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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    What a fabulous day today, wish we had more days like this
  2. Terpeast
    Low of 49
  3. Terpeast
    2.5” event total in Ashburn, that was good. Feels like fall, finally
  4. Terpeast
    2.33” total yesterday and today, closing in on 4” MTD. And it was supposed to be a dry month according to the models
  5. Terpeast
    Haha i actually use TT most of the time it’s most mobile friendly. I like pivotal for desktop analysis but its not as mobile friendly
  6. Terpeast
    I don’t even check the surface for cfs maps, just 500mb and draw my own conclusions
  7. Terpeast
    In a super nino year, if I could get one big dog that beats my PR of 30”, the rest of the winter can be in the 60s for all I care.
  8. Terpeast
    1.08” yesterday and 0.77” today
  9. Terpeast
    Thats also my guess. Weaker goa/aleutian low, and I also wonder if it will be further west allowing for more -epo. But who really knows. I would expect the unexpected.
  10. Terpeast
    If PDO stays negative there are going to be a lot of papers about how PDO and ENSO modulate each other in a warming climate. But if we look at the WCS chart, the PDO was much more negative at this time than it is now. Last year it was around -1.8 and today about -0.7 give or take.
  11. Terpeast
    I take it to mean that 97-98 and 82-83 are your best analogs? I'd love to add 65-66 because of the PDO state, but it was from a long time ago...
  12. Terpeast
    Keep coming here more often.
  13. Terpeast
    Coin flip tbh. Might as well!
  14. Terpeast
    2 things can be true. A winter could be warm and rainy, and it could also have a blizzard.
  15. Terpeast
    Look forward to seeing your project when it’s done! if you’re willing to share.
  16. Terpeast
    Yeah it’s been rising quite a bit. Neutral-ish now
  17. Terpeast
    Pretty 97-98 like, only better. Models seem to be thinking heavy mountain snow, some snow/mix/rain events for the piedmont and mainly rain east.
  18. Terpeast
    Yeah that looks really good, but we’ve seen a lot of great looks for Feb only for them to slip away at the last minute. Let’s see if this one holds given the strength of the nina and subsidence over the MC.
  19. Terpeast
    I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.
  20. Terpeast
    Yeah not great, but still a higher than normal chance for the big one
  21. Terpeast
    East. Might back west into central/basin wide before it dissipates
  22. Terpeast
    For the first time in months, I was able to cut the grass without melting. But still a bit sticky
  23. Terpeast
    NMME DJF outlook from the new england thread (no surprises):
  24. Terpeast
    Nicely done fact checking Ji’s AI, good catch. But I don’t think it changes the odds of a boom or bust, which is basically a coin flip at this point the boom/mid/bust split is 19/16/16
  25. Terpeast
    So basically equal chances of boom, bust, or mid
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