Kmlwx

Yeah I follow him over there. Still posts good stuff. Didn't want to add his handle without him giving the go ahead.

That junk near Front Royal has some spin on it on Radarscope lol. Also that stuff could stabilize some areas early.

Problem is @Ian, isn't here as much and I haven't seen @Ellinwoodin ages.

Mesoanalysis is starting to bulk up on parameters. Predictably, mostly in areas with more sun. The RAP forecast that is integrated in mesoanalysis looks good too.

I know the HRDPS is a JV model but it definitely would imply a tor threat for Carroll for you. Even the rest of Central MD and then a linear wind threat from there to the bay and then east and south.

HRDPS is discrete until the 95 corridor and then linear. Looks great. HRRR still is eh until you get east of the metro

Visible satellite looks decent once you're south and east of Frederick County it seems

Are you bullish?

Not enough info to change the outlook I suppose. Steady we go.

Watch SPC go moderate hatching just to F with us.

Maybe drop the 10 percent and keep everything else.

14z HRRR is truly awful for DC NE MD and Eastern Shore pummeled

When in doubt... Always go with the QLCS mode in this area. More often than not you will win. Doesn't mean a rogue cell can't get it done, and also doesn't rule out QLCS tornadoes, gustnadoes or bookend circulation type things.

Saw some sun on my drive into the office in the Rockville area

Reflectivity looked great in that bow shape - but velocity scans were consistently underwhelming. I was struggling to find anything of severe magnitude even on the TDWRs.

18z HRDRPS remains outstanding for the area tomorrow.

Signs of outflow boundary on the part of the line heading into MoCo.

Tree down on I-70 WB at mile marker 36

Those are some low probs for that watch lol.

Nice little bowing line segment about to go through the Thurmont area.

Squally type line going through the Hagerstown area now. We'll probably get rained on today. Let's do it for tomorrow woo storms.

There's probably enough moisture to support a threat for storms (some strong maybe) past sunset. For the superstitious/non-scientific side of us - this could bode well for our odds to see stronger storms tomorrow. We just can't seem to string multiple days together - the area of focus always shifts a little bit day to day - even when it seems like we'll be bullseyed for days on days. I personally thought that earlier mesoscale discussion was VERY high probs for something that had not even developed yet - and didn't look insanely good on modeling.

Today is looking super lame at least at the current moment. More eggs into the tomorrow basket perhaps.

Don't your dare

NAM nest parameter space for tomorrow looks great - reflectivity not so much.