Terpeast

Oh i could never be a politician. I’m too honest for that

True about the models, but I don’t think that was a real can kick. If October is abnormally dry though, I’ll concede

I think the easiest answer is the marine heat wave off japan. +5-8c anoms are going to have an effect there. But once the NH cools, that will get chipped away slowly but surely. Like it did the last couple of years, it may take a few months but we have time

Oh are we really doing this? Ok, let’s split hairs. In another post, I said Sept-Nov is when we should see effects. So what is “mid-fall”? Fall is SON, Winter is DJF. In the middle of SON is October. Where’s the can kick?

The effects are more in the southern hemisphere now. After mid-fall or so, it’ll switch over to the northern hemisphere and thats when we should start seeing some typical nino characteristics like a STJ. Aug and early sept are almost irrelevant, except for the tropics.

Was at the stone tower winery today, and it was epic. Temps around 80 with dews in the upper 50s, cool NW breeze and bluest sky I’ve seen in months.

That would be the coldest feb in decades. Maybe historic. Overdone probably

That cell west of winchester means business

Also i wouldn’t be surprised to see an outrageously warm winter month, talking +10. I’m hoping that is December, willing to sacrifice that month for a better Jan-Feb

frd did a good job covering what to watch for. Only thing I would add is the STJ. If we get a decent amount of coastal storms, and we’re AN in precipitation from Sept-Nov, that’s another sign.

I’m not sure, but I’ve always thought that el ninos have more influence on summers the following year after +enso develops. Could be wrong though

Yes its too early to attribute warm season patterns to el nino, the coupling shows up better in the fall as the NH cools

I don’t think the STJ is dependent on the north pac sst field, but rather diabatic heating from enhanced convection east of the dateline over the el nino regions. That forcing increases upper level divergence and, because angular momentum has to be conserved, the STJ has to accelerate- and that happens regardless of npac ssts

So if the cold arctic summer pattern is in place like the last two winters, and PDO is now rising, those are promising signs for this winter then.

I think you’ve hit on the million dollar question that papers are no doubt getting written about. It may influence storm tracks through the strengthening of ridges and weakening of troughs. I don’t think it will materially change the el nino expectations of a STJ and cool south, but whether we will have enough cold air is an open question. I did a crude study a few years ago where going from 17 to 24 degrees while replaying a previous noreaster track would juice the totals even more (assuming the same storm tracks, which is a questionable assumption to make). But if starting from a higher baseline temperature, things would fall off the cliff. We just have to hope we get cold enough air well timed with a STJ wave, and that’s partly luck.

Now there it is, that’s what we want. I hope the bad look is more confined to December. We’ve lost too many februaries in the last several years

That’s going to be too warm for “all snow” storms along i-95. If we could get that GOA low a bit west, the NA ridge a bit north or east, it’ll make room for a stronger and better placed trough over the SE with a pathway for cold enough air. It’s close to something good, but not quite what we need

Mostly in the southern hemipshere, STJ down there is insane. We’re not quite there yet in the NH but should couple better in the next few months as it cools.

Couple things to watch for is the source region as the STJ will almost be a given. If canadian temp anomalies are more than +20 (with Minneapolis +15 or Syracuse +10) it won’t be good for us. But if the temp anomalies are more moderate, we’ll still be in good shape for some opportunities.

Its possible, but the least likely outcome as psuhoffman says. It happened in 23-24 when that nino didn’t fully couple. This time it’s going to be even stronger and the PDO is rising, should be a well coupled event.

There’ll be two camps. Some will go warm and snowless, and others will call for at least one HECS event. Toss up, but I may go the former and then later root against my own forecast.

Let cape mix for once, bring that death band a bit west

Odd, it seemed to have backed west

0.92” with driving rain and strong wind gusts. Probably around 50 mph

Yeah he generally does better than the hype-y social media mets, and he still has a strong following. Amazing. If we get a blizzard this winter, he will triple his follower count for sure!