Kmlwx

I think for TORs there's two definitions of "big" - there's widespread and then big as in a major tornado (like College Park or La Plata). Ivan was totally next level, though.

For widespread (meaty severe) you are absolutely right. I want to say that @Eskimo Joe has said in the past that our derecho return interval is like 4-6 years. But that 2012 one was not only a derecho but a violent one...so perhaps even less frequent on that. Severe weather around these parts is a real feast or famine type of thing. Where winter wx tends to impact large swaths - big severe is usually in pretty narrow corridors - even when it's a "big" day. Think about the situation where a few big boy cells go up and drop baseball sized hail. 97% of the area likely will feel like they "missed out" but in the realm of severe - it could have been a relatively big time severe day.

I'm in it for fascinating/interesting weather. Ideal year for me would be a ton of tracking of interesting weather with spurts of nice weather for a breather in between (but not too long). Give me a few minor to moderate snow events to track, one or two larger one (or a HECS) in the winter. Then in the spring, give me an active severe season when we still have good shear to combine with instability (low shear/high CAPE days are pulsey and generally very localized). Keep summer from getting too hot and humid (unless we'll fuel big storm complexes) with some tropical downpour days to track and perhaps some pulsey severe events during our lower shear portions of the year. Throw in some tracking of tropical trouble in the late summer and fall and start the cycle over. Wouldn't hurt to toss in a really dynamic March 93 style storm even if it mixed or changed over in the metro areas - would just be insane to watch that unfold on the latest iteration of GOES and with the development of the internet.

Something zoomable could be really nice, I agree! If people were relatively accurate (even if not precise locations) - you could see who your #wxnerd neighbors are!

It'll be interesting tracking soil temps. Apparently mid 60s soil temps are when we should start seeing the invasion. Assuming a really warm stretch could move the timeframe up a bit. Get your screens patched up!

I remember thinking it was sort of cool in 2004 when I was a kid. Assuming I'll be amused by it for an hour or two and then want to be rid of the huge bugs. Not looking forward to them showing up in my house or the dogs trying to eat them and getting stomachaches. A few are fine - but gorging on them won't be good. Everyone get your Rain-X washer fluid ready to get all those bug guts off your windshields!

OT but that will forever be one of my most vivid weather memories. My mom had just had a hip replacement and was at home recovering, my aunt was staying with us to help take care of her and my dad had just had a standby generator put in (finally...after losing power so much in the years before that). I remember seeing the huge swaths of warnings but the diminishing radar appearance and thinking it might be a dud once it got to us. But once it became clear it was intense, I told some friends of mine who were in a little boat on the bay to get back to shore. They laughed me off like I was over exaggerating - but I finally convinced them it was the right call. The next day they told me that they honestly think that night might have been a very different story for them had I not been on the phone with them pleading with them to get to shore. And seeing Ian's story of being down in DC trying to shelter from the storm was one to remember too. It easily topped June 4, 2008 for me. The only reason June 4, 2008 REALLY stands out for me is that I was still in HS and had to sprint home after school to make it home before things got really nasty. I'm actually not sure I even lost power in 2008. 2012 I was without it for days.

I don't think it's ever been pinned in years past. Everyone hates severe

FWIW - Accuweather seems to think we are at increased severe risk this spring. https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/accuweathers-2021-us-spring-severe-weather-tornado-forecast/901242

Something exciting in March - regardless of precip-type would be cool to track as weather people.

Colesville Area (Parent's place): 39.063320 -77.011150 Arundel Mills Area (My place): 39.148980 -76.726880 Can be a 50/50 split between the two locations so a bit hard to pick one as true home.

Glad I didn't invest too much time tracking this - this is a treat!

Latest (01z) HRRR is much less aggressive than prior runs with getting meaningful precip into the DC metro. Nonetheless, I'd expect the freezing drizzle stuff to continue.

Definitely has been a discussion for a long time. LWX is definitely seemingly overwarned with severe weather season. It probably has a lot to do with the type of population center that LWX has in their CWA. Very urban corridor, with a lot of people who may not be from a background of being familiar with "red meat" severe weather like tornado alley etc. Whether it is right or wrong is a discussion for another day...but warning fatigue is a real thing - question is whether it's a factor locally. Personally...I've seen DC area people do some dumb s*** - so I'm relatively okay with them warning 45-50mph wind gust storms. No criteria for lightning and I've seen rec teams keep baseball players out on the fields when lightning is clearly visible just to "get one more inning in" - dumb af.

FWIW (perhaps not much) the 21z RAP kept precip in the I-95 corridor until like 16z tomorrow lol.

Areas where I shoveled but didn't lay down some sand are REALLY icy. Almost took a spill while testing out a few spots. Elevated surfaces like fencing and plants definitely have a glaze. Still freezing drizzle - radar supports this as well. Looks to continue for a prolonged period as well.

Non-weather enthusiasts better stay inside. I fear that people may look out, see what looks like their clear wakways and take a spill. Radar still showing plenty of light returns over the metro area.

It is definitely freezing drizzle and it's getting bad. Area that I had shoveled and was fine an hour or two ago I almost just wiped out on just now. Stay safe folks...going to be lots of falls tonight.

Any bickering is usually in jest and much more light-hearted. I'd strongly suggest (if you haven't already) getting familiar with reading soundings and do some reading up on EMLs. Can't hurt to dive into the SPC severe event archives either - they are a cool walk down memory lane. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/ https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/554/#:~:text=The diagram below gives the,a developing low pressure system. EMLs are usually to blame for our higher end events. And of course...assume that most of our severe days will fail in 90% of the area Most of us have anecdotally decided that there are far fewer "solid" squall line days around the Mid-Atlantic than in the 90s and earlier 2000s. Severe seems to be far more splotchy here in the 2010s and 2020s so far. Except for derechos and such... Happy hunting! We'll look forward to seeing you here in the warm months! Sure beats tracking triple-digit days.

Nothing super significant, but the radar does seem to have a lot of very light returns locally. Guessing it's all freezing mist/drizzle. Does seem to be a tiny bit of enhancement the past few frames. I'm using a sensitive color table in GR, though.

Careful...you're going to get pooped on by weenies now. "LET US BE MISERABLE." "HOW DARE YOU NOT BE UPSET"

Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now

The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen.

The folks who have answered already are correct. It took me a long time to get in the habit of knowing how to do the conversion in my head. And then of course you need to re-adjust for DST when it starts back up.

I wanted to get a snow blower to use at my parent's - but I'm terrified that I will doom the area to 3 snowless winters. Besides...the shoveling makes me feel like I'm actually exercising for a change.