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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    If it were up to me, tomorrow midday after 12z runs come in would probably be a good time to issue watches (if they’re still showing what they are now). One thing going for NWS is that this storm doesn’t happen during commute, at least until it’s over New England
  2. Terpeast
    Gefs basically a hold at 72, looks good
  3. Terpeast
    My sister is flying in the next day to visit me and my kids. So…
  4. Terpeast
    Gefs 66 neg tilt, sfc looks the same, ass hair west
  5. Terpeast
    Gefs to 60, ss vort sharper
  6. Terpeast
    0z gefs NS vort separates a bit by backing off, while southern vort amps a bit. Let’s see
  7. Terpeast
    I don’t envy their jobs right now that’s for sure
  8. Terpeast
    Not sure how others are seeing a tick east. Noise level changes in SLP position and precip shield (the extent, not amounts) has actually expanded west i’m more worried about bigger changes at h5 before storm formation
  9. Terpeast
    Definitely a different path to the promised land. It almost looked like it was gonna miss the phase and cave spectacularly, but it still somehow spun up a more miller A like coastal (or miller a/b hybrid)
  10. Terpeast
    Just need a better phase. It’s close
  11. Terpeast
    As you probably know, hrrr isn’t comparable with the globals because it isn’t a global model. But same goes for the nam, which we do pbp on anyway
  12. Terpeast
    Seems euro made a bigger move west than the gfs moved east. Maybe they meet in the middle and give us 6-10”. That would be nice
  13. Terpeast
    More neg tilt at h5 with precip axis further west from 12z
  14. Terpeast
    Now we just need it to deepen at our latitude
  15. Terpeast
    18z euro trying to phase at 45
  16. Terpeast
    We’re counting on you!
  17. Terpeast
    That would get us to climo for the season
  18. Terpeast
    Eh, more of a hold. Clustering in the same area mostly
  19. Terpeast
    I was starting to wonder if that dual low was the beginning of a cave to other guidance with the low further east. 12z didn’t have this, it was all in on a tucked low. Now we see it having one foot on other guidance, and other foot on what it showed for 12z. I think it rides the fence between these two camps for 1-2 more runs, then falls to the main camp along with other guidance.
  20. Terpeast
    I have a feeling the gfs will hold onto the big storm until tomorrow 12z or even later, then do the most spectacular cave we have ever seen. By that time, the damage will have been done.
  21. Terpeast
    Thats a legit ULL, we’ve gotten something like this before when getting missed by the coastal itself
  22. Terpeast
    Looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z at least to get better consensus. Yet another can-kick. Unless you toss the gfs AND its ensembles, then maybe we’re getting closer to the right idea. Not sure I agree with the trough going neg tilt so fast given how the progressive flow has been.
  23. Terpeast
    (not that I'm buying the GFS, just surprised that it doubled down and went west instead of shifting east like the other models)
  24. Terpeast
  25. Terpeast
    Great news
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