Terpeast

Not to toss a wet blanket on this - I love this look, and while it points to a relatively stormy winter for is - I think the ridges will verify stronger and troughs weaker. The more important interpretation of this map is the placement of the troughs and ridges. The trough placement for us is perfect (TN), western ridge axis over Idaho. The E Canada ridge may verify in the same place, but would be more extreme - double digit warm anomalies with blocking that may give us some interesting storm tracks. Please, please just have it cold enough for us.

353 AQI imby. Not going outside. Staying home with my merv-13 filter.

Hit 97 today, underperformed the forecast high of 100-101. But dews were higher

93 imby. I think the smoke/haze is limiting heating at the surface despite high 850mb temps

Pouring! 1.4” in 30 min

When its cold, we can always layer up for it. Not so with heat. And I've spent time in places that are plenty hot. But usually they have some mitigating factors, like a daily sea breeze flowing through Houston in the afternoons, or extra cloudiness in Asia. In the desert SW, it's very dry and stepping in the shade actually feels refreshing. The heat wave we had just hit differently. No sea breeze, no cloudiness to give us shade, and humidity off the charts. Just straight up baking. Our mitigating factor is that these heat waves usually only last a few days to a week.

Picked up 0.45” late in the game.

Seeing outflow boundaries from the south and NE, hoping they collide over mby to give me much needed rains

After a high of 97 with dews around 70, its now 94/75. Seeing convection starting around here. Gross out

Looks like its trying to put out a canonical nino pattern. I think it will be warmer than its saying given all this ocean warmth, but may be not by much. It will be interesting to see if the strength of this el nino will be enough to break the -pdo/-enso background state. 2023-24 nino tried to, but it wasn’t enough.

102.4 for the high imby… and now getting the full split.

Higher high at 102 than yesterday, but peak HI a bit lower at 114

101.5 again today. Still a bit of time to beat that before convection begins.

Just hit 100 again, 4 days in a row imby. Ashburn

98 already at 11 am, running ahead of yesterday. Some high clouds out to the west and SW, which may cut heating short early if that gets here. Dews a bit lower than yesterday.

My pws recorded a 124 HI at the peak. My knee jerk reaction was “no way” because I don’t even live near the water, but after seeing many other obs recording extreme HI values, I started to think its legit. Usually when we break 100, we’d have some mixing to get our dews into the 60s, but they stayed in the 70s and we broke 100 anyway (except IAD)

Mby highs: 7/1 - 100 7/2 - 101 7/3 - 102 (101.5 rounded up)

101.5 high so far. Unless mby makes another late push, that'll probably be it. Current heat index 115

Just hit 100 imby at 1:30 pm

After racing to 99 by noon, it settled a bit with partly cloudy skies. Some clouds will slow the temperature rise, but I still think we'll hit 100-102 in most spots.

Yeah, I'm a bit surprised that IAD has been running 2-3 degrees cooler than surrounding obs.

97 in Ashburn

Already at 95 at 10:30 am

90/76 HI 102

Mby highs: 7/1 - 100 7/2 - 101