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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    91 imby
  2. Terpeast
    December 23. That’s when I’ll be out of town, so we know when to book that first snow
  3. Terpeast
    Euro and AI Euro ensembles are switching to -NAO around Oct 22, fwiw, after +NAO for several weeks
  4. Terpeast
    I wouldn’t read too much into this event since it had tropical origins, but either way I’m glad we’re getting more rains and that the heaviest was along the piedmont and mountains. I wouldn’t be surprised to see qpf fields like this throughout the winter. Could be a big year for the ski resorts, and mostly rain for the lowlands outside of (maybe) a well timed storm with cold air.
  5. Terpeast
    Surprised to see 4.53” final total when I woke up, by far the biggest event since I got my ambient
  6. Terpeast
    3.37”
  7. Terpeast
    That last cell pushed me over the 3” mark
  8. Terpeast
    2.78”, becoming more drizzly and showery
  9. Terpeast
    Yes thats what i was also thinking. Even for here just east of 15
  10. Terpeast
    2.5” in ashburn!
  11. Terpeast
    Euro AI ens maintains a +NAO through most of its run, may be able to shock this winter back to life
  12. Terpeast
    Fog
  13. Terpeast
    Looks a lot like 97-98 in terms of snowfall where the apps and interior get dumped on while coastal plains get below climo. But we only need one! (Speaking for the MA)
  14. Terpeast
    All good. With lack of time to do these analyses myself, I tend to make these one off comments going only by memory. But I probably shouldn’t do that, since I work in a different field now and my memory isn’t what it used to be
  15. Terpeast
    Sorry to hear about your loss. My condolences @RickinBaltimore
  16. Terpeast
    Was gonna respond to this with a plot I did years ago showing how the 500mb pattern over the east often reverses from October to DJF (eg east ridge winter after troughing in oct), but the plotting tool I’m using seems to be broken and I don’t have the time to try another tool. I also hadn’t broken it down between la nina and el nino years when I did it back then. What I meant was not only october snow, but the bigger picture of the overall pattern. But without the plots, I can’t make that case now. Oh well.
  17. Terpeast
    Maybe the bad omen only applies to DMV, I have checked the data before. It didn’t look good. But there are always exceptions
  18. Terpeast
    0.18”, low end of what most of the area got. But glad to see that it at least rained
  19. Terpeast
    October snows are a bad omen
  20. Terpeast
    It looks like the strong +AO pushed the mid-high lat ridges further south
  21. Terpeast
    With that in mind, the pdo stopped falling per WCS. Lowest it got was -1.8, now its up to -1.64 today. Should get back to near neutral in a month or so
  22. Terpeast
    The PDO drop back is unfortunate. It’s now around where it was at this time last year, and there is still some time for the PDO to rise back up to near neutral once the marine heat wave area cools off with the season change. But I think +PDO territory is off the table, and the clock is ticking for us to even get back to neutral.
  23. Terpeast
    Hail commanders!!!!
  24. Terpeast
    Yeah, most of the tropical convection is very east based with the MC completely shut down (finally, after 10 years). Interestingly there is some remaining convection right around the dateline or just to the east of it. If I loop the forecast forward, that piece stays there. I think it may actually help us a bit this winter if it keeps going. If not, and it stays this east based, that won’t be good news for our cold/snow chances.
  25. Terpeast
    Rain starting in ashburn. 58
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