Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Wow, that’s a pretty good look. Hope it gets close to verifying.
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Some Thoughts On The Next Couple Months
Terpeast replied to OHweather's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Excellent write up, thanks for sharing! These posts are what makes this forum great. -
Am doing the same
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Sustained 20-30 mph winds, reduced visibility to your own picket fence, with blowing and drifting.
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Warm and breezy at 75. Beautiful day out at a pumpkin patch with the little ones. Enjoy it while it lasts
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So would I, but didn’t want to raise my own expectations
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These two analogs have a snowier Feb. I had eyes on the 1985-86 analog in my winter forecast. That I would take in a heartbeat.
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Reasonable, same basic idea as my outlook. Maybe a little too optimistic about the nina decaying as fast as they said it will.
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Yeah, the first 2 weeks is already sealed, imo. And imagine how cold the second half of novie has to get just to get us to average.
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I expected a mild november, but not a torcher like this. But that’s ok. It’s all about timing here.
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Yeah, the problem with an early flip to cold is that when it flips back warm, it usually means an early end to the winter in this “new” climo
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0.3” here. Radar looks like we’re done
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Yep, a flip late nov would be too soon east of the blue ridge. Delay that a couple/few weeks, we’re golden
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Low 32. Bit surprised to see frost everywhere, but this is probably the last time in a few weeks.
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The reds are really popping in Ashburn lately.
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If this pans out and stretches to late Nov, my +2 forecast for mid atlantic might get close to verifying. Then I go cold for Dec-Jan…
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Only when it’s 384 hrs out, can we take it seriously
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I predicted 11/4-5 for the rest, while I was off for IAD by 5 days.
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Yeah I know. I was being facetious
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How ironic would it be if I flew to TX on the 20th and missed this one
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Maybe I woke up too late, but lighter and patchier frost this morning than yesterday. Don’t think I actually got down to freezing.
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Yup
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Think 33 is the lowest I got. There was frost this time. Everywhere.
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Looking more and more positive. When was the last 3rd year nina with a +pdo?
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Skyline drive on Monday morning between 211 and Stony Man. IMG_4311.MOV
