Kmlwx

The precursor to the NAM models was the ETA. Euro/ETA I believe

That low position on the NAM vs the Euro is strikingly close. EE rule coming back into form?

We can pick and over analyze all we want but overall through 78 it seems pretty similar to 0z. The normal noise adjustments of course.

H5 seems closer to being closed off at 72 than the 0z run. By a bit - nothing huge again.

I'm out to 60 on Pivotal right now. I don't see any massive changes. Just the usual noise it seems. But I only glanced.

Really a battle of the models. Getting close to being under that 100hr mark too. We'll see if the Americans or the Euro people win.

You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year.

Yep - initial slug looks great and then it dryslots.

Also low key kind of impressed that that signature is shown in an ensemble mean from this far out. Makes it a bit more believable.

The blocking is easing/breaking down. It seems as though it will probably recycle and give us another round of blocking in February. But that is not the same as this last round of blocking.

It'll wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to rug pull.

The high resolution/short term models have a tapering off and then some sleet/freezing rain with the subsequent slug.

Don't lie to us - it's definitely locked in, right?

Radar looks JUICY down in VA.

If only we could lock that in now. At least it's under 200 hours away....

Sounds like less pingers now - but I can see some flakes. Perhaps a touch of sleet and then rain/snow mix.

Getting rain and sleet in Colesville, MD right now. Remember to submit your reports using mPING!

@dtk would be a good one to ask too, I think. To be honest I'm calling BS preliminarily as well. 30 hours to adjust? Why wouldn't it be 24? Or 12?

It's run at the ensemble resolution not the op resolution.

@psuhoffman - There are young people in here! Good lord. That is a beautiful map.

This far out - thermals are the least concern. I think we should all be looking at the H5 pattern and how it matches or doesn't match with the surface result. Inside of 120 we can start sweating thermals. Not saying we won't have temp issues - but remember - the best storms usually do have their share of mixing and thermal problems. We'll see. Too early for now.

I know this is OT - but I'll quickly add that they have a mobile app that even has a "augmented reality" feature where you can point your phone camera around and it'll show you the flights on your screen that are visible in your line-of-sight. You won't see military flights on there for the most part, but commercial, Project Loon balloons, and recreational aircraft all show up. It's been helpful when I hear a helicopter fly low over and I'm trying to figure out who it is. If nothing else, goes to show you that even when air travel is "slow" there's still a crap ton of planes flying around up there.

@Ralph Wiggum - I think your comment also applies to the people who refer to 6z and 18z as "off runs" and then use that basis to throw them out if they don't show what the weenies like. Plenty of new data is assimilated into the models on off hours. Sure - not the 12z and 00z balloons....but it's not like it's "stale" data. But...weenies gonna weenie.

Plenty. https://www.flightradar24.com/42.95,-108.11/4 We are way up from the lows during the period earlier in 2020 when flights grinded to a halt. Even with less traveling, the airlines are required to maintain minimum levels of service in many cases. Sure, there's probably cancelations and such - but airplanes are still flying every day.

The improvement of satellite derived data has helped a lot. Of course, having a balloon or other sounding is the gold standard - but modern weather satellites can sample those "data sparse" regions pretty well at this point. I would agree that the days of using that as an explanation are mostly behind us. Add in aircraft data and you've got a nice data suite available for the models even without having balloon launches everywhere.