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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    This generally agrees with the hovmollers diagram DarkSharkWX posted a couple of pages back. I wouldn’t discount weak p1/2 just because the Jma said so
  2. Terpeast
    Here is one reason why I have eyes on PD despite the op gfs showing a rainstorm. Feb 13-14 was supposed to be a cutter and was depicted as such up until earlier this week. And we don’t even have cold air anywhere nearby. I think we will see it evolve in our favor once the models work out the northern stream under a greenland blocking regime.
  3. Terpeast
    If the same happens in a nino, then we can’t simply say it’s a “la nina problem”
  4. Terpeast
    GEFS look good with PD. 850s peak around normal during the event, which is around -3 nw of 95 and -2 for the rest
  5. Terpeast
    For better or worse, it will change. Stick with the ensembles especially at this range
  6. Terpeast
    Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm
  7. Terpeast
    7/8 now then weak 1/2 the rest of the month
  8. Terpeast
    No worries, we’re good
  9. Terpeast
    Like PSU said 2 months ago… not everyone is going to make it.
  10. Terpeast
    If I think that this is going be north of us, do you not want me to say it? Just… be silent? I’m sorry but that’s not how I roll. If I think it, I’m gonna say it. Just be grateful that I’m not going to repeat it every 5 minutes like some others do
  11. Terpeast
    I’m still not counting out the potential around PD. It’s a bit suppressed for us, but less suppressed than it was a few days ago. These things trend north most of the time, even though there’s a limit how far north they can get with a block in place.
  12. Terpeast
    Its trended a bit north the last couple of days, though. Less suppression
  13. Terpeast
    It’s just one run maybe two, and the EPO trend may be incorrectly modeled, but Commodity WG posted this (and I consider them to be credible): https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1756015637673972047?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w Right now I don’t have any confidence in what’s going to happen the rest of this month. None. I’m in wait and see mode now.
  14. Terpeast
    Yeah, this is a PA/NY/SNE event. Let them have it. They need a morale boost
  15. Terpeast
    That it is. Then again, the ns is all over the place with the gfs. Zero confidence in any solution it puts out beyond 180hrs, except that there will be a ss wave deep south
  16. Terpeast
    Didn’t the NAM lead the way in the south trend for both Jan storms? Or did I get my wires crossed up?
  17. Terpeast
    I suspect it’s partly because of smoothing between cool downs and warm ups, but with a dynamic storm that runs south of us we’ll get mostly snow. I don’t have much confidence in these rainstorm depictions with such a strong blocking episode coming up, so I guess that’s why most mets aren’t talking about it unless they have a warm bias or are panicking. we could go a couple degrees warmer across the board except when a vort passes south of us, and we’d still snow even (and especially) in late feb early march
  18. Terpeast
    I don’t think we’ve seen the last of the trends. Still details to be worked out
  19. Terpeast
    If the gfs is correct and other models trend this way, we might have another tracking opportunity sooner than most are expecting. I don’t think any of the models are doing a good job with the ns/ss interactions and just smoothes everything out in the long range. My wag is that there will be an unexpected plot twist in the next 10-14 days. Just hope one breaks in our favor.
  20. Terpeast
    Beeee-youuuuu-teeee-fullll! And looks plenty cold enough judging from that 540 height line
  21. Terpeast
    Same, I'm tired of hearing about the damned MJO. Besides it was in the warm phases when we got that winter week in January. And it was in 8-1-2 in December and it didn't do squat for us. Like I said before, the waiting is the worst part. I get a little antsy too, so can't say I blame them. But DT? Come on
  22. Terpeast
    Sounds jumpy. All ens still look good to me. Blocking, cold air feed, signal of a wave underneath us around Feb 23-24 What has really changed?
  23. Terpeast
    Sure! For now my idea was a dart toss at a La Nina climo map most favorable for snow, lol But if I go through with it, it'll be a family trip with the wife and kid in tow... though I might want to hit the steeper slopes with a fellow skier while they stick with the bunnies
  24. Terpeast
    Thinking of either going to whistler for skiing or visiting my brother in Spokane next winter
  25. Terpeast
    Not checking the panels, but we need the s/w to be closed off and the sfc low to be stronger
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