Terpeast

Amazing for you guys up there. While luck wasn’t on our side in the mid-atlantic, NYC’s winter and the NC HECS gives me even more conviction that the MA is not yet done with HECS potential and blockbuster winters like 95-96 and 09-10, etc.

I have a hard time envisioning the physics that link a SSW to a subsequent el nino (or la nina). I imagine the top-down effects would be confined mainly to the polar domain or mid latitudes, but not tropics. Conversely, enso is driven mainly by tropical ocean-atmosphere (KWs and WWBs mostly) and then those forcing effects propagate to mid- and polar-latitudes via rossby waves, and then bottom-up into the stratosphere. But the other way around? I dunno.

I think we enjoyed last year more. More powdery and lots more sledding. This time it was tough, hard/fast sledding and my daughter got a bit scared. We did make a killer igloo though!

Yeah, we had cold and no real torch this winter. Snowcover was great. And the atmosphere threw some HECS, but they both missed. We only needed one direct hit, and it would have changed the entire picture.

Wow, the color scheme really brings out our luck (or lack thereof) this winter. It could have been one for the ages, but we did not have luck on our side. That won’t last forever though. It’ll flip at some point.

Why would it?

Bring it. Good time to put netting over my fig tree so the squirrels don't steal all my figs like they did last fall.

On a CWG post on facebook I saw a quote from Wes Junker saying that the atmosphere doesn't really support a storm here, the models are "overcooking" it rn. Upside is only a dusting and maybe a few lucky inches. He's one I respect and knows what he's talking about, so that dampened any remaining enthusiasm for tracking this (not that I had much to begin with).

At least maybe we go straight into severe wx tracking

Probably the last trackable event of the year. If it comes to fruition, it may get me to my median climo. Once again, I’m waiting until lead times of 84-96 hours or less to really buy in.

Definitely more than I got. Think my location was a bit unlucky with the last one. It all melted by 3 pm the next day.

We’re not in an el nino yet

Great post, thank you. We’ll keep an eye on how the nino develops and how much it strengthens. I don’t know how we will end up categorizing the type, but I don’t think we go higher than moderate based on RONI.

Evolution of nino usually starts as east based then broadens to basin wide and ends as modoki as coastal South America cools/upwells. This time we should probably use RONI for the strength of el nino because the tropics are also warm across the board.

East based isn’t always great for us. We’d prefer modoki or central basin

He lives in NM or something like that? East based is what he wants, I think

Yeah. If the PDO doesn’t take its annual nosedive this summer, we may have a shot at more +pna now that coastal storm tracks seem to be coming back, and we may also get more blocking up top. Couple that with storms (both tropical and midlatitude) getting more intense with more moisture than in the past, we may have an above normal shot at a MECS if the nino doesn’t go ape. I don’t think it will because the WWBs have been struggling and the SOI is still positive, and subsurface is only mildly AN. If this was gonna be a super, we’d already be seeing +6 subsurface with a negative SOI by now.

While an el nino makes miller a coastal storms that drop copious amounts of qpf over us more likely due to a more active STJ, it is no guarantee we get a MECS+. It could just be rain, like 97-98. We could get nothing, like 72-73. Or we might just get a couple of NS systems and the rest is torch, like 23-24. It does increase our chances, but we need cold air, blocking, and polar jet and all the ingredients. Active STJ is only one of many ingredients.

Damn it, I’m getting pulled back in. Wife is gonna be mad at me

Winter storm tracking burnout is real

Yes that’s what I believe. We just saw it happen in NE. Powder keg

It will be. Can’t say when, but I have no doubt. The coastal storm tracks seem to be making a comeback. It’s like darts… throw enough of them and eventually you get a bullseye. And with more moisture/vapor in the air, oh man

Yeah seems low to me. I was on the edge of that band or just outside of it and still managed to claw my way to 2.5”. Other Ashburn reports on LWX PNS confirm this as well with 2.8” readings. I would have thought IAD would be at 3” or even more. Maybe they just stuck a ruler on the pavement after all that compaction and melting.

That little yellow band did wonders for that area. I was barely/briefly on the western edge of it

BWI 1.9” DCA 1.0” IAD 2.0”