Terpeast

There was a centipede on my wall, and used a large sheet of paper to carry it outside. That thing was fast! I almost fell over because I had to sprint to the door. I dread the bugs this year...

I wonder what the max totals were in that storm. 18.7” at dca and 20” at bwi seem low given the huge impact. Maybe it was the rates and wind, and the element of surprise? Or was there a local max DC and Southeast? I know IAD only got 16” so they couldn’t have been anywhere near the jack.

Doesn’t look cold enough to me, but the Op is colder. Doesn’t rule out something interesting

Gfs op run at 12z is surprisingly cold at the surface [[moved from other thread so the mods don’t have to]]

I’m ready for spring, tbh. Just waiting until March 1 to grade my temp and precip outlook. If it snows in march I’ll take it, but if it ends up being 60-70 degrees then all the better.

2010 was a brief interruption of the negative pdo cycle when it briefly peaked positive. I thought this Nino would do the same, but the pdo stayed negative.

Bottomed out at 19. Surprised to see that some snow cover survived in my front and back yards

The “fly in the ointment” was extra strat water vapor from the HTHH eruption. This kind of eruption never happened before, and it was thought that strat cooling and a stronger SPV would occur as a result. But no one really knew. Maybe this was a competing influence vs the -QBO and propensity for blocking, resulting in these +/- back and forths. Just speculating

Yeah I saw that… brutal. I feel better about my 1.5” today where I am, instead of being practically across the street from that band

Hope it's alright! lol

Honestly I can't really complain. I'm at between 13-14" on the season and been able to go sledding half a dozen times with my daughter, with a couple of jebwalks while it was actually snowing. She's a weenie like me, and we have a great time together out there. Lots of father/daughter moments made. I couldn't say that last winter. Yes, I'm dissapointed that we didn't get a HECS, and this being a Nino year, we probably blew our shot at one of those and it'll likely be years before we get another loaded chance. But from where I'm sitting, I can't complain. Ironically, most of our snows came from nina-like northern stream lows. I'd be THRILLED if I got 14" in a La Nina winter.

Flurries

Not sure about DCA, but after today IAD has 11.7” on the season. Edit: DCA at exactly 8.0”

That was with a more favorable pacific and +PDO

All ensembles show a mslp track to our north and west, at least at 6z

Hard to predict enso beyond the spring predictability barrier, let alone 2 years from now

I think the Pacific cycle will flip soon, within a few years. Blocking, I’m not so sure because we’re about to enter a descending phase of the solar cycle. But the association between blocking and solar is tenously weak at best, so I could be wrong. And I’ve also observed that NS waves have been more juicy, which gave us a good January and the PA/NJ/NY crowd a great week this week. STJ waves have been too warm because they haven’t been able to sync up with cold air at all. If that changes, though, and we get cold air on our side, and we manage a STJ or phased wave, totals will be truly jawdropping. My wag, though, is that next year won’t be it. Maybe the year after.

Well, that means we still have a chance

So far LWX is leaning on the gfs over the euro, but it’s wide open now given recent model performance

That fgen band was about 50 miles further north and much stronger than modeled. I saw this coming as soon as the dual band structure showed up and the north trend started.

Those were the days. Luckily I have a photographic memory so it remains as real as the crispness of it in my head

I’m tempted to have something to say about that, but after getting called out for being “too depressing”, I’ll just say that I’m soaking it all in right now

Just went sledding with my daughter. Surprisingly good and fast! Happy to have gotten just enough for it and the rest doesn’t really matter

That second January storm was the closest thing to cold smoke imby. Temp never got above 28 if I remember correctly

12/11: 0.5” 1/1: T 1/6: 0.2" (sleet/snow mix) 1/15-16: 4.8” 1/19: 5.5” 2/13: 0.7” 2/17: 1.5” Season total: 13.2”