Kmlwx

Best chances for the Wakefield WFO area. Maybe Southern Maryland and PG/AACo sneak in. Wonder if LWX will do the huge polygons

The 18z NAM at range (FWIW) has some crazy 925mb and 850mb winds depicted for the Christmas Eve system. Has 925mb winds over the Bay of like 75kts around 0z that night. Big swath of near 100kt winds at the 850mb level at 3z that night as well (over the Bay again). But the entire area at one point or another gets very strong winds not very far off the surface (few thousand feet). That same NAM run has a really well defined line with the front...would think that with the strong storm system, at least some of those winds could be brought down to the surface.

This was a good warmup for an upcoming (date TBD) 50" BECS.

Not trying to be a grammar nazi. Merely trying to show how things can spiral. How was mappy supposed to know that you were in a drive thru line? Apparently I'm on your bad side now too, though. Sorry man. I really do value your input on the board and that statement has applied since whenever you started posting. Seems a shame to all of a sudden have all this drama. I am friendly with everyone here for the most part. Sucks to see so much tension here. I'll be quiet now and just wait until things blow over. Hope you and I can be okay by the time severe season rolls around...

Mhm

I think what we all really need is to witness @weatherwiz dressed as Hannah Montana again. Then all will be well.

Do you want a burger? "Sure!" Do you want to go to the mall tomorrow? "Sure!" Did you get an A on your paper for history? "Sure!" You can see how that kind of reply could be easily taken the wrong way. Even if you didn't mean it. Just trying to illustrate a point there.

This. Especially if there are still high tensions lingering around. Hopefully the board can get back to being a friendly place again - where Ji complains and everything is well.

Can we just agree that "Correct" or "Yes" would have come across as more of an answer than "Sure" Regardless of how this all started - I can tell you that in my family "Sure" in that kind of a context is easily interpreted in a snarky or stand-offish manner. Regardless of whether you meant it. I say "sure" if somebody asks me if I want a burger. Not sure it fit well as a response to a question about temps. Clearly things are messy in here. Hate to see conflict like this erupting for a weather event. Hopefully everyone involved can just cool down and be friends again. And no - I'm not picking a fight with you.

Good lord - what the heck is going on here... It's weather.

We just have to hope that it's not a year when we get good blocking but zero good luck. It's early - let's see what we can do as we approach January. Besides, the later winter months are our wheelhouse. This is a bummer but very on-brand for us.

And add into the equation that it could even be pretty steady rain as well...always was told that if you want heavy freezing rain accumulation you're looking for lighter rain.

With a relatively marginal airmass - any models suggesting widespread or heavy accumulations of freezing rain are probably wrong. Sleet - yes, freezing rain I wouldn't be too worried about.

Can you imagine how bad model threads will be when there are models with resolution down to like 100m. "I'm 100 yards from the changeover ugh" "This storm is a bust, I'm getting 0.2 inches less than my neighbor"

I agree. Usually I use the orange Rain-X stuff and it's great. This is stuff the dealer put in. It's crap.

Well...when I walked out to my car a little while ago (Arundel Mills area). All my windows were frozen over, a bottle of water inside had frozen and the washer fluid froze on contact. I'm just going to take the weenie approach and assume that I have a local cold dome that will make me invincible to the changeover. Might head back to my parent's place in Colesville to watch this one. Probably similar totals overall...

No. It was the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. It was awful.

Silly @mappy - You really think people here can be rational? Big reason I just stay quiet during most model run style threads - I know I'll read something wrong...I'll stick to spamming the forum during severe season.

Remember though - surface temps are not the sole determining factor for ratios. You can have temps in the teens and be getting poor ratios if other factors like the snow growth zones are not lined up.

It's 5 days away and you are in a climo less favored part of the area.

I've stayed at one hotel during COVID and the precautions they were taking were pretty good. Sealing the room after cleaning with a seal, glass barriers in front of the counter, keycard returns in a slot instead of to an actual person, distancing enforced. I felt safer at the hotel than I do when I go into the office one day a week. The hotel appeared to be occupied less than 20% from what I could tell.

If only that was inches.

I actually heard thunder as that stuff passed by. I'll consider that a win on November 30.

Little notch maybe near ADW

There's a few areas on radar I'm watching. I think I'll be just a smidge too far north and west here in the Hanover/Severn area. But Charles County, MD looks interesting right now. ETA: Velocity scans have that typical "spin up" kind of look.