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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Your forecast gets me into the warning criteria
  2. Terpeast
  3. Terpeast
  4. Terpeast
    3-5 imby, 4-6 DC north
  5. Terpeast
    A good hold by the GEFS. I'd cut those snow amounts by 30% NW of 95 to account for thermals in the first half of the storm, and maybe even by half SE of the fall line unless they get crazy rates (which it looks like they might).
  6. Terpeast
    Yeah, and at least we have the temps going for us as we're well NW of the cities/fall line. Modeled radar shows heavy precip and that could be enough to get accumulating snow during the day time if the GFS is right.
  7. Terpeast
    Still changes with the SW canada shortwave on gfs even at hour 18
  8. Terpeast
    Yep, we've been in a -PNA regime for weeks now. We're lucky we're even talking about snow at all rn
  9. Terpeast
    That's 6z?
  10. Terpeast
    Haha, that’s how he rolls!
  11. Terpeast
    No I mean the thermals part. It was correct about the warm nose on Jan 25
  12. Terpeast
    Probably time to start looking at cams for thermals now though
  13. Terpeast
    High end updated from LWX (low end is 0-T of course haha)
  14. Terpeast
    I think we should be rooting for a later start time either way. Get the clouds here during the day to hold off the sun angle, and then thump overnight for best snow-maxing
  15. Terpeast
    Split them down the middle, and account for temps, perhaps 3-5" for us and 4-8"+ DC and northeast
  16. Terpeast
    Yeah the ratios probably won't be 10:1. I'd probably go with 70% of that
  17. Terpeast
    qpf/snow ticked up (or west) with 6z gefs
  18. Terpeast
    Well this is Maestro's storm, so maybe it is really happening!
  19. Terpeast
    GEFS more interaction in the mean between ns and ss out west at 30
  20. Terpeast
    I think gfs and euro camps are starting to meet in the middle. Hopefully the middle is as beefy in qpf as this
  21. Terpeast
    foot plus for dc metro, more towards the bay and delmarva (2 feet) I'd mentally cut those amounts by 20-30% considering daytime snow and temps.
  22. Terpeast
    Very nick tuck. northern Delmarva gets the goods
  23. Terpeast
    Looks maybe a few hours faster
  24. Terpeast
    Just reviewed the overnight runs, looks like mostly a hold, or at least similar to 12z yesterday. 18z was the high bar. Hoping to see more of a consensus today...
  25. Terpeast
    If it were up to me, tomorrow midday after 12z runs come in would probably be a good time to issue watches (if they’re still showing what they are now). One thing going for NWS is that this storm doesn’t happen during commute, at least until it’s over New England
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