Terpeast
-
Posts
5,835 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Terpeast
-
Ok I thought he was on Twitter/X. I’ll pass on discord though, too many apps too little time. Thanks though!
-
Got a link?
-
Sorry, was talking in terms of weather degree days. A gain in degree days means the model trended colder nationally (likely for the east since it is more heavily weighted by population). A loss means warmer. This is primarily for the energy and nat gas markets.
-
I think we will like the EPS. Huge degree day gain from 12z
-
Yeah, the teleconnection indices are becoming more favorable for us in that time frame than they are this week.
-
500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this.
-
I know that street. Lived in that neighborhood for a semester and walked to class through there.
-
Yes. This has both glory and heartbreak written all over it.
-
We better keep that 500mb low at the latitude it passes. Can’t afford any further shift north.
-
Still better, energy at 500 more south
-
Yes its a miller b with high bust potential. Best we can expect is 3-5” for many on the forum, 1-3” for others
-
Cape storm looks better consolidated this run
-
Nugget of support for Jan 24-26 potential
-
43 after a midnight high of 50. Looking for it to drop later today.
-
On a serious note, SER being muted in 11-15 day ensembles. Sticking with persistence for now. And a little SE ridging ahead won’t hurt if there’s a big one approaching.
-
Basically said the same thing lol
-
It’s also nice that it was the euro that showed this. If it was the gfs, we wouldn’t have blinked at one of its yet another goofus antics
-
Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario
-
Good hold by the gfs. I like the h5 vort being further south and west of previous runs, temps be damned. This is the path to victory
-
And there is a flip side to this, how infrequent that may be. Jan 2024 gave us a pair of NS storms that dropped 2-5” across our area. Ens means were an inch or less up until 24 hours before the event - in both cases. BUT the lack of ens support is a red flag that we can look back on if this event fails to materialize for us.
-
Also didn’t break 50 today. Yesterday was 53. Was supposed to be the warmest days in the 60s in this January thaw.
-
18z op euro was mostly a skipper. Problem was the 500mb low passed north of us. We can’t have that if we want snow from this event.
-
Finished with 1.14”, first time in many months I’ve had a 1”+ event
-
18z gefs also digging more sw for the cape storm. 12z old run
-
Fwiw gefs is more “diggy” for the jan 15 storm 18z 12z
