Terpeast

Looks like the Euro is favoring this scenario by driving the GOA low and torching Canada. But GEFS disagrees a bit, it stops short of doing what the euro did and instead retrogrades the trough towards the aleutians.

GOA low might break through and torch the whole North America. We’ll likely hold onto the cold the longest, and I hope its only temporary as mjo tries to get into 8 and weeklies pop another -ao in early feb. But once canada torches, it’ll take a long time for us to get cold again. edit: euro does this, but gefs (12z) doesn’t quite punch the goa low through

Right now it looks like that window closes Jan 30, so we better score by then.

Light event. onto the next one you’ve got this. Kinda hard to do php with a hungry baby demanding more milk

I’ll let stormtracker take over the rest

Feels like a race between cold and precip at 150

Gulf moisture coming into TVA, boundary further north. We may have temp issues for jan 22

Vort consolidating over MT at 120. Less cold press over us. Again too early

Energy coming down from sw canada at 108, stronger than previous runs. Too early to tell

I’ll do it for the next 20 min then I have to pass on the baton. Nothing noteworthy up to Jan 20 yet.

Based on precip shields, I think gfs and aigfs are converging closer to each other. Whether it’s correct or not, idk. We’ll get better clues at 00z when new upper air data is ingested.

Looks like EPS trended the boundary more south. Good for now, but don't want too much suppression (still unlikely)

yeah, colder than 6z

If the precip max is south of is, we have higher probs of being on the snow side.

With the way models are looking, I think someone somewhere is going to get a really severe ice storm.

Yeah, its like we have three different camps instead of the usual two

The non-AI GFS isn’t actually that far off from the AIGFS at 06z. I don’t really trust AI precip fields as they’re not typically trained for those, but its actually not too far off from the op.

Wow, I didn't know that. From his writing I assumed he was in college or just past that. @bncho You've got a bright future, kid. Keep it up, whatever you're doing.

gfs and euro still worlds apart for Sunday. We need those recon flights yesterday haha

Fringed

No there isn’t. I was looking at 12z

Some maps I look at are for commercial use and can’t share publicly

El nino during a solar min? Not trying to speak for Chuck…

EPS has a mean of 6-8” for the dmv, at least double that of gefs

Not sure which storm you were talking about specifically, but there was one coastal storm in feb 2023 that dropped 1.3” qpf imby and more in other places. Temps were 37-40. I’ve wondered if we copied and pasted that storm onto the 60s-80s winters, it would have been 13”+ I’ll add that after last winter and this December, I feel a lot better about future winter prospects compared to how I felt through 22-23 and 23-24. Those two winters were just plain ugly temp wise, but we’ve been getting colder temps so that hasn’t been the issue as much as dryness and the lack of STJ moisture.