the 12k NAM was definitely overdone, and I don't see much change on the 3k NAM from previous run yet.
looks like 5-6" when lopping off the initial inch before dark for DC metro including IAD. This is 10 to 1
The HRRR and temp issues is why I went conservative! Now there is a chance that even my forecast is too bullish. Hopefully most precip happens after 4 pm and the heaviest comes overnight.
As much as I want to say 5-8”, I was too bullish last time so I’m staying conservative this time. Different storm, different scenario though. Better cold air this time except right at the surface, which can be overcome with moderate rates.
That’s just smoothing across all ens members. But they’re converging on a max between dc and ezf. Still time to tick north, but probably not by a whole lot