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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    CAMs were the first to catch on for both Jan events. Can they score a hat trick here?
  2. Terpeast
    Now that is a beatdown (whether it verifies is TBD)
  3. Terpeast
    Interesting how the globals and cams are so far apart on snowfall amounts in this sub less than 24 hours before the event
  4. Terpeast
    Strong convection in the SE is the reason we are seeing a south trend.
  5. Terpeast
    Lo and behold, the 12z HRRR. Could see a few hours of snow on the backend, and a dynamic one at that
  6. Terpeast
    Keeping an eye on how the CAMs resolve the convection the SE, which may lead to pulling the storm further south. Going to be an interesting tracking day.
  7. Terpeast
    No idea, and have no confidence in the LR models either. They missed the wintry week in Jan, and underestimated the “relax” period afterward. They were honking the great pattern, and then it fell apart so quickly. Doesn’t mean they’re more correct now, and ironically the GEPS is now the warmest of the three when it’s usually biased coldest. modeling has been a crapshoot this winter is all I can say
  8. Terpeast
    Models lost the nao basically
  9. Terpeast
    What’s also changed is the nam and eps closes off the h5 wave, whereas before it remained an open wave. 0z should be interesting
  10. Terpeast
    If I were the HC I’d pull Kelce
  11. Terpeast
    You aren’t kidding. This is why I’m not calling TOD on this winter yet.
  12. Terpeast
    I’m waiting until the 18th to call it. If that event fails, and the models are still trending warm all the way into march, then I’m going to start wrapping this thing up and looking at potential winter destinations for next year
  13. Terpeast
    Yeah, if we had a cold airmass in place, we might have gotten a CAD thump (when’s the last time we had CAD?) before a dry slot during the coastal transfer then a ULL pass with additional snow. This year, the only way it snowed was with a -EPO/-NAO combo. PNA didn’t seem to matter. STJ? Any stj wave by itself was too warm. We needed that EPO to deliver the cold air, and a beast NAO to hold it down.
  14. Terpeast
    That ns vort has been quietly trending south the last 6-8 runs. Continue that for for another 24 hours, the N&W crew may back into something here
  15. Terpeast
    I don’t know what the 3rd one was, but that dec event - I’m not sure I agree that its a good example. It was more of a function of timing with cold air’s arrival during the precip event. It morphed from an anafront to a wave along the front. It would have happened the same way 60 years ago vs today, and had that wave been 6 hours slower, we would have gotten a nice 3-6” event across the metros. Jan 7 is the more glaring example, to me. That’s what prompted me to lower my expectations for the rest of the season. Had it been colder, the low would have taken a track 50-100 miles souther than it did, and we’d have gotten 6-12”+
  16. Terpeast
    Jan 7 is the obvious one. What were the other two?
  17. Terpeast
    Same, it’s not over yet. (Even though it feels like the fat lady is clearing her throat about now)
  18. Terpeast
    Yeah, the models are totally lost on handling this pattern change and what comes soon after.
  19. Terpeast
    Great post. You’d think we’d need a beast NAO block, but the feb 7 run is only marginally better than today’s run. It won’t take much at all to reel this one back in. Definitely keeping an eye.
  20. Terpeast
    Op gfs forms another -EPO block at 300+ hours, but ensembles don’t have that yet. Something to keep an eye on whether we see another -EPO show up along with -NAO they keep showing
  21. Terpeast
    I hope you all jebwalked that week of winter and filled up your phone with pics and videos to savor for the next year. Maybe the next two years.
  22. Terpeast
    Models/ensembles have trended warmer towards the end of Feb, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they trended back colder once the pattern change takes hold this week and the convection fires back up in the IO.
  23. Terpeast
    6z gfs at 150 + 0z euro at 234 0z cmc also shows support for feb 17
  24. Terpeast
    I know you’re talking about a different scenario involving a STJ, but this past Jan seemed to have broken the pattern of the northern stream running further north and staying north. Instead it dug further south at the last possible minute and the models were forced to play catch up. Twice in the same week. After this winter, for fun, I’m going to look at what pattern caused it to snow here in every case from 2017 to date. I suspect some combination of -EPO/-NAO but I want to see the data for myself.
  25. Terpeast
    In case you weren’t aware, @Carvers Gap is dropping value bombs with excellent MJO and LR model analysis. You should follow him. Very educational and I’m on the same page as he.
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