Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Happy anniversary!
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25 for the low
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If we’re going to maintain a -WPO, we’ll need the -NAO/-WPO ridge bridge to connect to push the TPV south into Canada making it easier to get a trough in the east.
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As in one strong cutter dumping cold air behind it towards us and suddenly we’re tracking a follow up wave. Could really happen anytime, but I have that pegged in week 2/3 in Jan. Could be sooner.
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That’s how we roll!
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I think the totals submitted in the contest thread are mostly too optimistic. I stayed below climo, but to even hit my own predictions we need a couple of hits in Jan or Feb.
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They correctly picked up hints of a colder pattern before the real cold came first half of Dec. Same thing happened last Jan. While I take weeklies with a grain (heap) of salt, they may be onto something here. An extreme -PNA doesn’t usually last, it’ll revert to at least neutral if not positive.
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I know the mood is in the gutter and the pattern is literally shit with little or no signs of recovering, but weak nina winters tend to be very volatile and I would not at all be surprised to see the cold east making a big comeback mid Jan through early Feb.
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Picked up 0.39”
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Followed by “we’re so back” posts mid/late Jan. Wouldn’t be surprised lol
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Not sure why. I haven’t explored it deeply enough to find the reason. Maybe papers have been written on this already, but most are focused on El Ninos rather than La Ninas.
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We actually don’t want to root for a quick fade on the nina, the last several -enso winters that went neutral by Jan basically ended early. Those that maintained nina into Jan gave us wintry periods into Feb (yes despite the canonical Feb torch).
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Clearly the goal posts are still very wide, and until the block establishes itself there will be a lot of uncertainty in our sensible weather outcomes. 6z takes us to the promised land while 12z shows us a poor case scenario. What’s most likely to happen is something in the middle, cool dreary CAD with maybe a mixed event with more snow to the north of this sub (and even this is low confidence).
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Good trends on ensembles. We may have something trackable here, which is sooner than I thought. Hopefully it is that kind of winter this year.
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Despite the yellows over us, this isn't exactly a warm look. Anticyclonic ridge out west where we want it, and broad cyclonic trough over midwest/east/NE. Trough NW of Hawaii with -EPO/-WPO and hint of GL blocking, with continued Scand ridging. Second half of Jan could be fun.
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Fell short of the forecasted high of 51, only made it to 48.
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Yep, h5 pattern seems to be trying for some light to moderate events for MA-NE. Maybe a 96-like big dog can happen, but extremely unlikely.
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After a low of 13.5, temp is 41 which feels very comfortable compared to yesterday.
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Torch moved to boxing day. That i am fine with. Just keep xmas eve and day cooler
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I don't think so. Today: 2 weeks from now: Still on our side of the globe and not too far from a widespread cold snap that could extend at least a couple of weeks down this way in January. Yes, it's one ensemble run, but the source/placement of cold air hasn't really changed all that much from run to run.
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Yep I see WH forcing in the hovmoller's forecasts, of which GFS is performing well lately. It's trying to go into phases 1 and 2, with a bit of ensemble support.
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Quick check on the ensembles today looks like a solid -pna pattern for at least the next two weeks with no credible snow threats for the MA. Perhaps some cold shots over the NE and MA. But we’re gonna have to wait this out a bit before the scand ridge retros into a GL block around new years.
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26 for the high. Legit cold
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I’m glad the models are fading the warmth around the holidays, but as long as the PNA is negative its an unfavorable setup for snow in the MA. Maybe we can sneak in a wintry mix event.
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Low of 16.7
