Terpeast

Next window of interest feb 5-7

Agreed

Looking at 6z euro at 54, it looks like it's gonna get harder to get that neg tilt

Not a good sign if the Euro shifted away. Still giving it a day or so, though. With such a delicate setup and lots of moving parts, a lot can happen in shorter lead times.

Well well. Get ready for the “model reshuffle” tomorrow.

Thanks for sharing. Reflections like these are what makes you a better meteorologist after the storm than before, even though it may not feel like it right now. We all take our lumps and then we do it again for the next one, and so on. I don’t do enough of these self reflections in part to lack of time, busy with work/family, and honestly a bit of burnout from model tracking. But it’s good to do so once in a while, and it’s also good to just go outside and enjoy the snowfall (or pouring sleet) for what it is rather than what we hoped to get.

Well there are two main pieces. First one is the northern stream wave currently over baffin bay, this one is supposed to retrograde to the hudson bay (thanks to the GL block) and do a loop-a-loop there before it swings down into the conus. The southern piece is now in the midst of a fast pac jet just west of the aleutians. It’ll become a new GOA low, but a piece of it will break off, enter the conus tomorrow or Wednesday, and become the southern stream s/w that eventually phases with the northern piece. Clear as mud?

We don’t need a huge shift west. Just a small one.

A lot of moving parts and plenty of atmosphere to go through. A lot can still change yet

Needed to split that energy between midwest and nova scotia sooner

Now i’m liking 12z better

Trying to close off at 117

Taller pna ridge, heights off the EC a bit heigher

On 87, i like the ns wave better

Not sure its gonna do it this time, but we’re looking for a step in the right direction. Not sure yet

But there seems to be more of a “connection” with the energy over nova scotia, which may not be what we want. But it could be nothing

This says a lot about where they really think the storm track is going to be.

Oh definitely. It's a high risk high reward one. Most likely we get little or nothing, but a flush hit? Oh boy

Just checked the euro AI models, they've been windshield wipering the past 3-4 runs. I think the models will need at least a couple of days to get a better handle on this. It may not happen in the next run.

The key thing to watch on the Euro for the next runs is we need the 500mb s/w to dig WEST over Minnesota at valid time 00z Jan 30. The 12z euro didn't dig that as far west as 6z did, and hence the result. So when watching for trends, watch the 500mb vorticity over the Minnesota/Wisconsin/upper lakes.

So as we can see, there are 3 main scenarios/clusters - 1) way OTS fish storms, no one gets anything except maybe cape cod gets clipped, 2) storm tracks from OBX NNE with some tucks/scrapers, 3) miller B esque storms bombing out too late for us.

If anything, 12z EPS is similar to 0z.

Means went east, but there is stronger clustering of SLPs further south just off OBX than the previous run. I'd say its noise at this point and wait until 0z tonight to make any prescriptive statements on where this is going.

Recent storm, we were in the bulls eye or just north of it before the D4 "model reshuffle" (yes I'm coining that phrase). This time let's reshuffle this into us being the bulls eye!

Can't take credit for that gif, someone else made it and I replied to it. But yeah... that is heckuva trend!