Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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If correct, things might throw a wrench into a canonical nina Feb and we get yet another chance then.
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Yep i think bluewave posted that in the main enso thread. Usually it was biased the other way, and this year has been different
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You mean when DCA almost reached 80 degrees in Jan? I seriously doubt it happens this time. Feburary, maybe.
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Looking ahead through end of Jan, all ensembles bring a southern/SE ridge after jan 22… but gefs/geps retrogrades the ridge west toward the end of their runs. If they’re correct, that thaw will only last a few days before it gets colder again. Euro wants to keep the SE ridge all the way through, but with mjo going into 7 I think its wrong and will catch up to gefs/geps.
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Been quiet here not because I’m not excited about the threats, just been busy with family and work. I think this is one of those things where we won’t know what will happen until 48 hours or less till onset.
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What's good for Tennessee is good for us.
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Didn't lose anything. Noise-level changes
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Yeah it wasn’t looking that good yesterday and the day before, but good trends today.
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It better be the 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 flavor not 72-73
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That 12z GFS run gives me goosebumps. Like Heisy said, it's so close.
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Yeah I think we all know there's a reason these KUs happen once or twice every 10 years... or even longer.
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Today's euro weeklies don't look torchy in Feb here, fwiw
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Well I hope I’m wrong about a torch Feb. That was my thinking all along and it hasn’t really changed
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SPV looks like it will tighten up at the end of the month or early Feb. That means we really need to score in the last 2 weeks of Jan to get anywhere near climo. My snowfall contest prediction is only about 50-60% of climo, and even that is iffy. Should reach that with the shots the models are taking at us, but climo? We need a big one to get there.
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MJO 7 is a transition phase which is usually a precursor to our biggest storms (but not always of course).
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Good news, both ens and op models are pushing MJO into 7 by the 20th to 22nd. That will help us later in the month into Feb.
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We should root for a slower wave. Cmc trended slower last 3 runs, and 6z gfs (what we want) is slower than 12z gfs. Too fast, and the phase is missed and or too late
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Big miller a coastal at 10-11 days out. Borderline rainer verbatim, but it’s something. Very promising Euro more of a miller b skipper
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It snowed on my son’s birth date.
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Yep. At 8-10 days out, it won’t take much. We’ve seen way bigger changes at upper levels at less than 5 days out. Unlike some certain folks, I don’t care what the surface shows at that range.
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HH gfs still trying some shenanigans on the 15th. Big -NAO block. We’re not out of this yet.
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Cue the grandpa Simpson door meme.
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that's because the 500mb wave is positively tilted on that one. Need a neutral or neg tilt. But at this range it won't take much
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That should help us later when the PNA goes negative after a brief spike into + territory.
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I'm starting to worry that the Jan 14-17 window is getting can kicked a bit since the 6-10 day eastern trough is getting less strong and the ridging over it is stronger. But the good news is MJO is starting to curve into 7 around day 15. So the pattern change after the 18th is probably real. Still not counting us out for the mid-Jan system, but there could be temp issues east of the BR.
