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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Euro AI ens maintains a +NAO through most of its run, may be able to shock this winter back to life
  2. Terpeast
    Fog
  3. Terpeast
    Looks a lot like 97-98 in terms of snowfall where the apps and interior get dumped on while coastal plains get below climo. But we only need one! (Speaking for the MA)
  4. Terpeast
    All good. With lack of time to do these analyses myself, I tend to make these one off comments going only by memory. But I probably shouldn’t do that, since I work in a different field now and my memory isn’t what it used to be
  5. Terpeast
    Sorry to hear about your loss. My condolences @RickinBaltimore
  6. Terpeast
    Was gonna respond to this with a plot I did years ago showing how the 500mb pattern over the east often reverses from October to DJF (eg east ridge winter after troughing in oct), but the plotting tool I’m using seems to be broken and I don’t have the time to try another tool. I also hadn’t broken it down between la nina and el nino years when I did it back then. What I meant was not only october snow, but the bigger picture of the overall pattern. But without the plots, I can’t make that case now. Oh well.
  7. Terpeast
    Maybe the bad omen only applies to DMV, I have checked the data before. It didn’t look good. But there are always exceptions
  8. Terpeast
    0.18”, low end of what most of the area got. But glad to see that it at least rained
  9. Terpeast
    October snows are a bad omen
  10. Terpeast
    It looks like the strong +AO pushed the mid-high lat ridges further south
  11. Terpeast
    With that in mind, the pdo stopped falling per WCS. Lowest it got was -1.8, now its up to -1.64 today. Should get back to near neutral in a month or so
  12. Terpeast
    The PDO drop back is unfortunate. It’s now around where it was at this time last year, and there is still some time for the PDO to rise back up to near neutral once the marine heat wave area cools off with the season change. But I think +PDO territory is off the table, and the clock is ticking for us to even get back to neutral.
  13. Terpeast
    Hail commanders!!!!
  14. Terpeast
    Yeah, most of the tropical convection is very east based with the MC completely shut down (finally, after 10 years). Interestingly there is some remaining convection right around the dateline or just to the east of it. If I loop the forecast forward, that piece stays there. I think it may actually help us a bit this winter if it keeps going. If not, and it stays this east based, that won’t be good news for our cold/snow chances.
  15. Terpeast
    Rain starting in ashburn. 58
  16. Terpeast
    What a fabulous day today, wish we had more days like this
  17. Terpeast
    Low of 49
  18. Terpeast
    2.5” event total in Ashburn, that was good. Feels like fall, finally
  19. Terpeast
    2.33” total yesterday and today, closing in on 4” MTD. And it was supposed to be a dry month according to the models
  20. Terpeast
    Haha i actually use TT most of the time it’s most mobile friendly. I like pivotal for desktop analysis but its not as mobile friendly
  21. Terpeast
    I don’t even check the surface for cfs maps, just 500mb and draw my own conclusions
  22. Terpeast
    In a super nino year, if I could get one big dog that beats my PR of 30”, the rest of the winter can be in the 60s for all I care.
  23. Terpeast
    1.08” yesterday and 0.77” today
  24. Terpeast
    Thats also my guess. Weaker goa/aleutian low, and I also wonder if it will be further west allowing for more -epo. But who really knows. I would expect the unexpected.
  25. Terpeast
    If PDO stays negative there are going to be a lot of papers about how PDO and ENSO modulate each other in a warming climate. But if we look at the WCS chart, the PDO was much more negative at this time than it is now. Last year it was around -1.8 and today about -0.7 give or take.
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