Terpeast

91 at 9:30 am, running 2.5 degrees ahead of yesterday. Legit shot at 100 today, probably the better chance than tomorrow.

Morning low of 75, which is really warm for mby

Yep I was thinking the same after all that rain in May thru early June. This humidity is no joke.

Last year was hot, but iirc dews were lower, upper 60s low 70s. This time it felt like a whole new level.

Feels like the 96 at IAD doesn’t do justice on how hot it was here. Dews were really high. 75-79 in most obs west of the airport.

So far 99 for the high, peak HI of 119! Currently 98.8/76.3 (114.6 HI)

97.5 for the high, max HI 115

94/105, heat advisory verified

92/75 at noon, HI 104

90 at noon

Mine is 91 for the high, and I’m at 88 at 11 am

Lost power for an hour. Rain rate topped 3”/hr at one point. Winds were gnarly. Probably verified at low-end severe (60mph). Only 0.6” total, short but intense.

This isn’t the first time. These neutral teases aren’t going to cut it. We need it to break through to sustained +1 at least

I second this.

With all the rain we’ve been getting, the humidity in this heat wave is gonna be stifling. Yesterday the high on my pws was 90, but the HI was 104!

Interesting that both pac and atl have similar spatial patterns

Another 1” on top of 0.9” for a total of 1.9” this weekend. 2.5” MTD

Last night saved me from a total bust. 0.9”

Hoping I get another chance for significant rainfall today with the expanded flood watch

Only 0.05” imby

This wasn't about tropical cyclones...

No reason to think next winter will be much different than the last winter or the last several. Enso may not be a big player this year, so I’d lean more on the pdo and polar domain. Qbo going negative, but solar may have already maxed. No idea yet.

One of the things we’re working on with AI models is using hindcast climatology where the 10-15+ day cold bias is much less or no longer there. This might help solve the problem of models being too cold in their medium range forecasts. It’ll also be interesting to see if that also solves the bias of weaker upper level wind flow predictions vs reality.

If you’re talking about the biggest KU storms, I tend to agree. But there have been instances in recent winters where sub-KU storms have actually trended south in the last 24-72 hours. In the 2023-24 winter, my subforum (at least the central part) got 4-6” flush hits twice in the same week that trended to us the last minute after being modeled to go through PA/NY. This past winter, we’ve had a few happen the same way. Including one in late Feb that missed us and hit SE VA with a foot of snow, leaving us high and dry. So I guess it can cut both ways.

0.18” here this morning. May got me 8.77” for the month!