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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
  2. Terpeast
    Starting to fall, 17/-6
  3. Terpeast
    Holding at 19/-6 in Ashburn
  4. Terpeast
    That is very very good news… not from a “potentially snowier” weenie perspective, but in terms of perhaps less impacts/power outages/accidents.
  5. Terpeast
    Mix line on 18z nam most similar to 12z yesterday at the same hour (06z Sun). That run doesn’t flip DC until 14z
  6. Terpeast
    Nowcast comparison for 19z: Decent agreement, good initialization for HRRR
  7. Terpeast
    Looks colder than 12z nam for the same times
  8. Terpeast
    Looks like 5-7” thump for dc metro
  9. Terpeast
    16.9/-6
  10. Terpeast
    Comparing gfs forecast for 18z today with current radar Seems faster? Sleet line a bit south
  11. Terpeast
    There’s that GL low. AI is “learning” about those
  12. Terpeast
    I think its a little bit of both. Models touched on the right idea over 10 days ago when they wanted to cut the storm west of us. Gfs had that, just too extreme with 80” snowfall in PA. That’s characteristic of ninas. But then they went way south with all that cold. We still have the cold, but models returned to their original idea.
  13. Terpeast
    It would have been a rainstorm if our temps were even in the climo range
  14. Terpeast
    Split the difference since you’re further north/NE. 5-9” perhaps
  15. Terpeast
    Sticking with the middle of the road forecast I made earlier, not panicking over the bad CAM runs. 4-8” mix/ice DC metro, 6-10” sleet fest with some zr NW
  16. Terpeast
    Yeah I thought a lot more zr, but no, just drier with precip max across PA. So far it’s an outlier
  17. Terpeast
    Nowcast precip shield more expansive than 3k nam forecast for 14-15z, with the ice line a tick further south than modeled. But just a little bit
  18. Terpeast
    Welcome to meteorology!
  19. Terpeast
    We’ve busted low recently because the temps had been too warm at the surface - is the main reason. But that’s not the case now.
  20. Terpeast
    8/-8 looks like euro/gfs are in agreement… and at odds with nam/rrfs
  21. Terpeast
    Idk, maybe something to do with gridding on its own data
  22. Terpeast
    Just fell under 20. Now 19.8
  23. Terpeast
    Its complex, but the simple answer is that the storm is phasing much farther west than ideal for an all snow event with no temp issues. It’s still cold though.
  24. Terpeast
    Not me. I didn’t really believe the suppressed scenario and kept saying it would come north. And it did… more than I thought.
  25. Terpeast
    22 now. This cold means business
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