Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12.
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21 in Ashburn
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Yeah that’s a big jump
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Yes thats right, but it doesn’t mean phase 6 automatically means warm in the east. Usually when amplitude is strong, which isn’t the case now. Weak/cod 6 during -enso/-aam usually means cold in the east, but not always.
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It’s a statistics term that doesn’t mean what the layperson thinks it does. In statistics, significance on a correlation plot doesn’t necessarily mean the relationship between two variables is strong or important. A significance of <5% means a p-value of <0.05 (>95% confidence level), not that the correlation is strong. Two different things.
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CMC also goes into 6, while Euro stays in weak 7 (let's see what 12z says).
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When I saw the weeklies this morning, it looked like we're losing the Jan 5-12 window, but Jan 12-19 (and later weeks) stayed cold. I was going to wait until 12z to say anything though.
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He’ll stay up for 0z that’ll give us only 10” and call it a disaster
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That’s a folks worthy beat down!
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Very, very encouraging 12z suite. They are all taking shots at us in the second week of Jan. All it takes is one to hit.
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Yeah. I get it. Really do. But this is a la nina. Adjust expectations accordingly.
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I feel like many are chasing a 20”+ big dog and anything less is a rug (even something close to a 4-8er)
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I’m thinking the same. But i’ll take anything before the 10th!
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Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.
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Yep, that’s all we can take away at this moment. Jan 5-12 is still what I’m cautiously optimistic about, and the pattern still looks good after. There may be a couple/few days where we relax or warm up, but we have not lost this yet.
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Gefs 18z a bit better than 12z, more like 06z
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The 18z gfs wasn’t that bad. A “disaster” run would be a torch with 5 to 10 C 850s with a constant stream of western cutters. This one always had the boundary close or just south of us with some shots at us. A couple of those shots were a bit warm, but at that range, it wouldn’t take much at all. 500s look good.
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All ensembles slowly build a +PNA ridge between 240-360 hrs. AK vortex quickly fades and retros west
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I echo this sentiment. Lots of good analysis in here.
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We already had a Jan 2025 last year, so let’s roll the dice with Jan 2026
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Hopefully it’ll improve the mood in their subforum.
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I’ll let Ji handle this one
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I don’t usually start paying attention to thermals until less than a week out. Models don’t do as good a job with low level temperatures compared to 500mb beyond a week. It’s a well known warm bias with the euro weeklies.
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Weeklies trended even colder 2nd half of Jan, held for the first half.
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We do now have a few trackable events in the Jan 5-12 period (plus the NYD clipper). Even though they’re not showing what we want right now, there’s a lot of time for these to trend in our favor. It’s definitely not a shit the blinds pattern, but we need some luck on our side.
