Terpeast

0.14” so far, radar looks uniform

AI gfs agrees on miller b feb 23-24, just a tad north. Something to watch for any favorable trends (if any) in the coming week.

Yea I can def point to better examples for down here than this one today. Not gonna lose sleep over it though - we had decent cold air in dec and jan, that wasn’t the problem, getting an active STJ is/has been.

For your area and north of 70 for sure, but I don’t think even my area would have even been in play with 2-3f cooler temps

Rain at 45. Not even close to “33 and rain”

Earned the right to be snarky for sure, just pointing out that euro ai isn’t gonna be easy to verify

True, I wouldn’t take my chances either

Based on 500mb vort, euro ai is a thread the needle timing play for next weekend. Will have to wait to see more support from other models by Wednesday

Doesnt the spill start more downstream than HP? Thought it was at the C&O canal

Not that it means anything, but I’m holding at 44. Like WxUSAF said I need that free car wash. Bring that half inch qpf on.

Looking at verification, I’d say cansips did well everywhere except enso and tropical atl regions.

For now, I don’t see anything in the LR to get excited about. If winter is over, looking back on the last 4 seasons, only 22-23 was a true dead ratter. In each of the last 3 consecutive seasons, I have had at least 8” of snow depth. Last two winters maintained around 3 weeks of snow cover, which is not half bad considering the persistent -enso/-pdo base state. Let’s see what the next el nino has in store for us. I suspect it will be a milder winter with no prolonged snow cover, but perhaps we could get more of an active STJ and all we need is a well timed wave with some cold air. Not much to ask considering NC got theirs two winters in a row.

WCS agrees with you. Get a couple of WWBs that don’t stall and a moderate el nino with RONI at least +0.8 and we can break the -PDO that’s been plagueing us for years.

Hopefully someday I take my kids there and rent a snowmobile for a snowcation.

Nam 3k thermals did well on Jan 25.

Roughly an inch of slush. I take

If we remember the seasonals’ DJF precip anomaly forecast, it was bone dry and I was thinking “no STJ this winter then?” We’re lucky to get 8-11” frozen from a STJ wave that drove into the OHV.

Unfor for me and my dc metro brethen I think you may be right. Still a chance for a last second overperforming surprise

Can’t say I’m surprised. Feb-Mar usually torches during a Nina, with a few exceptions. In fact this was baked into my winter outlook.

It hasn't snowed at all in March since I moved back here in 2022. Ok maybe some snow TV but no accums at all.

(Source: CWG WaPo) This winter deserves high marks just for this reason alone. I know I know, frustrating tracking season and tons of teeth gnashing over near misses… but the snow/ice cover and duration of cold is impressive. With how much I have on the ground now, still 4-5”, I’m making a run for 21 days

(Source: CWG WaPo) This winter deserves high marks just for this reason alone. I know I know, frustrating tracking season and tons of teeth gnashing over near misses… but the snow/ice cover and duration of cold is impressive.

19” jack at Atlantic beach. It could have been us. Glass half full take - if it can happen down there, we still have our chances. Maybe not this season, but next year during an el nino we might get a hit.

For now I’m considering 6z euro a “blip” and given thermals, the high snow accums may be a mirage. But there’s still time. We’re starting to enter the inevitable model reshuffling period (D3-5) where things can really change. Maybe for once the reshuffle goes in our favor?

When you have Detroit and Buffalo in the mid 30s, we know we are in real trouble down here. Again, interior paste-bomb upside doesn't change.