Kmlwx

All the long timers know I don't tend to be the type to have outbursts...but good lord...the forum is not out to get you. Randy can ban me after my little rant above or 5-post me. The amount of drama in here just feels 10x worse than it has in years past. And no...it's not all new posters, it's A LOT of people. New and old. I have ZERO people on my mute list here - and normally I just scroll past little outbursts of drama. But this is just not a hard concept for me - can't we all just be at least courteous? It cannot be this hard.

Some of ya'll just become downright NASTY people in the winter. It's not a good look. I'm not going to single anyone out - but there's definitely a good number of people that maybe need to do some soul searching. It's weather. Get a grip. It's not even politics in here. There's a mute function - use it. And I *KNOW* some of the offenders are totally rationale, normal people in here other times of year. Grow the F up and realize that there are winner and losers in every weather event. Stop getting all butthurt over a weather forum. If you feel like you're getting bullied - privately message a mod or something - stop duking it out in public. I don't speak for everyone - but I'm pretty sure the vast majority of us weather enthusiasts don't want to see you have little petulant outbursts in the public forum. There's a DM feature, report feature, and mute feature. Use them.

Seems to match the ground truth here pretty well. Definitely tougher to clear off the driveway than powder. Weird storm.

Agreed - the time spent on winter storms is definitely way more than severe. The amount of times we fail on winter though would tend to argue we should always just assume we'll find a way to fail

The HRRR and RAP are both showing a little area of enhanced precip again (probably a mix) later on tonight. We'll see. Perhaps a glaze of ice if it's not snow?

It truly becomes just a friendlier, less "misery loves company" group for severe. That thread will probably be dormant for a month or more...For now I've just been occasionally peeking at monthly modeling to see what H5 pattern we might see for the warm months.

He definitely was right. I wasn't even arguing that he was going to be wrong the entire time - my argument was that if we were going to truly get a slug of sleet/freezing rain that it wouldn't be a "no big deal" and "wet roads" for DC. The storm itself just kind of busted as a whole.

Clearly this is just one of those years that could have been. We still have some winter left - and lately March has been a true winter month. So we'll see if we can squeeze some more heartbreak for those of you who haven't been reaped yet

It's honestly the reason I've taken to following @Bob Chill. High school/early college me would legit get like a depression after failed winter storms. Life has just sort of developed in a way for me that I still love snow, but I look at the fact that I still got some shovel time in (call me crazy but I enjoy doing it) and then the silver lining is that I didn't get trapped from seeing friends/family for an extended period. Not to say I wouldn't give a kidney for a Jan 2016 again - I might consider it...just that I've changed since the Eastern days. It can be refreshing - I still get bummed - but I try to let it only be for a day or so and just sort of let it roll off my back. At a certain point I just decided enjoying weather and tracking sure beats going on a downer for days after a winter storm that could have been.

Perhaps not a few changing years - but the overall gaps between "good years" - Maybe you're right and this year was just bad luck and bad timing - but @psuhoffman is right...some of these events with like tiny tweaks would have been MUCH better regionwide. Will be interesting to see what the rest of the 2020s hold.

Also...and this is not targeted at you - but as I've said before recently...the nice thing about severe season too is the mood in here is way lighter. We miss a severe event and we all kind of shrug it off and talk about EMLs and joke around with each other. Winter weenies tend to bring out the low blows, insults and cranky behavior. I can pick out more than a few members of this forum that seem to have completely different personalities in summer versus winter.

For sure. I think the issue with severe is that it's way easier to miss out on a major storm cell that is 10 miles wide at best versus a big coastal. But that's just severe - and honestly with severe at least in the summer you're usually only a day or two away from the next isolated storm chance (or more). You generally get more opportunities in severe season vs winter (perhaps not for a region wide outbreak - but just for strong-severe storms in general).

I had sent out a forecast to my friends and coworkers of 2-4 inches and then sleet and ice. Definitely another bust - and I thought I might be on the low end of forecasts - I'm not going to put down anyone who is bummed out by the storm - it's definitely yet another potential example of DC area climo shifting away from snow even more. Perhaps we only get a HUGE one every bunch of years and everything else will start being like this. Nonetheless - this hobby has always worked this way - must have been semi more interesting before we had NWP to look at.

The the painful gap between winter and severe season begins. Maybe we can score on some sort of squally type sub-severe line at some point early season. March and April can be really slow if nothing happens. Nice weather at least!

Valid point - though even then - I wouldn't say I even ripped sleet for hours. I was in the crab claw for hours this morning. The sleet has really just been absolutely bursting for the last 20-30 minutes or so (if that). Mostly it's just been light sleet with spikes into the moderate territory. I think I've seen 7 flakes total. ETA: I don't even think I've hit 1 inch of sleet. Looking out the window it's pretty unimpressive if I'm going by scenery and amounts. It's already slowing down here.

The amount of sleet is pretty amazing. It's not very typical to get buckets of sleet like this at once. Not sure about you - but I'm into meteorology for interesting weather. It's why I'm here in severe season and winter a like. I love snow - but I love interesting weather - a massive sleet bomb is meteorologically interesting. But I understand your POV if you were hoping for snow and don't give a s*** about any other type of weather.

There does seem to be substantial drying out of the radar returns south and west of the Potomac River (compared to the huge blob of death over Maryland)

The amount of sleet falling here is insane.

Hefty sleet with maybe a flake or two mixing in.

I don't see any trace of rain anymore at least - seems like a straight sleet fest here now.

I figured - but wanted to get the true answer! Thanks! The red taggers on here never disappoint. So in "theory" that warm nose being sampled on the LWX/IAD sonde could have actually been sampled a bit away from the launch site? I assume for the purposes of a day like today, it wouldn't have drifted TOO far - and would probably still be representative of the atmosphere above the site?

The heavier band that is moving through the "lull" area right now is sleet in Colesville again. Can hear it sandblasting the windows.

Question for the red taggers - I'll tag a few in hopes that I can get an answer. @high risk @WxUSAF @MN Transplant - How does NWS account for the balloon launches drifting in the wind? In other words, say that in a very strong wind the balloon has drifted tens of miles by the time it samples a warm nose in today's case. Not sure if that's even realistic - but when that data is ingested into the models - does it treat the entire sounding as if it was directly above IAD/LWX - or does it account for the data at different levels being taken at potentially different geographic locations?

Getting a sleet base IMO makes the snow (if any comes) easier to accumulate - and if it comes AFTER snow it tends to make it harder to melt. Sleet sticks around longer!

Getting raked with sleet right now with perhaps some ZR mixed in.