Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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The reds are really popping in Ashburn lately.
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If this pans out and stretches to late Nov, my +2 forecast for mid atlantic might get close to verifying. Then I go cold for Dec-Jan…
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Only when it’s 384 hrs out, can we take it seriously
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I predicted 11/4-5 for the rest, while I was off for IAD by 5 days.
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Yeah I know. I was being facetious
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How ironic would it be if I flew to TX on the 20th and missed this one
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Maybe I woke up too late, but lighter and patchier frost this morning than yesterday. Don’t think I actually got down to freezing.
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Yup
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Think 33 is the lowest I got. There was frost this time. Everywhere.
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Looking more and more positive. When was the last 3rd year nina with a +pdo?
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Skyline drive on Monday morning between 211 and Stony Man. IMG_4311.MOV
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34 low, no frost.
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Even if they were smart enough to leave after a busted winter forecast, he can still use the “churn n’ burn” strategy and still keep the lights on.
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Real question is do subscribers stay when it turns out he was wrong… and if they do, why?
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Low of 35
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My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
What’s interesting about that winter is that it was backloaded. Most of its snow came in Feb. Overall it was on the cold side though. -
Perhaps, but it’s fun.
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I saw that, but it’s not enough yet. I actually raised this a few weeks ago when ssts in central pac were trending cooler, but that large warm pool off the coast of japan is still keeping the PDO negative. Not as deeply negative as it has been, but still negative for now. I hope for our sub’s sake that it continues to trend toward neutral.
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My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thanks, and you’re right about the low ACE. When I wrote this, the atlantic was pretty active so I figured that it would catch up… and then it died down after Ian. So I might go down another rabbit hole revisiting low ACE years to see if there any similarities, or if it could possibly throw my outlook off. -
My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
This article points out a few examples of strong clippers with bigger than usual snowfalls in MN. worth noting most of the examples cited happened during nina years. Also that dec 28-29, 2000 was a precursor to the dec 30 blizzard that hit NYC. I see those kinds of systems happening again this winter. Doesn’t mean we (mid atlantic) will get anything out of those, so you do have a valid point. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/january-14-2022-super-clipper.html -
The PDO is still negative
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About the 44 average high being +12 over what we need it to snow, it is not much more than 42 degrees, or +10, 30-50 some years ago. Although 2 degrees can make a big difference in marginal events, let's remember that the delmarva coast had 3 or 4 bomb cyclone events that buried them in snow with blizzard conditions. Why weren't those 36 degree all-rain events, too? Although I'm less excited about this upcoming winter, it's not all doom and gloom. Our time will come eventually.
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Strong signal for aleutian high and -PNA. Maybe a little help from a -NAO
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And it makes our sub cold in the spring and fall, but not winter.
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That’s the million dollar question right there
