Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Looks like the second slug idea might have legs
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Freezing rain. Seeing small amounts of accretion on the deck. 32
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I agree with this.
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12/24: 0.1” 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.6” 1/11: 1.3” 1/16: 0.5” 1/19: 2.0” 2/8: 0.1” Season total: 11.9”
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Drizzle. 34
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Yeah, I think its gonna be somewhere in the middle, maybe probably a bit less than the middle. Will be interesting to see what the euro shows today.
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Like I said, models seem to be converging on a 2-4/3-5er DC metro with a little more south, less north
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I think a reasonable expectation for DC metro and surrounding burbs is half of gfs output. 2-4” areawide with 5-6” at ezf. I’d always leave the door open for a more expansive shield on the north side though. I would never count that out.
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Looks same as 6z. Mostly noise imho
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Deck starting to get dusted
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Light snow/sleet
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Its way out in fantasy range, but definitely plausible that there will be a storm around that window. The pattern, as depicted, supports it. But don’t get too excited about specific amounts
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33/23 ashburn, cloudy
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3-5” then mix
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Op gfs setting up the block day 4-5 and builds the western ridge at day 9, things might start to get interesting after that.
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They don’t always do this, but I think they did it this time for other reasons we’re probably not interested in.
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Yep, that was the first clue of this going off the rails. I would take these data assimilation exercises seriously.
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Yeah given the trends by all models today, I think this goose is cooked. We might get lucky with a last minute north shift, but 2-4” is probably optimistic. I want to say the gfs is trying to set something up after 156 hr tho
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Ha, 2nd wave brings rain up north of NYC
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First wave trended flatter, second stronger
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Yeah, nope.
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Second wave approaching. Can we hold the thermals?
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Energy at h5 just isn’t digging enough. Maybe the wave after will look different.
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Ding ding…
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Just reading the above posts now. In case my posts (where I try to be encouraging) rubs people NW/NE of Balt the wrong way, I apologize. I hadn't realized how bad things were up there and the fact that you guys haven't had a warning event in 8 years. I wasn't around between 2017 and 2022 so I didn't follow closely, and I didn't know. I hope you get yours sooner than later, and I know you will eventually. Bad luck doesn't run forever.
