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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Interesting take. That may be what it takes to dissipate these marine heat waves. Hopefully we can do that without too much collateral damage.
  2. Terpeast
    Looks like 3-4" area wide north of 50/66
  3. Terpeast
    Weird, not sure. Some overlapping going on there..
  4. Terpeast
    Probably automated
  5. Terpeast
    They’ll probably replace it with a new headline. Not sure why they hoisted a special weather statement in the first place, especially seeing that they hoisted a WSW soon after
  6. Terpeast
    Glad to see the euro hold instead of trending north. Sticking with 2-4” for dc/balt with a little more upside
  7. Terpeast
    Hopefully we may not need to. Ensembles on all models have been zeroing in on our sub and looking more stable.
  8. Terpeast
    Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this
  9. Terpeast
    Interesting tweet, and digging deeper into the upper level maps, I agree. This gets us more upside in terms of qpf, but the DC metro is dangerously close to missing the best banding with this north trend. I don't think we go 4/4 on last minute south trend this time.
  10. Terpeast
    Precip field actually shifted north on the GFS too. It's just farther south than other models like NAM and ICON. I'm not buying the 4-6" across northern neck and SoMD.
  11. Terpeast
    First call: South of 66: 1-2” locally 3” Between 66 and 70: 2-4” North of 70: 4-7” Mountains: 5-10” Subject to change, hopefully with a last minute south trend. (But it COULD shift north)
  12. Terpeast
    Is this where we say “uh oh” and root for a 4th last minute south trend? this is the ICON thread after all…
  13. Terpeast
    Good run, but careful not to get any further amped else we'll either have temp issues or the best banding goes north of DC
  14. Terpeast
    0.5" qpf from harrisonburg through winchester through Loudoun and MoCo
  15. Terpeast
    850mb low just south of us, precip almost ending in DMV. Not longer duration, but maybe a heavier thump
  16. Terpeast
    Heavier precip at 36, could be a longer duration than previous run Now I see an 850mb low
  17. Terpeast
    SLP further back and 2mb stronger at 33 Big difference at 500mb. Previous run was flat and diffuse, now it's a bit more amped and further west
  18. Terpeast
    30-35% chance for 4” or more in dc/balt. I’d take those odds
  19. Terpeast
    Looks on par with Jan 19 to me, if memory serves correctly. If this verifies or trends any bit wetter, we have a low end warning event. LWX may not go that far because its a saturday
  20. Terpeast
    So far models are trending for the better. 36-42 hours out
  21. Terpeast
    With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong (again, it means nothing as far as verification)
  22. Terpeast
    Ukie qpf actually looks about in line with the other models
  23. Terpeast
    Post it for everyone to see...
  24. Terpeast
    LWX has our low end being 1" and high end 5" in the dc/balt metros
  25. Terpeast
    Looks south of what it was before, unless I got my wires crossed up with another model. Still think forum wide is good for 2-4" and northern tier get better ratios
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