Kmlwx

I don't think you're ever talking out of your @ss when it comes to weather Then the fall has another window of sorts in September for some TOR related activity. This is of course ignoring any threat from tropical that could come August to October for the most part. Would seem to me that we are "due" (hate that term for the most part) for a derecho event. At least based on the average return periods for that type for stuff for the DC area.

Bet I know which camp wins out

April can perform under the right circumstances. I think April/May have slightly higher odds to go with in terms of things of the TOR variety. Probably into June too. But by June we tend to look for ring of fire type derecho stuff more so than tornadoes (other than an isolated event). All about lining up the shear that can be really good in spring with the instability that can be spectacular in the summer. By July we tend to be limited to the pulse severe stuff...don't get me wrong - a monster cell can blow up in July that delivers huge hail or major wind damage - but it's less likely to be the widespread mod risk type thing.

Wonder if the coming cold morning this week will slow/delay things.

No mounds at my parent's house or my place yet. But my parent's just had fresh mulch put down - so any holes *could* be concealed.

The super long range 6z HRRR has the activity waiting to fire until mainly east of the Chesapeake. 6z NAM nest still looks decent for a line, though.

NAM nest sim reflectivity certainly could look worse. I'll take it given that I'm not expecting much to begin with. Could keep us semi satisfied while we wait for something bigger to track.

All we've got for now - and really for the extended period as well... D4-8 discussion excerpt ...DISCUSSION... Low/mid-level winds will likely strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday as an upper trough moves eastward across these regions. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much low-level moisture will be present ahead of a cold front. If enough boundary-layer instability develops by Wednesday afternoon, then strong/damaging winds appear possible with any storms that can develop along or ahead of the quickly moving front. At this point, confidence in organized severe convection producing a swath of damaging winds remains too low to introduce 15% severe probabilities. Still, some severe risk appears possible from roughly eastern NC to southern NY, and this region may need to be included in low severe probabilities in a subsequent outlook.

It's not May yet...

We may end up being at early May for any appreciable severe threat (or later). CIPS is pretty much dormant for any analog related risk to our area for the next 1-2 weeks.

The last two storm days we've had - yesterday and the day last week, really have featured some nice lightning and thunder.

The ARW and NMMs have both been super paltry on sim reflectivity for multiple runs now. There was really only one long range HRRR run and one NAM nest run that got good storms into the area. Meh.

There's the marginal risk for tomorrow on the 1730z update.

Long range 6z HRRR looked pretty good, actually lol.

LOTS of thunder with this stuff. Long, rolling stuff too. Not bad for a day I expected to yield nothing.

Predator satiation theory as well. Fascinating - albeit kind of creepy looking creatures.

Something can always sneak up on us (just like snow in winter) but nothing "big" is showing up at this point. CIPS extended analogs don't show any signal for our region either. Late April is probably what we are looking at for now - or even early May. That's not atypical either. La Plata 2002 wasn't until late April. Still early for us.

GFS is pretty lackluster on parameters. We'll see.

2007 had the major glacier sleetbomb. That was VDay 2007.

Huge swath of the country is lit up on the extended CIPS analogs from last night's 0z runs for the 168hr timeframe.

Looks like we'll be waiting longer for a legit threat. CIPS isn't enthused on anything really on the extended analogs. Something could sneak up, of course.

NWS wasn't kidding when they said "low topped" and "shallow" - echo tops are completely unimpressive.

The watch probs are very low.

I find it semi humorous that the strongest part of the line is in the northern parts of the area - farthest away from the ENH risk to the south and east. Rest of the line looks paltry for now.

We'll see how these storms do as they roll off the higher terrain.