Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
Terpeast replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
My concern is not so much the winter temps, but the lack of precipitation. Seasonal forecast maps look very very dry here on south. -
The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
Terpeast replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
0.07”. I was out this weekend so I didn’t track this storm, so does anyone remember which models correctly forecasted the evolution of this coastal storm? Take note of that for winter. -
If this continues to hold (a big if) we may do even better than last year with the -qbo. Low expectations going in, though.
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Yeah, some are just dooming. Not entirely without reason. I’m concerned about this winter for our sakes, but I don’t think it will be a total shutout like 22-23 (those are still rare). I do think not only we’ll average +3 over the entire season, but also see at least a couple of 2-week -epo/+pna window of opportunities for a decent event or two. Cold air source regions are starting to build and ahead of where they were last year, so not all hope is lost.
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I’d say in general, we don’t want a cold october as that tends to correlate with milder winters. So if a -NAO causes a colder october in the east, we probably will want to root against it.
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I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it.
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Low of 45 last two mornings. Glorious out
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When the PDO eventually flips positive, even slightly so, and we get a bona fide El Nino. It has to happen sometime
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Best case? 24-25 Worst case? 22-23 Probably something in between.
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2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.
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The AI models still have a long way to go, but they have been particularly good at predicting tropical cyclone tracks.
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1.39” pleasantly surprised
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Bring it! Will be nice to take hour walks in the morning without dripping buckets of sweat.
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I think I see why. Looking at the upper left of each plot, the jet is further north in the new vs old. So instead of buckling southward into western US, it goes over the top of NW Canada promoting a ridge there. Big changes downstream.
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And part of the problem with 22-23 was the timing of those favorable patterns. They happened outside of our peak winter window. Had they occurred in Jan and Feb instead of Dec and Mar, the outcome would probably not have been a ratter like it was.
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Agree. While I may not agree with all parts of it, it's not as hype-y as the title may suggest.
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Cosigned. -PDO actually starting to reverse
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Low of 56. Now 79/57, spectacular day for shopping at the farmers market.
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Euro monthlies come on the 5th of every month.
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Daily pdo from WCS: I’m watching the pdo too. Right now it’s in the gutter, but based on last year’s pattern, we still have about 2 maybe 3 months to turn it around.
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Was checking the cfs and euro monthlies, and both show hints of AK ridging (-epo) which would lead to a winter like last season. With the QBO going negative, it might not be a bad thing. We'll see if this holds because otherwise without that AK ridging given all other factors, we may not have much of a winter to look forward to. So far there's a hint of optimism.
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What caught my attention more than temps is this. Hard to bet on any major coastals if cansips is onto something like it was last year.
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Sorry, Ashburn VA
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Pouring. Lots of lightning, minimal wind. 3.40”/hr peak rain rate, 1” in 30 min
