Terpeast

Dropsonde data from pacific ingested into 0z gfs, should be interesting

Yeah, that is nuts. Let’s hope it holds.

Yeah, I’m really loving this work. The generic hemispheric analogs are out there, but I’ve been breaking them down into specific regions like North America only, and each region comes up with its own set of analogs that have even better correlations with the forecasted pattern.

I see early march 2003 and feb 2014. But 1989 hasn’t popped up for me today. It might have in previous runs though

@psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know!

True, and their “its due” index is about to explode. They have had it worse than us this winter and last winter.

It’s gonna be a busy and sleep-deprived time!

In case it isn't clear, let me add to this.

Euro looks like the classic 3-6"/4-7" overrunning event we used to have regularly in the past. CMC more like 2-4" mix, while GFS is a high-end MECS scenario. Probably will verify somewhere in the middle.

Low of 31.7, a minimal amount of glaze on the deck furniture and trees

Block is further south and PNA isn’t sky high positive. Much to like. And 06z euro big shift south for Tuesday

CMC placement of slp and highs look great. Might be snowier than its ptype would have us believe.

Canadian starts similar to gfs, but then splits the wave into two and we get some light snow on front end. Second wave more amped

I pay less attention to thermals beyond 6-7 days. If the first wave works out, it’ll lay down snow cover and help us with thermals

Another wave nipping at this one’s heels

Icon was faster, gfs slower, now their timing matches up well based on the 144h panel

I like this run

Light rain, 34/26

The 2/19 might be the wave associated with a better pattern as psu was saying. If it holds

37/18 ashburn

Euro is getting better for us. It shifted bigly north earlier today, and now it came back south almost halfway.

I'd say it's not ideal for a MECS+ MA snow, or even an all snow high-end SECS. But we can still snow in this because there will be plenty of cold air just to our north and all it takes is a 50-100 mile shift south in the boundary for most of the forum to cash in. And this pattern is about to take several shots at us, and one of them is bound to hit us. I'm thinking 3-6" + mix will be a win for most of us. PA north is more likely to stay all snow and get a double-digit storm. We'll see how the polar domain trends on the ensembles because EPS shifted much colder after the 14th.

3rd wave after the 13th may look like ice now verbatim on the GFS, but 2 HPs of ~1040 one to the NW and one to the NE of us, and a SLP in northern Alabama - if it wasn't showing ptypes, I would think snow.

A lot to like about the fact that a 1035-1040 High is to the NW of the Tuesday wave. I'm wondering if the Sun-Mon wave missing us to the south is actually helping us by laying down the track for the Tuesday storm.

Just eyeballing, but that NAO block looks a tick south from previous runs