That is the absolute story of our severe chances here in the Mid-Atlantic - I'm obviously still watching...but think it's more of just with a one toe in for right now. Tuesday is wayyyy too far out to do any higher end analysis on at this point. The superstitious part of me is happy we are still only at a marginal for tomorrow - we do better when SPC increases last minute lol

Many of the CAMs look pretty lame for Saturday. We'll have to wait and see what the trends look like as we get close. LWX is still honking about Tuesday's potential.

12z NAM (at range, of course) puts the best parameter space to our north up in PA for Saturday. Again, still early - and will be interesting to see where the target shifts around.

Oh I didn't think you were lol

The 12km NAM does show a decent amount of sunshine for Saturday morning. But the GFS says no. I agree - it's too early. I'm out mostly for now.

Glad the whole idea of them staying strong until early July wasn't the case. They were cool for a bit - and then quickly became annoying.

Peaceful quiet here in the Silver Spring area as well. Thinking the heavy rain the other night may have been enough to really thin the herd - and they were already past peak anyway.

It kind of makes you wonder how a 2021 DC/Baltimore area would handle that.

Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win.

Euro tracks the remnants right through our area next week

The Latest HRRR is seemingly a bit more scattered with the sim reflectivity. We're probably in chips fall mode now.

Next hour or two should be interesting to watch on radar.

My dewpoint has come back up to around 65, and GAI has recovered to 63. My mini-meltdown earlier is over. I'm feeling decent.

East of I-95 is probably a better statement.

Yeah - it seemed like the HRRR and some of the other CAMs wanted to push a little tongue of instability and better moisture up right to around DC proper - or even a bit north. Seems like where that gets to or sets up will determine. I still overall like where I am in eastern MoCo, but if I was in Poolesville or even Gaithersburg, I'm not sure I'd feel super warm and fuzzy about a higher severe threat tonight. Meanwhile, if I was in Annapolis I'd feel really nice.

This map tells a pretty interesting story. You can tell where the lower dewpoint air has gotten to. Looks like right around I-95 may be the dividing line. Will have to hope I'm on the right side of that line to see some action.

One thing I'm not sure I like seeing so close to the metro areas - is GAI's dewpoint has dropped to 57. Even CGS is down to 59. The immediate DC stations like DCA, ADW etc are still in the 60s, though. My (potentially not the greatest) sensor here in Colesville has gone from the mid-upper 60s down to 61.7 for the dew. We'll ideally need to advect some of the higher dewpoint air back in for my liking. I don't think we are going to get it done with 50s dews. That potentially could be why some of the CAM runs have shown the activity really getting going only once east of I-95. Could be a little razor thin margin for those in places like MoCo and western half of Howard.