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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
If it were up to me, tomorrow midday after 12z runs come in would probably be a good time to issue watches (if they’re still showing what they are now). One thing going for NWS is that this storm doesn’t happen during commute, at least until it’s over New England -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gefs basically a hold at 72, looks good -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
My sister is flying in the next day to visit me and my kids. So… -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gefs 66 neg tilt, sfc looks the same, ass hair west -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gefs to 60, ss vort sharper -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
0z gefs NS vort separates a bit by backing off, while southern vort amps a bit. Let’s see -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
I don’t envy their jobs right now that’s for sure -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not sure how others are seeing a tick east. Noise level changes in SLP position and precip shield (the extent, not amounts) has actually expanded west i’m more worried about bigger changes at h5 before storm formation -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Definitely a different path to the promised land. It almost looked like it was gonna miss the phase and cave spectacularly, but it still somehow spun up a more miller A like coastal (or miller a/b hybrid) -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Just need a better phase. It’s close -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
As you probably know, hrrr isn’t comparable with the globals because it isn’t a global model. But same goes for the nam, which we do pbp on anyway -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Seems euro made a bigger move west than the gfs moved east. Maybe they meet in the middle and give us 6-10”. That would be nice -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
More neg tilt at h5 with precip axis further west from 12z -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Now we just need it to deepen at our latitude -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
18z euro trying to phase at 45 -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
We’re counting on you! -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
That would get us to climo for the season -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Eh, more of a hold. Clustering in the same area mostly -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
I was starting to wonder if that dual low was the beginning of a cave to other guidance with the low further east. 12z didn’t have this, it was all in on a tucked low. Now we see it having one foot on other guidance, and other foot on what it showed for 12z. I think it rides the fence between these two camps for 1-2 more runs, then falls to the main camp along with other guidance. -
I have a feeling the gfs will hold onto the big storm until tomorrow 12z or even later, then do the most spectacular cave we have ever seen. By that time, the damage will have been done.
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thats a legit ULL, we’ve gotten something like this before when getting missed by the coastal itself -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z at least to get better consensus. Yet another can-kick. Unless you toss the gfs AND its ensembles, then maybe we’re getting closer to the right idea. Not sure I agree with the trough going neg tilt so fast given how the progressive flow has been. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
(not that I'm buying the GFS, just surprised that it doubled down and went west instead of shifting east like the other models) -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Great news
