Terpeast

Looks like a big change/flip in the long range over the last 24 hours. One run does not make a trend, but 3 00z/12z runs in a row just did a resounding repudiation of the freezing february pattern. Interestingly, AI ensembles led the way on this. We may be able to thaw this glacier out by presidents day weekend, or if its not as warm as progged, weekend after. Unfortunately we may have lost big snow chances for the next 2 weeks, and by the time it gets cold again with the SSW effect and weak MJO 3, we’d be running out of time by that point. Not saying it won’t snow then, but more likely to be smaller to moderate events.

No prob. I like the effort you're putting into comparing model forecasts, though.

Did you check the ensembles for that time period? We don't really go by op models beyond day 5-7 or so

I think the gfs is on its own for a northern band, there is cold press on the other models that will keep it central or south. Upside is what the NAM is showing, not surprisingly. Still a C-2” event, but whatever falls will stick immediately and be a more impactful event than if there was just bare grass on the ground.

Pattern still looks good. We’re not shut out, albeit a few days of a break (which we need haha)

That explains a lot!

IAD got 1.59” qpf with temps at high of 40 low 33, trace of snow. Too late in the season, but pull it up 1 month earlier it would have been a 16” snowstorm more or less.

When I went to take the trash out, I usually walk down a small hill to the bin behind the house. This time I slid down the hill on my feet. What a trip!

16 years between 1987 and 2003, yikes! Thank goodness we had 1995-96.

-PDO relatively pedestrian and close to neutral

Halfway through this winter and a 4th night in a row in the single digits with snowbanks as high as 5-6 feet, I am actually the most optimistic in a long time about the future of our winters. This winter and last winter, we have had a lot of cold and we’ve seen snowstorms to the south of us, and these aren’t winters that were supposed to be favorable going in. I know we’re jealous of Charlotte right now, but hear me out. Growing up here, I’ve seen plenty of misses to the south and bitter cold like this. I’ve seen both stretches of frustrating winters and blizzard bonanzas. We’re also in the middle of a long term drought. None of this is new. It’s as familiar as when I was in grade school. When (not if) the drought breaks and we get another winter where favorable patterns set in, we will get hit again… and hard. I guarantee it.

Makes me think we went through a bad streak of very warm winters, and now we’re just getting back to normal (albeit a couple degrees warmer than the old normal)

And that’s not a suppressive look like we have now. Still a pna ridge but not so tall that it pushes storms so far south

Look at raleigh/durham though

Yep, both ai and nwp euro ens show brief connection then right back to cold. We don’t even go AN that much on the “warmest” day, and 11-15 day forecasts have still been biased too warm

Still a chance. Euro AIFS ticked north a bit. Probably noise, but we’re not out of that one yet

For now that’s not supported by the aifs ensembles, and euro has a well known bias of dumping too much energy west. Least likely scenario

Euro ai takes multiple shots at us. At least one will hit, imho

Both cmc and euro want to bring a clipper next friday, showing precip here on the southern fringes

It would be, and probably the worst case scenario in terms of impacts. With 2” liquid already frozen on the ground, a rainer would induce melting and flooding then a massize refreeze when cold rushes back in.

Looks like next week's event is a potential C-2" event for DC metro and south. As I said before, it's a minor event with minimal upside. Feb 10-15 window is the bigger one to watch, but starting to worry about too much ridging ahead of it. Hopefully the strong block should keep it south/wintry for us.

Low of 4

Drove around today and the snow banks and piles make it look like we just got 20 inches. The snowpack will harden and stick around for the rest of the winter. I’m certainly not gonna complain about this winter.

Verification scores coming in for ai-gfs and its ensembles, ai is doing better than their dynamic counterparts. But that’s not saying much. I’d say its middle of the pack on par with op euro and geps, with ai euro leading the pack.

Agreed. Also if this weekend’s coastal ends up weaker than currently forecasted, way end up with less confluence to the NE and allow next week’s minor event to come back up north. Again, minor is the operational word. Upside was never very high with that one. The Feb 10-15 window is another to keep an eye on.