Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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I wouldn’t attempt driving in this for sure
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Gefs 18z was nearly identical to 6z. Still windshield wipering a bit.
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We’d need that 1051 high to reinforce cold air as that low gets east, or it’ll be mix to rain for all of us. Still time
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Haha well more like baby icicles off my deck chairs and grill cover. They were so small and “cute” that when I showed them to my 4 year old daughter, she laughed like she saw the funniest thing
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31. Rain. Icicles forming
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6” line bisecting DC w to e. Probably translates to 4” otg
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Probably best to let the CAMS figure out the thermals a bit closer in. We have a 1036 high up top
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Looks like the second slug idea might have legs
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Freezing rain. Seeing small amounts of accretion on the deck. 32
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I agree with this.
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12/24: 0.1” 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.6” 1/11: 1.3” 1/16: 0.5” 1/19: 2.0” 2/8: 0.1” Season total: 11.9”
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Drizzle. 34
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Yeah, I think its gonna be somewhere in the middle, maybe probably a bit less than the middle. Will be interesting to see what the euro shows today.
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Like I said, models seem to be converging on a 2-4/3-5er DC metro with a little more south, less north
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I think a reasonable expectation for DC metro and surrounding burbs is half of gfs output. 2-4” areawide with 5-6” at ezf. I’d always leave the door open for a more expansive shield on the north side though. I would never count that out.
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Looks same as 6z. Mostly noise imho
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Deck starting to get dusted
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Light snow/sleet
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Its way out in fantasy range, but definitely plausible that there will be a storm around that window. The pattern, as depicted, supports it. But don’t get too excited about specific amounts
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33/23 ashburn, cloudy
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3-5” then mix
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Op gfs setting up the block day 4-5 and builds the western ridge at day 9, things might start to get interesting after that.
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They don’t always do this, but I think they did it this time for other reasons we’re probably not interested in.
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Yep, that was the first clue of this going off the rails. I would take these data assimilation exercises seriously.
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Yeah given the trends by all models today, I think this goose is cooked. We might get lucky with a last minute north shift, but 2-4” is probably optimistic. I want to say the gfs is trying to set something up after 156 hr tho
