Terpeast

Your guess is as good as mine. It’ll be a narrow band only 10-20 miles wide. Either we’re in a good spot for it or not. We’ll probably know the answer to this early tomorrow evening when it begins to form.

I think there’s a limit to how far east it’ll go as the sfc low track is pretty much locked in +/- 30 miles, and most models have had the norlun from HGR - W loudoun - Fauquier though it shifted east by maybe 10-20 miles on 00z. I don’t think it’ll shift further east by more than 10-20 miles, and certainly not to bmore unless the storm actually changes track

36/31, ticking down

Gfs shifted that norlun east every run over the last 6 runs, while keeping the ccb and slp largely the same. Interesting

It wants to put that norlun over us

38/30, dropped two degrees in the past hour

Just now catching up - had company over today so was quiet. Looks like the ccb may not get far enough west here, and I don’t want to gamble on the norlun, I’m thinking the local min may be imby or close. Running out of time for bigger changes. Should be a great storm with double digits E/NE of DC, and maybe someone lucky will see 10” from the norlun (and I don’t think its going to be me). Historic for DE/PHL/NJ/NYC/BOS, though! Fun to watch from a met perspective. PS. i’m at 40/29. Tad warm, not sure what the models had me at for this time.

Soundings have us at 33-34 at 18z tomorrow. Other runs/models were 35-37

Thats what the western suburbs need! Slp is 10-20 miles NW but the precip shield is way west and heavier because of better H5 as you showed in your pbp

More energy from trailing vort sucked into the main one

Yeah, it doesn’t match climatology of past storms like this.

I would adjust bmore up to 7” and also winchester is probably way too low

Nice! I can see something like this happening if the lows tuck west and throws the ccb further west into nova/81. Let’s see if 18z/0z models start showing this

That’s how I would do it. It’s not a 3” fluffy powder WWA type of event. It’s a 4”+ heavy dripping wet slush that will weigh down trees and limbs and power lines.

If they turn out to be correct (which is unlikely but not impossible), we could get the CCB all the way to 81

We may well get pummeled with that if lucky. Even if not, euro was a great shift in our favor

Not what we wanted to see, but still maybe a 2-4er instead of 3-6er, and there’s always the norlun possibility

I like your thinking. Historic or even double digit totals were never really in the cards for the DMV and west. It was shown on maybe 1-2 runs mostly on the gfs. The bulls eye was always constantly east/NE of us.

I’m thinking 3-6” in VA/DMV east of 15 towards I-95, high end if caught under norlun banding.

I think you’ll do better than me in eastern loudoun unless the ccb comes 20 miles west. You have better elevation (I’m a little over 300 ft) and I could get stuck between the ccb and ivt bands.

I am too. i’ll take a 10-20 mile shift of the ccb over trying to bank on the IVT band

So close to double digits from the ccb in eastern loudoun. Just 10 more miles please

Definitely still in the game. The heavier daytime precip is, the better. The more precip after 5pm/sunset, the better. Hopefully both west of 95

Yeah we’re not out of the game yet. No, we won’t jack like NJ/LI - but that’s nothing new. I grew up here watching them get 1-2’ while I get a few inches. That has happened a lot more than many on here think, perhaps due to recency bias. To me, it’s more of a reversion to the 80s/90s with adjusted for today’s climate. Maybe we revert to the 00s/10s soon. We’re starting to see BM storm tracks again, so there’s that.