Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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30/27 currently, mostly clear but not that dry
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Many of us have become extremely attuned to the possibility of a rug like so many before, that if an ens run loses an inch from 10 days out, they go off the cliff like lemmings
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Yeah, I’m def gonna read their AFD to get a feel for what they’re thinking. It’s also sunday, not like its during a rush hour commute.
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Wow, that’s bullish. I don’t know if I would have issued a WWA
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At least this will be more than I got this morning
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Lean on ensembles after D5 folks…
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Agree with this map, but a little worried about temps just above the sfc. Prob forecasts give mby 40% chance of reaching 1”
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New map
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love how the ens mean hooks the 1.5+ back into the DMV. Could be another potential overperformer
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Yeah, details are up in the air, but both show a ss wave coming up into cold air nearby. That’s something we haven’t seen much of in these parts around here lately.
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Yep, I’d lean more on the mesos and even radar as its more of a nowcast situation
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Gfs ice storm and euro slider, lets split the difference
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Same
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12z gfs is less out here but given low qpf to begin with, its mainly noise. Temps may be cold enough to maintain decent ratios west of the beltway though
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Hoping I get 1.5”+ tomorrow
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Similar amounts here judging from the pic, some whitening in the shortest grass spots.
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Nailed it. Temps have not been an issue, it’s just moisture or lack there of. Hopefully that changes in the next 2-3 weeks.
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I noticed nam 3k tries to paste a couple inches out here this way. Ashburn, about 4 miles east of 15
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Acceptable. I do that.
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Euro weeklies trended much better for us in feb even! It wants to keep the good pattern going through feb until losing it around 2/23
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Back to graupel, but temp is 33 so its sticking better
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Yeah I was concerned about pac energy breaking apart the +pna and torching canada, but recent ens runs stop short of doing that and still maintain western ridging. Canada will warm up yes, but we may stay NN/BN in the east and during this window that’s all we need.
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Great shot!
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I think we can say this overperformed for the n/w suburbs
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Spoke too soon. Snowing again. May get another 0.1” to push my season total up to 3”
