Terpeast

12z eps / 18z gefs both have a retrograding +pna that becomes -epo. Did this happen a lot in 2013-14, or in more recent la nina winters before 2022? I wasn’t around much except for 2016

Classic +PNA on gefs starting jan 12-13. Pattern supports the OP

Lets see if there’s gefs support for jan 15th

Looks decent to me, and that things haven’t really trended worse at all.

And remember, it only takes one!

For fun, if anyone hasn’t cliff dived yet - 12z euro tries something mid month. Tilt that vort a bit more negative and boom. has ensemble support, too

Haha that’s funny about them asking if you needed help. Did you stay in one place the whole time, or did you move to wherever the band was setting up for the day? I’d love to do this when my second kid is old enough to understand what snow is and how to have fun with it.

Gefs showing a signal on Jan 11-12 for a post-cutter wave that could work for us. Spacing needs some work though

Congrats!

I apologize if I came off as model bashing in the general sense, that wasn't my intention and I can see that my statement was a bit unfair. We've seen incredible advances in modeling both physical and AI, and seeing 0.6-0.8 correlations in 500mb anomalies from 10+ days out is an incredible feat. I only meant that their performance have collectively taken a hit lately in the 11-15 day range especially in the past 5-6 months. In the grand scheme of things, on a global scale, they still perform better than 10+ years ago. But regionally, they have been struggling with the trough/ridge placements such that we're seeing wild swings in our forecasted sensible weather in our back yards. Again, sorry about that.

Wow. 11-15 day model forecasts have been terrible this fall/winter. Terrible.

That would shorten the torch to just 5 days instead of 7-10+ like previous runs were showing.

More than that.

Maybe I wouldn’t say “the best” but it did very well. Top 3

KIAD had 26.6” in 18-19, pretty solid winter

Vaguely recall PSU mentioned going skiing somewhere around this time or something

Looking ahead to the second half of the month - with a map like this after the ~5 day torch in the near-medium term, Jan might finish a couple degrees AN. But if those last two weeks come to fruition like this, we could have some interesting events to track without the suppression risks. Not the time to bail on this winter just yet.

Yes, the pattern is very progressive and volatile. Anything could happen. Before, we’ve seen these 60 degree days turn into snowfalls the next day or two. This could happen here.

EPS shows NN temps (at least at 850mb) starting Jan 11 onwards. As a reminder, our Jan climo 850s are at -3 to -4, so it can still snow (or mix) if 850s are slightly AN. GEFS/GEPS is warmer and more borderline, and delays the cold by a day or two. We want to root for Euro to be right.

As would I

Don’t encourage him…

New 12z gefs trending for more NS interaction on the 4th. New run Old 12z run yesterday

12/5: 1.5” 12/14: 1.0” 1/1: 0.2” Total: 2.7”

Woke up to a surprise dusting! Yes i slept through it not expecting anything (stayed up late watching stranger things). been a long time to see a surprise snow.

Happy new year!