Terpeast

Will be interesting to see how the euro shifts for 12z today...

Main takeaway so far is we're not out of this yet. I was hoping for higher confidence today, but looks like confidence will remain low until at least 0z Friday. Yes it sounds like I'm kicking the can, and maybe I am. But all these vorts flying around and a minor change can make a huge difference. This isn't a typical SS wave casually approaching from the SW in a linear manner.

Since I’ve moved back, I’ve averaged 11” imby but that includes the dreadful 22-23 of a winter. So if I take that one out, my avg goes up to 14” over the last 3 winters. Pretty similar to the early 90s iirc, was kinda disappointing after the late 80s which was nuts. At least we’ve had colder stretches this winter and last than those years.

This is why I said to wait until tomorrow

Yeah, it doubled down. But remember it's not as dispersive as it should be at this range. The only reason we're giving it credibility is that its 500mb verification scores are excellent.

I did notice that although the vort was stronger on the mean, it was broader and the tilt wasn't quite as negative (to my eyes). Starting to wonder if it's an increase in dispersiveness among the ensembles before they "reset" (converge) towards a likelier outcome (this typically happens at 4-6 day lead times, where AI ensembles have the opposite problem - under dispersiveness).

EPS mean stronger vort than previous run. Too soon to tell for qpf, mslp, but I don’t think its a giant step back.

Honestly, the euro has been windshield wipering between no storm and storm. I don’t care about run to run shifts on op models at this lead time. Ensembles only until 84-96 hours

And that’s a wrap for this “threat”. (just kidding)

Yeah the synoptics hasn’t really changed much from 06z to 12z on euro ai. Trough is bit broader, but noise at range. Could result in large sfc differences. And btw, this has always been a miller B from the start. Never was a true miller A

Just by looking at the MSLP maps, the 12z GFS did exactly this. It lets go of the primary quicker.

At least Chuck did not say “it’s gonna be rain”.

Wednesday is only tomorrow. If these runs hold through 12z tomorrow, then it's game on for tracking. We haven't had much luck with tracking threats as not many came to fruition except the early December overperformer and Jan 25. Hope we can turn that luck around.

Not a hit, but there is a storm close miss south unlike absolutely nothing previous couple runs

That deform jack over Loudoun. Beautiful

Gefs look solid. Even better than 12z, quite different from the op. One reason - western ridge taller 18z compared to previous runs

And that’s the way it should be, imo. Outside of 96, ensembles and how they trend to get a general idea of threat windows. Only when we start looking at op runs inside 96 do we start getting invested.

Jury’s still out. Keep in mind that it is a 64 member ensemble

We have better consensus across the ensembles, and if they hold, the ops will follow in the next couple days. Then we have something legit to track!

We had consensus last Wed for last night’s storm. Just a few straggler models trying to reel us back in

EPS jumped south with qpf and snow means, more consolidated MSLP signal

Op euro doesn’t quite do it, but a step closer to the good camps. We don’t have consensus yet, so probably need to wait until Wednesday for that.

0.63”

Don S posted a link to a good paper discussing the change in storm tracks that had a hand in greatly diminishing snowfall across PA and the northern half of our sub. Worth a read imo. Open question is will arctic amplification contribute to more -AO that might later benefit us?

The delmarva and even points S have done fine, more than fine, during recent winters with the nina base state. Some winters even beat climo down that way. However, the further NW one goes, the worse winters have performed relative to local climos (save for the higher elevs). My winters here have been alright except for 22-23, but still fell short of my 20-22” local climo. Last year I got close. And when you get up to a place like State College, PA, they’ve done dramatically bad relative to their climo. What used to be 50” easily, they’re barely scratching their way to 20”. Like bad. Really bad. I’m just glad I don’t live there now, whereas I used to be envious that they were getting so much snow relative to the DMV.