Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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The shaded colors illustrate it well. I think its an offset and they cancel each other out
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So about the same strength and a tick further back. If nam is ingesting the new data, this hasn’t really changed anything imo. All comes down to the NE wave now
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I’m also starting to think that the new data from the southern piece may not even change things all that much. Everything comes down to what’s going on over Canada. Hope they ingest data from up there.
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Less phasing, more confluence (TPV up top that wasn’t shown in 12z)
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Hopefully they’re just narrowing things down and meet in the middle or even closer to Euro’s side, then we’re fine. Unfortunately it’s a bit of a forum divider in terms of mixing.
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Yeah west Loudoun stays all snow this run verbatim. I flip for a bit, but not before 14” (again, verbatim)
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This is after 12 hours of snow, 6-9 hours heavy.
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700mb temps - 0 line briefly touches DC on one panel then collapses south.
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When looking at the 00z runs tonight, pay attention to the difference in both waves out west between 0 hr in the new run vs 6 hr forecast in the previous run. That might give us clues IF there are any differences that stand out.
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Dangerous to buy into the NAM trend, but it was within its range (60hr) when it spaced the NS and SS waves apart and strengthened confluence. We'll see if other models do the same and backtrack its NW trend.
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My mom just asked me how much I think we're getting. I gave her a conservative estimate, 6-12" with some sleet. She lives closer to dc proper than I do, so for my own backyard I'd bump that up a couple inches.
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Well, that's kind of extreme. I'd disagree with him in that Chicago is getting the goods while we mix/ice. Certainly won't rule out some sleet here, but I'd put the snow max along the spine of the Apps through central/northern MD.
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That being said, I don't think the CMC is right in driving that strong low into the OHV with an arctic airmass in place like that.
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Model reshuffling in progress. At least CMC gives us 10" before topping off as sleet. If that's the "worst" case scenario, well...
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You're right. There are more overamped EPS scenarios, but the goal posts are still pretty wide.
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Still shows the majority of solutions with the max across our south of us. Overamped scenarios are still in the minority.
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Key words: "especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic"
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If I'm at 20.6" I'll tolerate a bit of ice. Whatever falls will become a glacier for at least two weeks maybe three.
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This is 1960s cold.
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Whatever it takes to get 20"+!
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700 mb temps is the level we want to watch for any sleet. BL temps, as depicted right now, are very cold so freezing rain will be minimal. Warmest panel on GFS: Warmest panel on Euro: Warmest panel on CMC - no sounding, but looks like 0-1 degrees C on the sounding over DCA.
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Now I find myself rooting for the GFS. How things have changed in 24 hours. Perhaps this is the "model reshuffle" I've been talking about for days. Hopefully the recon flights get us new data and things tick back south a bit. We don't want this thing phasing too fast too soon.
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I see we’ve had a north trend where we flirt with mixing or do mix before the storm ends. I knew it. But still a good front ender.
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If the cold air/high and TPV strength was overdone by the models AND the NS vort digs even more, that would do it. But I do think 100 miles is the max it can shift from this setup and lead time. Could be less. Hopefully not more.
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I don’t want too much to change either. But if I had to guess, final track will be shifted about 100 miles north of what the entire model average is now. Maybe 150. Might put our forum in the jack, and maybe even flirt with mixing across the southern half. I’ve seen so many big ones shift north like this.
