Kmlwx

"we just can't know"

Bob Chill suggested a distillery to me years ago. Have been storing some bottles I picked up there since then. If we are ripping fatties at some point during this storm I might have to pop a bottle open.

Exactly. I'm guilty of spending way too much time on here before and during weather events. Have to say...the times in the past when the forum went down and I was forced to go do other things ended up doing me some good. Post count over 10K (and I'm even lower than a lot of people) always is a sobering wake up call to me that I'm a total weather nerd...

I'm not giving @stormtracker any money - but I'll buy him his drink of choice if we ever have a non-socially distanced get together again.

Mods should just lock the forum for a few hours to let everyone cool down Some time away from the screens might do us all some good.

We aren't going to change Ji - so we might as well just accept that Ji will be Ji. I'm not in the business of laying down absolute hate on any posters here. Sure some are more annoying than others. But ultimately most of us are after the same goal...snow and exciting weather.

Totally understand. At the heart of it we are all weather weenies on here. Trust me, I get it. 6-10 is still a really high bar to have set too far out ahead of the storm. I loved seeing those 15+ maps a few days ago, but we all know how that goes. I have even been refusing to give my friends snow maps - DC area experience has taught me over the years to play it down until absolutely necessary. 3+ was my bar even when I was seeing those golden runs.

@osfan24 - You doing okay this year? I might be wrong but I had memories of you being a really balanced poster in the past. We're all itching for a big storm. I think you and I will do okay in this one for a grass covering, shovelable snow.

I don't think anyone is arguing that it isn't disappointing. But there's a big difference in being all bummed about it and enjoying a nice snowfall. Not everything can be a MECS.

The red taggers made a valid, and well backed up point. But they aren't saying it's a "next" storm. 3-6 would be my largest storm in several years. The amount of folks acting like they will not be at all satisfied with a 3-6er and signs of a decent long term pattern into February is kind of comical. I get it - we all want to be in the lake effect areas. We aren't.

I think the comparisons to the earlier depictions at H5 and such are valid. But the people "requiring" 2ft to be happy are treading very close to become Ji clones. We only need one Ji. He has his schtick and it's his. We don't need 30 other Ji's. It's gonna snow - you might not have 40ft drifts, but your grass will likely be fully covered, and if you enjoy shoveling, sledding, walking in the snow you will be very happy. Will be biggest snowfall in several years for many people. If that depresses you, might be time to take a step back from the computer and go spend some time painting or something.

I was pretty shocked that somebody commented "next" in the main thread. Some of the reactions of non-mets are downright absurd. You're not going to be happy with our first WSW criteria snow in a longgg time? I'm elated that I'll actually have the grass fully covered. Signs pointing to us not having a shut the blinds pattern into February too. Sometimes in here it feels like when you offer a homeless person some fruit and they turn it down. Good lord.

Remember how much you hated me in 2006 My awkward over-dramatic high school weather phase. Glad that's over.

To me - what this storm is looking like is a general very nice storm. I don't think we are going to have any areas getting widespread 2+ feet. So if you're looking for a Jan 2016 redux you're of course going to walk away with your tail between your legs. This looks like a good shot to be a "significant" snow event for a huge swath of the area. That alone is a big time win considering how long we've gone without something that actually looks like piled up snow instead of a sloppy event where you still see the blades of grass. If we are realistic about what we expect and end up getting - we'll enjoy the storm. If you want 3ft...I don't know what to tell you other than this is not your storm.

Not even worth trying with some of the weenies. I'm first to admit I was sooo bad when I joined the forums back in 2006 - and I was probably bad all the way through the early 2010s. At some point I guess life just shows you that while snow is awesome (and other exciting weather) - we ultimately just keep moving along. I equate it to your favorite sports team losing - it stings, but ultimately you just keep rolling. We're getting some amount of snow. And after the recent snow drought, it'll look great!

Everyone likes to hate on Ji...but a lot of you are just like him just with varying amounts. @psuhoffman - has his south trend meltdowns sometimes but at least they still have scientific backing and he backs up his reasoning. @yoda and I don't freak out when we miss a spring/summer severe day. We just have to try to get back on the horse and keep it going. It's not like we have "lost" this storm.

Weather weenies are a weird bunch to observe. I can understand saying a negative model shift is "concerning" or a "bummer" - but the kind of terms we all sometimes throw around are funny to see. "Disturbing" was one in the main thread. We love snow - but come on guys after the last year or two of missing out on snow I will take something I can shovel and run with it. I would love to have 12+ but if I get 6" so be it - it will look pretty and will be worlds better than any snow I've gotten the past two winters. Some of us folk on here have such wild mood swings based on computers crunching numbers. Trust me - back in 2006 I was as weenie as they come.

H5 closed low over western half of Ohio versus it being ESE of there on the prior run.

GFS to 51hrs looks fairly similar at H5.

The precursor to the NAM models was the ETA. Euro/ETA I believe

That low position on the NAM vs the Euro is strikingly close. EE rule coming back into form?

We can pick and over analyze all we want but overall through 78 it seems pretty similar to 0z. The normal noise adjustments of course.

H5 seems closer to being closed off at 72 than the 0z run. By a bit - nothing huge again.

I'm out to 60 on Pivotal right now. I don't see any massive changes. Just the usual noise it seems. But I only glanced.

Really a battle of the models. Getting close to being under that 100hr mark too. We'll see if the Americans or the Euro people win.