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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Your guess is as good as mine. It’ll be a narrow band only 10-20 miles wide. Either we’re in a good spot for it or not. We’ll probably know the answer to this early tomorrow evening when it begins to form. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
I think there’s a limit to how far east it’ll go as the sfc low track is pretty much locked in +/- 30 miles, and most models have had the norlun from HGR - W loudoun - Fauquier though it shifted east by maybe 10-20 miles on 00z. I don’t think it’ll shift further east by more than 10-20 miles, and certainly not to bmore unless the storm actually changes track -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
36/31, ticking down -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gfs shifted that norlun east every run over the last 6 runs, while keeping the ccb and slp largely the same. Interesting -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
It wants to put that norlun over us -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
38/30, dropped two degrees in the past hour -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Just now catching up - had company over today so was quiet. Looks like the ccb may not get far enough west here, and I don’t want to gamble on the norlun, I’m thinking the local min may be imby or close. Running out of time for bigger changes. Should be a great storm with double digits E/NE of DC, and maybe someone lucky will see 10” from the norlun (and I don’t think its going to be me). Historic for DE/PHL/NJ/NYC/BOS, though! Fun to watch from a met perspective. PS. i’m at 40/29. Tad warm, not sure what the models had me at for this time. -
Soundings have us at 33-34 at 18z tomorrow. Other runs/models were 35-37
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Thats what the western suburbs need! Slp is 10-20 miles NW but the precip shield is way west and heavier because of better H5 as you showed in your pbp
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More energy from trailing vort sucked into the main one
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Yeah, it doesn’t match climatology of past storms like this.
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I would adjust bmore up to 7” and also winchester is probably way too low
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Nice! I can see something like this happening if the lows tuck west and throws the ccb further west into nova/81. Let’s see if 18z/0z models start showing this
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That’s how I would do it. It’s not a 3” fluffy powder WWA type of event. It’s a 4”+ heavy dripping wet slush that will weigh down trees and limbs and power lines.
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If they turn out to be correct (which is unlikely but not impossible), we could get the CCB all the way to 81
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We may well get pummeled with that if lucky. Even if not, euro was a great shift in our favor
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Not what we wanted to see, but still maybe a 2-4er instead of 3-6er, and there’s always the norlun possibility
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The February 22-23 Late Season Miracle: JV Disco/Banter Thread
Terpeast replied to bncho's topic in Mid Atlantic
I like your thinking. Historic or even double digit totals were never really in the cards for the DMV and west. It was shown on maybe 1-2 runs mostly on the gfs. The bulls eye was always constantly east/NE of us. -
I’m thinking 3-6” in VA/DMV east of 15 towards I-95, high end if caught under norlun banding.
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I think you’ll do better than me in eastern loudoun unless the ccb comes 20 miles west. You have better elevation (I’m a little over 300 ft) and I could get stuck between the ccb and ivt bands.
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I am too. i’ll take a 10-20 mile shift of the ccb over trying to bank on the IVT band
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So close to double digits from the ccb in eastern loudoun. Just 10 more miles please
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Definitely still in the game. The heavier daytime precip is, the better. The more precip after 5pm/sunset, the better. Hopefully both west of 95
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Yeah we’re not out of the game yet. No, we won’t jack like NJ/LI - but that’s nothing new. I grew up here watching them get 1-2’ while I get a few inches. That has happened a lot more than many on here think, perhaps due to recency bias. To me, it’s more of a reversion to the 80s/90s with adjusted for today’s climate. Maybe we revert to the 00s/10s soon. We’re starting to see BM storm tracks again, so there’s that.
