Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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I do like the timeframe after Jan 25. Not sure about the Jan 22-25 window, any storm there looks like it wants to cut. But hope we can get a follow up after.
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Yeah, the lack of STJ in a nina.
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Yeah, since early Dec this season has been a slow bleed through time even though not “torchy”. Hoping we cash in during our most favorable climo.
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Just saw the Euro weeklies, good trends up until mid-February. Think we may be able to extend our window until then if it holds!
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Thats what I’m hoping for, a temporary transient -pna as an incoming wave undercuts across the sw towards here.
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I spy a little -PNA the last week of Jan. I hope models are still biased too low on PNA
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Ok I thought he was on Twitter/X. I’ll pass on discord though, too many apps too little time. Thanks though!
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Got a link?
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Sorry, was talking in terms of weather degree days. A gain in degree days means the model trended colder nationally (likely for the east since it is more heavily weighted by population). A loss means warmer. This is primarily for the energy and nat gas markets.
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I think we will like the EPS. Huge degree day gain from 12z
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Yeah, the teleconnection indices are becoming more favorable for us in that time frame than they are this week.
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500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this.
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I know that street. Lived in that neighborhood for a semester and walked to class through there.
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Yes. This has both glory and heartbreak written all over it.
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We better keep that 500mb low at the latitude it passes. Can’t afford any further shift north.
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Still better, energy at 500 more south
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Yes its a miller b with high bust potential. Best we can expect is 3-5” for many on the forum, 1-3” for others
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Cape storm looks better consolidated this run
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Nugget of support for Jan 24-26 potential
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43 after a midnight high of 50. Looking for it to drop later today.
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On a serious note, SER being muted in 11-15 day ensembles. Sticking with persistence for now. And a little SE ridging ahead won’t hurt if there’s a big one approaching.
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Basically said the same thing lol
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It’s also nice that it was the euro that showed this. If it was the gfs, we wouldn’t have blinked at one of its yet another goofus antics
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Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario
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Good hold by the gfs. I like the h5 vort being further south and west of previous runs, temps be damned. This is the path to victory
