Terpeast

Verification scores coming in for ai-gfs and its ensembles, ai is doing better than their dynamic counterparts. But that’s not saying much. I’d say its middle of the pack on par with op euro and geps, with ai euro leading the pack.

Agreed. Also if this weekend’s coastal ends up weaker than currently forecasted, way end up with less confluence to the NE and allow next week’s minor event to come back up north. Again, minor is the operational word. Upside was never very high with that one. The Feb 10-15 window is another to keep an eye on.

Fair. I just never really bought into the northern track because I wanted to wait until it got within 100 hrs. Sure I got excited for a brief moment when euro shifted NW, but I wanted to wait until it showed the same shift for 3 consecutive runs. It didn’t this time. Next week is a weaker event that goes on a more W-E trajectory, a different type of event that isn’t really comparable to this weekend.

We may get closer to seasonal, but still cold enough to support snow given the right storm track.

Low of 5 right now, could go lower

For now it looks like a minor event just like it appeared a few days ago, but I'm waiting until D4 lead time to make any statements with confidence about it. That's when the models seem to be locking in the best.

Also I'm not buying the warmup shown by some AI models in Feb (the warmest ones have been the worst performers). I think we remain cold for at least the next 2 weeks, probably 3. We'll get our chances, some of which the models may not be showing at this time.

Wild that y'all are giving up on this event next week. There's still plenty of disagreement among models, and most give us something. That coastal miss this weekend really got to you, huh?

Euro AIFS shows a weaker and further south track than the AI GFS.

LWX casual mention of the event next week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of light snow mid next week. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A shortwave-trough is fcst to dive from the Northern Plains into the mid Mississippi River Valley Tue afternoon into Wednesday. This feature is then forecast to become a closed low and induce sfc cyclogenesis across the Southeast. The Canadian model shows the weakest and most southern solution while the ECMWF the strongest and a more favorable track. This latest 00Z EC solution is a significant break in continuity to prior runs that showed a weaker solution and snow amounts between a trace and one inch. The EPS and EC AIFS suggest that the deterministic Euro is likely overdone and show a much weaker solution. The EPS shows the probs of 0.01" of QPF in the 60-70% range and of 0.1" QPF in the 30-50% range across the area in the 12Z Wed-00Z Thu time frame.

I think AI-GFS did okay with the last storm here, it was almost in lockstep with the Euro AIFS. So I won't kick it out of bed with that precip depication...

Feb 4-6 is looking more like a minor event, hope we can tap into that. Otherwise Feb 11-14 looks like something with more moisture to work with.

It's yours. Are you gonna deliver?

I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e

Yeah, nice thing about this forum is you just know before even looking at the models

Remember the old days when it was just 2-3 models? Now we have dozens. This hobby is so tiring

Yeah, I'm still giving it one more day but agree we're running out of time

Pacific flow is too fast to back the kicker vort off, so might as well bring it closer and phase to bring that sucker up north.

Based on all these posts about the kicker kicking the ULL out to sea, I think there's a bit of a misunderstanding of what a "kicker" really is and what role it plays. Some extra vorticity behind the main low doesn't really act to "kick" it east. The main issue is wave spacing. If spaced far enough apart, there's little or no effect... the ULL is on its own and may or may not close/neg tilt depending on the overall trough/ridge orientation and/or any upstream blocking if any. If spaced close enough though, they begin to phase and pull the ULL north, as has happened on 1/25/00. But if they are closely spaced but not close enough to phase, i.e. poor wave spacing, the flow becomes flattened in between, making it harder for the ULL to deepen. I think we've went over this before. It's not so much of a "kicker" but wave spacing.

you can see how the "kicker" starts to pull that ULL up north instead of booting it out to sea - it was close enough to do that.

Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well....

Yeah, I've been tracking storms for this region long enough to never count out a north trend in the last 1-2 days. What keeps me optimistic is the precip shield has been ticking further west all the way across VA in some of the credible models. Otherwise, it could be confined all the way south into eastern NC, at which point I'd have been ready to write this off. It was almost looking that way yesterday, and then it trended west last night into this morning.

I don't think we're any closer to the final solution yet, but we have 1 less day to make those large shifts.

Or speed it up and phase into the 500mb low, pull it west and north and it's a hit

Looks better than 0z, but not as good as 18z