Terpeast

Tbh I don’t actually consider 21-22 a dud, some places cashed in nicely and those who didn’t had just plain bad luck. However, the chance for another dud is very real and unfortunately that’s how the data is presenting itself currently. But I think that would be too easy. I believe there will be a surprise X factor (maybe the NE pac warm blob?) that throws a wrench into the standard nina/-pna climo progression to keep us in the game.

I’ve had my eye on 17-18 as well, in addition to 21-22. I’m on the fence about 22-23, but if I’m going to include that analog I feel the need to balance that with either 13-14 or 24-25, maybe even both. Sensibly for us that might mean a couple of months with NN/BN temps and fairly dry, and at least one torch month. Hopefully we get some blocking and some moisture to keep things interesting tracking-wise.

Thanks. It’s a bit surprising. If the AO is going to be positive, then we should root for a +NAO instead of - Wondering if the SE ridge linkage happens more with a +AO/-NAO regime…

Did you make this chart yourself? This is really instructive. Have you by any chance made one for KDCA as well? I suspect that would be even more tilted in favor of -AO.

The former. PDO rising in the fall, then falling back into the abyss during spring and summer has become something like a broken record the past few years. I don’t think we will know when it ends until the PDO stays well into positive territory for at least several months.

I just looked at the animation, and that warm blob ticking east looks like a promising sign. Let’s see if it isn’t just a blip, though. Another good sign is the atlantic isn’t boiling anymore. Most of that basin appears to be near normal, maybe slightly above overall. Re MJO I wonder if the models are under forecasting the amplitude. If this hollmover forecast plot is correct, it’s pretty strong. This pans out, we could see more +PNA this winter… making it more like last year than a blowtorch winter like 2022-23.

Yeah lets move that warm blob underneath the aleutians further east into GOA in the next couple of months, and we’re in business.

My concern is not so much the winter temps, but the lack of precipitation. Seasonal forecast maps look very very dry here on south.

0.07”. I was out this weekend so I didn’t track this storm, so does anyone remember which models correctly forecasted the evolution of this coastal storm? Take note of that for winter.

If this continues to hold (a big if) we may do even better than last year with the -qbo. Low expectations going in, though.

Yeah, some are just dooming. Not entirely without reason. I’m concerned about this winter for our sakes, but I don’t think it will be a total shutout like 22-23 (those are still rare). I do think not only we’ll average +3 over the entire season, but also see at least a couple of 2-week -epo/+pna window of opportunities for a decent event or two. Cold air source regions are starting to build and ahead of where they were last year, so not all hope is lost.

I’d say in general, we don’t want a cold october as that tends to correlate with milder winters. So if a -NAO causes a colder october in the east, we probably will want to root against it.

I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it.

FWIW…

Low of 45 last two mornings. Glorious out

When the PDO eventually flips positive, even slightly so, and we get a bona fide El Nino. It has to happen sometime

Best case? 24-25 Worst case? 22-23 Probably something in between.

2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.

The AI models still have a long way to go, but they have been particularly good at predicting tropical cyclone tracks.

1.39” pleasantly surprised

Bring it! Will be nice to take hour walks in the morning without dripping buckets of sweat.

I think I see why. Looking at the upper left of each plot, the jet is further north in the new vs old. So instead of buckling southward into western US, it goes over the top of NW Canada promoting a ridge there. Big changes downstream.

And part of the problem with 22-23 was the timing of those favorable patterns. They happened outside of our peak winter window. Had they occurred in Jan and Feb instead of Dec and Mar, the outcome would probably not have been a ratter like it was.

Agree. While I may not agree with all parts of it, it's not as hype-y as the title may suggest.

Cosigned. -PDO actually starting to reverse