Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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mod snow 129
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Lgt snow starts hr 123 for DC metro
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PV is more NW instead of previous run pressing further SE
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N/S and S/S timing more aligned, making a phase more likely. Still early.
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Was going to say the same thing.
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hr 87, looks like the s/w out west has more room to dig. We'll see. Early
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Tbf I look at 4-6 past runs to glean any meaningful trends. But if it’s jumpy, it doesn’t mean much it anything.
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I've been loving these 4-6" storms the past two winters, but I keep fantasizing about getting a big dump of 17", 30", or whatever big number.
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And there's a difference between getting a foot in your backyard while Boston gets 3 ft, and getting a foot and watching Raleigh getting 3 ft.
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I agree with you, Chuck. I do some of this for a living now, and when others were saying "this is the most +PNA period" I thought something wasn't right. When tracking multiple snow events for mby, I didn't see a classic +PNA much of the time. If anything, it was mostly neutral with an AK ridge with some troughing undercutting it out west.
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Alright going to bed, tomorrow will be a very interesting day of tracking and trend watching.
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Delmarva and NJ get pummeled
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Looks more like 12z than 18z
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Euro not running yet
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Definitely different at h5 over the lakes. Might help bring the trajectory north
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I’ll pull an all nighter when we get that nighttime snowstorm. Think strategically, save your energy.
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Who is waiting up for the euro/eps? Not me, I need sleep
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To be clear, I’m not saying jump ship NOW… I’m saying that the trends aren’t great and I want to see what things look like by Saturday, which is when I think we’ll have a better idea what’s going to happen.
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We'll see how things trend tomorrow. But if by saturday we don't see any improvements, it may be time to jump ship on that one.
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Gefs hinting at a more tucked solution. It starts swinging further south, but actually ends up a tick closer to the coast as it gains latitude
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This thread got quiet real fast. Unhappy hour GFS
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Big jump west by the AI. Hopefully a sign of things to come
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Nice signal. Trajectory on that should be NE instead of E. Maybe ENE, which is just enough to get DC in the game. Still lots of time.
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I dunno, I don't get the hand wringing over the storm being too far SE. There have been multiple times this winter where a storm was modeled to miss us to the S or E a week out, only to have it slowly creep back NW. No, not far north enough to hit northern MD or west enough to put the jack over clskinsfan... but nevertheless a slight creep NW to get DC metro in the game. If this were 3-4 days away and the storm was still showing a miss to the SE, I'd be worried.
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This is exactly how I remember the 80s winters, and this winter was just like them. No major extended torches, 1-2 major cold outbreaks, and a couple of sig snowstorms of 5-8" with a bunch of little stat padders in between. Some rainers in between. Feels... normal.
