Terpeast

NAO probably won’t save us with a pac like that. But if we get something (like a strat warming or -AO) to buckle that pac jet and allow cold air to get down here, we could time it with a STJ wave and that’s how we score big.

Yeah. With how east based this is, i think it will try to default to this pattern. Maybe the strat warming will somehow shake this up and give us something better

A bit west would have more ridging into AK which would help us with cold air

This is what I mean when I say goa low butting up against the west coast and zonal flow across the east. I think winter will look something like this

That stupid tie feels worse than any other losses

That's the best case scenario. The worst case? well... I'll be in Quebec during the holidays. Even if it torches in the east, it'll still be cold enough there for snow.

If we're getting a minor warming soon, the PV will probably restrengthen for December and we'll torch. But after that, we may get another warming in time for some blocking in Jan/Feb. That would be our window if it pans out.

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/2112536814758121610?s=46 warmest subsurface in east pacific is up to 92 F where its 12c above normal. Crazy

So would I for blizzards. But from their message, I wonder why they didn’t include flood warnings. I would think that flood warnings would be a top case for that kind of wording.

Low of 34 again, with some patchy frost

Smells like 22-23, which is odd because it was a La Nina with a strong -PDO, and the tropical forcing was totally different.

I know you asked Chuck, but my answer would be that the marine heat wave off Japan either has to dissipate or migrate east to just off the western North America coast. Problem is, the marine heat wave runs deep about 100-200m not just at the surface, so its harder to mix that out.

I think you’ve just about summed it up right there… saving me half of the effort. All the super nino analogs are only partial matches, and we’ve never had it this east based. If I had to guess what would happen in the atmosphere this winter, the N Pac low would be right up against the western canada coast, and the southern trough would be pulled west, making it one longwave trough rather than two separate troughs. Not saying we’ll get a SE ridge, we’ll still have a screaming STJ but embedded within a zonal flow east of the rockies, which would also bring us milder temps on the mean. Still an elevated chance for a big one compared to all winters, but not compared to other favorable ninos. If I were a betting man, I’d pass on the big one this year. As far as temps go, thinking 4-6 AN DJF, and BN snow. Way above AN precip though mostly rain. Maybe a surprise march snow.

My low of 34 checks out

If I do a winter outlook this year, I don’t think you guys will like it. Still want me to do one?

While I think Webb was cherry picking those 2 dates, I’m in the camp where we will see at least one +10 month for a good swath of this country/continent east of the rockies. For selfish reasons of course, I’m rooting for that month to be December, because that makes it more likely we will see a more temperate month relative to climo in either Jan or Feb, or perhaps both.

Personally I wouldn’t take that drive. Save it for later.

91 imby

December 23. That’s when I’ll be out of town, so we know when to book that first snow

Euro and AI Euro ensembles are switching to -NAO around Oct 22, fwiw, after +NAO for several weeks

I wouldn’t read too much into this event since it had tropical origins, but either way I’m glad we’re getting more rains and that the heaviest was along the piedmont and mountains. I wouldn’t be surprised to see qpf fields like this throughout the winter. Could be a big year for the ski resorts, and mostly rain for the lowlands outside of (maybe) a well timed storm with cold air.

Surprised to see 4.53” final total when I woke up, by far the biggest event since I got my ambient

3.37”

That last cell pushed me over the 3” mark

2.78”, becoming more drizzly and showery