Quick note about 0z data ingest… it’ll most likely take a few runs for the models to gel after that. It won’t be an instant change at 0z. More like a trend from 0z to 12z, then we should have a better idea of the track.
Model reshuffling in progress… and I don’t think we’re done yet!
The NS wave practically has to do a full lap around the hudson bay and phase with a piece from the GOA/Alaska vortex. Very complex and very volatile. So far 18z (and 0z NAM) jumped our way instead of the other way.
may be hopium, but I remember bluewave posting a year or so ago a 3-run animation of the Euro that had a 2021 (or 2022? can't remember) storm 1000 miles OTS in one run, and then a NYC bullseye hit 2 runs later.
The clustering of sfc low positions gives better info than median, while median is better for looking at scalar variables like temps/QPF/snowfall amounts.
You can see lots of western clustering to the left of the mean low
Not a good sign if the Euro shifted away. Still giving it a day or so, though. With such a delicate setup and lots of moving parts, a lot can happen in shorter lead times.