Terpeast
-
Posts
5,830 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Terpeast
-
500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this.
-
I know that street. Lived in that neighborhood for a semester and walked to class through there.
-
Yes. This has both glory and heartbreak written all over it.
-
We better keep that 500mb low at the latitude it passes. Can’t afford any further shift north.
-
Still better, energy at 500 more south
-
Yes its a miller b with high bust potential. Best we can expect is 3-5” for many on the forum, 1-3” for others
-
Cape storm looks better consolidated this run
-
Nugget of support for Jan 24-26 potential
-
43 after a midnight high of 50. Looking for it to drop later today.
-
On a serious note, SER being muted in 11-15 day ensembles. Sticking with persistence for now. And a little SE ridging ahead won’t hurt if there’s a big one approaching.
-
Basically said the same thing lol
-
It’s also nice that it was the euro that showed this. If it was the gfs, we wouldn’t have blinked at one of its yet another goofus antics
-
Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario
-
Good hold by the gfs. I like the h5 vort being further south and west of previous runs, temps be damned. This is the path to victory
-
And there is a flip side to this, how infrequent that may be. Jan 2024 gave us a pair of NS storms that dropped 2-5” across our area. Ens means were an inch or less up until 24 hours before the event - in both cases. BUT the lack of ens support is a red flag that we can look back on if this event fails to materialize for us.
-
Also didn’t break 50 today. Yesterday was 53. Was supposed to be the warmest days in the 60s in this January thaw.
-
18z op euro was mostly a skipper. Problem was the 500mb low passed north of us. We can’t have that if we want snow from this event.
-
Finished with 1.14”, first time in many months I’ve had a 1”+ event
-
18z gefs also digging more sw for the cape storm. 12z old run
-
Fwiw gefs is more “diggy” for the jan 15 storm 18z 12z
-
Remember it like yesterday. Storm over GA was supposed to go east ots, but radar showed the blob moving north. Weatherman was just repeating the ots miss line with the radar looping right behind him, and I was yelling at the TV imploring the guy to turn around and LOOK. “It’s gonna snow” I told my parents, they didn’t believe me. Look on their faces when they woke up seeing us blanketed with white… priceless. I ended up with 11” or so.
-
Congratulations! May your baby be perfectly healthy and wish your wife a healthy recovery. My son was just born this past Dec 5th, and we drove through the snowfall to get there… on untreated roads. Was fun if not a bit nerve wracking, but no major logistical issues.
-
In this case… 48 hrs or even less. Today’s model runs are a perfect butterfly effect case study of how tiny changes upstream can change everything for us
-
Verbatim its a blizzard. I’ll take the jackpot imby, but we all know what a jack 5 days out really means lol
-
That 500mb vort still passes over us or just to the south. Thats the thing we need to hold. If it passes north of us, we’re out.
