Kmlwx

Areas where I shoveled but didn't lay down some sand are REALLY icy. Almost took a spill while testing out a few spots. Elevated surfaces like fencing and plants definitely have a glaze. Still freezing drizzle - radar supports this as well. Looks to continue for a prolonged period as well.

Non-weather enthusiasts better stay inside. I fear that people may look out, see what looks like their clear wakways and take a spill. Radar still showing plenty of light returns over the metro area.

It is definitely freezing drizzle and it's getting bad. Area that I had shoveled and was fine an hour or two ago I almost just wiped out on just now. Stay safe folks...going to be lots of falls tonight.

Any bickering is usually in jest and much more light-hearted. I'd strongly suggest (if you haven't already) getting familiar with reading soundings and do some reading up on EMLs. Can't hurt to dive into the SPC severe event archives either - they are a cool walk down memory lane. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/ https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/554/#:~:text=The diagram below gives the,a developing low pressure system. EMLs are usually to blame for our higher end events. And of course...assume that most of our severe days will fail in 90% of the area Most of us have anecdotally decided that there are far fewer "solid" squall line days around the Mid-Atlantic than in the 90s and earlier 2000s. Severe seems to be far more splotchy here in the 2010s and 2020s so far. Except for derechos and such... Happy hunting! We'll look forward to seeing you here in the warm months! Sure beats tracking triple-digit days.

Nothing super significant, but the radar does seem to have a lot of very light returns locally. Guessing it's all freezing mist/drizzle. Does seem to be a tiny bit of enhancement the past few frames. I'm using a sensitive color table in GR, though.

Careful...you're going to get pooped on by weenies now. "LET US BE MISERABLE." "HOW DARE YOU NOT BE UPSET"

Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now

The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen.

The folks who have answered already are correct. It took me a long time to get in the habit of knowing how to do the conversion in my head. And then of course you need to re-adjust for DST when it starts back up.

I wanted to get a snow blower to use at my parent's - but I'm terrified that I will doom the area to 3 snowless winters. Besides...the shoveling makes me feel like I'm actually exercising for a change.

HRRR shows ZR and snow blossoming over the area by like 5 or 6z tonight.

Shoveled two driveways today (parent's and neighbors). It's not terrible if you can get the edge of the shovel underneath everything and it all just lifts up. Heavy though...great exercise. Will be interesting to see what transpires tonight. Assuming it'll be light ZR - but HRRR and RAP aren't a guarantee in that regard. They have sleet/snow it looks like - from the crude precip maps at least. Granted...I didn't look at soundings.

To be honest - seeing the ice up in the trees is always a cool sight. I know nobody wants the power outages and such and accidents...but that would be a cool "end" to the storm.

Maybe once winter is over and COVID is in the past we need a forum screening of The Day After Tomorrow or some other terrible weather movie. Booze and delicious food?

Bring it! Thundersleet for hours on end. I'll sit outside in it and giggle like a maniac in front of Bob Chill's place.

All the long timers know I don't tend to be the type to have outbursts...but good lord...the forum is not out to get you. Randy can ban me after my little rant above or 5-post me. The amount of drama in here just feels 10x worse than it has in years past. And no...it's not all new posters, it's A LOT of people. New and old. I have ZERO people on my mute list here - and normally I just scroll past little outbursts of drama. But this is just not a hard concept for me - can't we all just be at least courteous? It cannot be this hard.

Some of ya'll just become downright NASTY people in the winter. It's not a good look. I'm not going to single anyone out - but there's definitely a good number of people that maybe need to do some soul searching. It's weather. Get a grip. It's not even politics in here. There's a mute function - use it. And I *KNOW* some of the offenders are totally rationale, normal people in here other times of year. Grow the F up and realize that there are winner and losers in every weather event. Stop getting all butthurt over a weather forum. If you feel like you're getting bullied - privately message a mod or something - stop duking it out in public. I don't speak for everyone - but I'm pretty sure the vast majority of us weather enthusiasts don't want to see you have little petulant outbursts in the public forum. There's a DM feature, report feature, and mute feature. Use them.

Seems to match the ground truth here pretty well. Definitely tougher to clear off the driveway than powder. Weird storm.

Agreed - the time spent on winter storms is definitely way more than severe. The amount of times we fail on winter though would tend to argue we should always just assume we'll find a way to fail

The HRRR and RAP are both showing a little area of enhanced precip again (probably a mix) later on tonight. We'll see. Perhaps a glaze of ice if it's not snow?

It truly becomes just a friendlier, less "misery loves company" group for severe. That thread will probably be dormant for a month or more...For now I've just been occasionally peeking at monthly modeling to see what H5 pattern we might see for the warm months.

He definitely was right. I wasn't even arguing that he was going to be wrong the entire time - my argument was that if we were going to truly get a slug of sleet/freezing rain that it wouldn't be a "no big deal" and "wet roads" for DC. The storm itself just kind of busted as a whole.

Clearly this is just one of those years that could have been. We still have some winter left - and lately March has been a true winter month. So we'll see if we can squeeze some more heartbreak for those of you who haven't been reaped yet

It's honestly the reason I've taken to following @Bob Chill. High school/early college me would legit get like a depression after failed winter storms. Life has just sort of developed in a way for me that I still love snow, but I look at the fact that I still got some shovel time in (call me crazy but I enjoy doing it) and then the silver lining is that I didn't get trapped from seeing friends/family for an extended period. Not to say I wouldn't give a kidney for a Jan 2016 again - I might consider it...just that I've changed since the Eastern days. It can be refreshing - I still get bummed - but I try to let it only be for a day or so and just sort of let it roll off my back. At a certain point I just decided enjoying weather and tracking sure beats going on a downer for days after a winter storm that could have been.

Perhaps not a few changing years - but the overall gaps between "good years" - Maybe you're right and this year was just bad luck and bad timing - but @psuhoffman is right...some of these events with like tiny tweaks would have been MUCH better regionwide. Will be interesting to see what the rest of the 2020s hold.