Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Now this is a case that might work against a short term north trend, because as the block gets established, it'll flex and press everything south. It's still not a great hit for mby, but it's getting close. 50-70 miles isn't much at this lead time.
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That’s fair. We’ll see how much moisture comes out of the gulf for the tuesday wave. I’m willing to bet it will be a little more than the models are currently showing.
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I like it where it is, tbh. We don’t have a block established yet, and when it isn’t there or is just starting, storms almost always come north at the last minute! (Before anyone comes at me with their backyard anecdotes, i’ll say its a different story once the block does establish itself as it did for the Jan 6 storm for example)
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I’m totally fine with the south shift as long as the Tue wave maintains enough strength to give us decent qpf. The danger now is that it weakens so much that it becomes a non event, or an advisory for RIC, then the storm after pushes thermals north of us. It’s still unlikely, but not impossible.
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Just by looking at the SLP maps, I think models are converging into better agreement on the track. Which is out of the rockies west right through TN and then off the coast of Southern VA. It's the QPF/ptype maps that still aren't in agreement. Only until we get into the mesos, will we see better agreement on lifting, thermals, and QPF.
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Had the models not spit out 20" runs a few days ago and instead showed an ice/rain/mix... and then started showing 6" runs today, we'd be ecstatic right now. But we're more like, meh I'll accept it as a consolation prize. This board is wild (and I mean that in a good way).
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Playing follow the leader. And given how much it shifted south (2 days after euro bumped north), I think it will correct back up north a bit stepwise.
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I’d say we’re in a good spot being on the north side of the heaviest precip if we want an all snow event. It’s noteworthy since this run assimilated dropsonde data from the pacific, so it might be the first clue that the most amped and northern solutions (where we mix) might be wrong. It’s just one run, but I like where we’re at.
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Bit south, bit slower. Still early
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Dropsonde data from pacific ingested into 0z gfs, should be interesting
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Yeah, that is nuts. Let’s hope it holds.
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Yeah, I’m really loving this work. The generic hemispheric analogs are out there, but I’ve been breaking them down into specific regions like North America only, and each region comes up with its own set of analogs that have even better correlations with the forecasted pattern.
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I see early march 2003 and feb 2014. But 1989 hasn’t popped up for me today. It might have in previous runs though
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@psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know!
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True, and their “its due” index is about to explode. They have had it worse than us this winter and last winter.
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It’s gonna be a busy and sleep-deprived time!
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In case it isn't clear, let me add to this.
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Euro looks like the classic 3-6"/4-7" overrunning event we used to have regularly in the past. CMC more like 2-4" mix, while GFS is a high-end MECS scenario. Probably will verify somewhere in the middle.
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Low of 31.7, a minimal amount of glaze on the deck furniture and trees
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Block is further south and PNA isn’t sky high positive. Much to like. And 06z euro big shift south for Tuesday
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CMC placement of slp and highs look great. Might be snowier than its ptype would have us believe.
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Canadian starts similar to gfs, but then splits the wave into two and we get some light snow on front end. Second wave more amped
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I pay less attention to thermals beyond 6-7 days. If the first wave works out, it’ll lay down snow cover and help us with thermals
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Another wave nipping at this one’s heels
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Icon was faster, gfs slower, now their timing matches up well based on the 144h panel
