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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    People start paying attention when you pop in.
  2. Kmlwx
    18z NAM continues to look decent for Sunday. It does look slightly less robust in a few regards - but really it's noise. Seems the potential is still solidly on the table.
  3. Kmlwx
    LWX mentions next Wednesday as another potential strong thunderstorm threat - but says it could be more of a high shear/low CAPE kind of setup due to timing and limited warm air advection.
  4. Kmlwx
    That map is just comical!
  5. Kmlwx
    Seems the model biases are always this way. NAM always tends to show bonkers soundings/parameters and GFS is more muted. Could be the first "true" threat of the year - will it also be the first bust?
  6. Kmlwx
    I was kind of surprised to see the hatching for a D3 outlook. The outlook text reads less like a hatched day and more like a higher end SLGT day. Could just be because it's out in range for now. It looks like the NAM nest focuses the best parameters just to the west of the metro area, the 12k version had it in the immediate metro area and east. It looks like it still has that little meso-low type feature.
  7. Kmlwx
    The 12z NAM (12km) is kind of insane for Sunday now. It looks like it tries to pop a little low right along the Mason-Dixon line which really ramps up the potential. Supercell composite is very high for Sunday PM for a decent chunk of the area. Remove that little meso-low feature and things maybe aren't as robust. Will be interesting to see what the 3km looks like (at range of course). For March...this has some higher end potential.
  8. Kmlwx
    Take a look at this frame from the latest SREF on the SPC maps for 18z on Sunday............wow. That's some drool worthy stuff for @yoda
  9. Kmlwx
    Yeah the NAM looks pretty decent for Sunday around 18-21z. Let's see if it pans out. We are fringed by the hatching on that SPC outlook...but it's also day 3.
  10. Kmlwx
    Ummmm - did not expect that
  11. Kmlwx
    Looks as if we will keep waiting. Not much of anything of interest on the long range GFS either. Not surprised - but we'll see what April brings.
  12. Kmlwx
    The NAM is too fast for Friday as well. Would be too early in the day to maximize heating.
  13. Kmlwx
    Worth reminding the less frequent severe posters - it is still VERY early for our severe season. Anything this early is usually bonus gravy (sort of like November accumulating snow). April is even a bit early but can definitely have some beefier setups. May/June can be what either makes or breaks our severe weather season as a whole.
  14. Kmlwx
    That discussion does a good job of summarizing the potential outcomes. Anything from nothing to some severe weather. Covers all the bases
  15. Kmlwx
    I'll watch it with one eye for now. Not too shabby for March.
  16. Kmlwx
    This is the time of year when I start giving CIPS analogs some general glances to see what kinds of threats may be coming down the pike. It's still VERY early for our region. Patience.
  17. Kmlwx
    So many of our events are razor thin margins with timing or other factor. And 12 hours is often on the higher end of how we bust. Often it's the difference of just like 5-8 hours that kills us.
  18. Kmlwx
    Hopefully April will start to bring opportunities for us. But often we end up waiting until May/June for the meaty stuff.
  19. Kmlwx
    That doesn't look terrible for a VERY early season thunderstorm threat.
  20. Kmlwx
    Yeah 37 and rain sounds miserable. Well so does 33 and rain - if we can somehow luck our way into a few inches before we sprint into spring, I'm all for it. Didn't mean to come across as argumentative before (if I did). I'm mostly on the same train as you - but I just love pushing back any sustained heat as long as we can. Summer is long enough here!
  21. Kmlwx
    In March. Not in April or other months of course. Bring on the 70s and sun in April without question.
  22. Kmlwx
    March has been a bona fide winter storm month in recent years. And not even like the bold section - like actual accumulation events. If we can luck our way into that - I'd take a few inches of snow (even if it melts quickly) over a 70 degree day.
  23. Kmlwx
    To each their own - but keep the warmth at bay for now. I'd like to keep my A/C on the sidelines for as long as possible. Before you know it it'll be 95 degrees with a 70+ dewpoint. Now if it stays 65-70 and not humid - I'm all for it. Only time heat is acceptable to me is if it comes with interesting weather.
  24. Kmlwx
    If you get enough hail - you can count it as a blizzard.
  25. Kmlwx
    The distribution of users is about as anybody would have expected. No huge surprises! Looking forward to the link! Thank you!
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