Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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0.77” so far
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Similar forecast maps leading up to last winter. Gulf coast looks bone dry on that forecast, meaning little/no chance of miller A coastals. So like the last 2 winters, we need to get our snows from northern streamers that trend south or deamplify in short lead times.
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Yeah as bluewave says we can look at what the mjo does in Oct to see if we get that kind of mismatch. I also think we’ll have better blocking because the qbo is negative this time, which is the main difference from last winter and from 22-23. Maybe that means we get an extra episode thrown in, and/or extend each blocking episode by a few days or so.
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Incredible. Big hole to climb out of for this winter, it’s possible as it happened last year, but this year it may be harder.
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Yep, that’s pretty much what he is saying. And I’m thinking the same.
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Busted on precip, but its so refreshing out. Went for a 30 min run at 68 degrees.
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FYI: pns25-41_RRFS_legacy_model_cessation.pdf To save you a click, the topic is about "Soliciting Comments on Proposed Discontinuation of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and other Regional Modeling Systems to be Replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) through July 26, 2025."
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Reached 98.1 just now, but not sure it’ll go up that much more because clouds are starting to pop up, meaning convective temps have been hit like midatlanticwx says.
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96 already at 11:30 am. 78 dewpoint
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Yeah its only June. Plenty of time for another ridge to build over the top.
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Hit 99.7 max, close but no cigar. Down to 97.9. Maybe an hour left for another push to 100, but I don't think it's going to happen
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97/74, HI 109 - 1 degree ahead of yesterday. 50/50 I reach 100
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91 at 9:30 am, running 2.5 degrees ahead of yesterday. Legit shot at 100 today, probably the better chance than tomorrow.
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Morning low of 75, which is really warm for mby
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Yep I was thinking the same after all that rain in May thru early June. This humidity is no joke.
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Last year was hot, but iirc dews were lower, upper 60s low 70s. This time it felt like a whole new level.
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Feels like the 96 at IAD doesn’t do justice on how hot it was here. Dews were really high. 75-79 in most obs west of the airport.
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So far 99 for the high, peak HI of 119! Currently 98.8/76.3 (114.6 HI)
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97.5 for the high, max HI 115
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94/105, heat advisory verified
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92/75 at noon, HI 104
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90 at noon
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Mine is 91 for the high, and I’m at 88 at 11 am
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Lost power for an hour. Rain rate topped 3”/hr at one point. Winds were gnarly. Probably verified at low-end severe (60mph). Only 0.6” total, short but intense.
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This isn’t the first time. These neutral teases aren’t going to cut it. We need it to break through to sustained +1 at least
