Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Happy new year!
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12/31-1/1 Possible Snow Showers/Squalls to Start 2026
Terpeast replied to bncho's topic in Mid Atlantic
Happy birthday! -
Nam may have ticked south, but based on 500mb vort it took one step closer to the euro. Northern stream vort is sharper and more south. The ss vort shifted south too, but if it stays north like 18z, then there will be more interaction.
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Actually I agree with you. The NYC event trended north in the last day or so, putting the max just NE of the city instead of directly over and south of it.
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When the models were showing a great pattern over the next 10 days and beyond a few days back, it was showing this system but it was way suppressed to the south because of the cold press. Now that the block is falling apart, the cold press isn't as much, allowing this system to come up north. Hopefully we still have enough cold air to snow if the precip comes up that far.
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Seems everything has shifted 10 days later. I have a feeling models will turn colder at day 10+ by friday.
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I’ve experienced one just SE of dunkirk where we got 3 ft, it was great. But that was a long time ago and memories are fading. I want more haha
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I am envious. When the kids are older, we’ll chase Blackwater, wisp, and tug hill are good go-tos.
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You moving there?
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After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12.
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21 in Ashburn
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Yeah that’s a big jump
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Yes thats right, but it doesn’t mean phase 6 automatically means warm in the east. Usually when amplitude is strong, which isn’t the case now. Weak/cod 6 during -enso/-aam usually means cold in the east, but not always.
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It’s a statistics term that doesn’t mean what the layperson thinks it does. In statistics, significance on a correlation plot doesn’t necessarily mean the relationship between two variables is strong or important. A significance of <5% means a p-value of <0.05 (>95% confidence level), not that the correlation is strong. Two different things.
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CMC also goes into 6, while Euro stays in weak 7 (let's see what 12z says).
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When I saw the weeklies this morning, it looked like we're losing the Jan 5-12 window, but Jan 12-19 (and later weeks) stayed cold. I was going to wait until 12z to say anything though.
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He’ll stay up for 0z that’ll give us only 10” and call it a disaster
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That’s a folks worthy beat down!
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Very, very encouraging 12z suite. They are all taking shots at us in the second week of Jan. All it takes is one to hit.
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Yeah. I get it. Really do. But this is a la nina. Adjust expectations accordingly.
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I feel like many are chasing a 20”+ big dog and anything less is a rug (even something close to a 4-8er)
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I’m thinking the same. But i’ll take anything before the 10th!
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Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.
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Yep, that’s all we can take away at this moment. Jan 5-12 is still what I’m cautiously optimistic about, and the pattern still looks good after. There may be a couple/few days where we relax or warm up, but we have not lost this yet.
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Gefs 18z a bit better than 12z, more like 06z
