Terpeast

Since TT only goes out to 90h so maybe someone else can post the h5 maps beyond that. Like brooklyn said, stronger vort coming in behind and then under the main ULL… Secondary sfc low forming along the main front. I still think a run of the mill fropa is the most likely solution though.

Ok. That’s your bar. I decided that mine would be one snowfall that at minimum covers the grass. Anything on top of that would be a bonus to me.

Saw flurries on my way into Vienna. Probably that’s all we’re going to see for this “threat”

Decided to really drill down into the stats/trends of IAD snowfall. I'm sure it's nothing new, but the median really drives home the point that we no longer "average" 20 inches a season. It's more like 14-15 now, and that's with the big snow years thrown in. Take those away, we're at more like 8-12" median... and the downtrend is so striking compared to the "average" skewed by the occasional big dog. And this year we may not even get to the median! Excuse the ugly charts, but this shows the average 20" snowfall year is increasingly out of reach. And we're talking IAD numbers. I haven't even bothered to look at DCA. *Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

Yep, and they need it. Badly.

Feel free to call bullshit, but I mean it. Of course I’d love to get 20-40” but the stats and trends don’t lie. The 20” average is likely outdated, and I’ve been adjusting my expectations accordingly.

All I’m saying is if we get 0 this year, how likely is it we will get 0 again next year? Maybe there’s a first for everything. Maybe your expectations are different, but I’d be content with 3”, let alone 7”

Good to know. I haven’t been looking at models since my last year here (2010) and I don’t remember the GFS being so bad with individual storms even inside 48-72h. It’s like they gone backwards to the 1980s modeling performance. At least the LR ensemble performance is somewhat credible.

EPS shows more red. And can we really trust the GFS? To add to my last post, if we do get zero’ed out this winter, at least we then know that there’s nowhere to go but up the following winter.

Frost is back. At least I don’t have to go anywhere, so I don’t have to scrape the car.

Models showing almost no precip for tonight in my area, and no front end thump for the weekend storm. Looking like a shutout so far, and may end up that way this year. Smart thing to do is take up another hobby, at least until the next el nino, and even that isn’t a guarantee (see: 97-98)

Just when you’re ready to move on, it pulls you back in with a bit of hopium

Yeah, if it’s trending that way, it’s not even worth a chase to Deep Creek

And Montreal could be next. btw @psuhoffman I agree with you, and wrt that CFS map I posted I was speaking in general terms, not that I expect it to verify. I hope, yes. But expect? No.

I know it’s the CFS and it’s a month away. But a map like this would work so much better for us.

When I look at this temp map, I don’t know how even a good track is going to help us. EDIT: it would be one thing if it was just slightly warm, like a couple degrees C AN. But +10C across the board?

Tbh since I moved here, it seemed qpf underperforms here almost every time

Your explanation was fine. I’m tipsy too, so I can’t go into more detail than we have already.

You could look at the 250 mb map and see where the strongest jet streams are. Right now we have a screaming pac jet and the airmasses follow that. Also note the trough over the west coast, and that trough also brings warm pacific air from SW of baja and basically floods the whole conus with it

We’re getting buried. Don’t worry. Enjoy the buzz.

LWX not quite sold yet. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure ridging aloft expected Saturday night. The next low pressure system will approach Sunday into Sunday night. Most late afternoon and evening model guidance show more of a wintry mix or snow scenario across parts of our region rather than mostly rain. There will still be rain over a large portion but somewhere in the region could get a light accumulation of snow. Icing does appear most likely at or above 2kft AGL across the Blue Ridge, Allegheny, and Potomac Highlands. Still expecting rather minor icing amounts at this juncture. Will continue to monitor future models and trends. Uncertainty remains high given the thermodynamic profiles. We`ll continue to monitor this system and refine our forecast over the next few days.

Good to know. I didn’t even know that there was a potential event yesterday though.

Hah, walked right into that one. I’ll know by Tuesday.

This range is in NAM’s wheelhouse now, no?

I'm starting to like the trends out of both NAM and GFS.