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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    If that verifies, someone along the m/d line is getting 7”+
  2. Terpeast
    I'll happily take a 2-4er
  3. Terpeast
    23.7 low, heavy frost. 36 now
  4. Terpeast
    Ironically, I think CC will do it. But who knows what will come next
  5. Terpeast
    Not if the west pac warm pool and seas off Japan remain boiling. And a strong nina will just concentrate warm waters in the MC
  6. Terpeast
    I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory.
  7. Terpeast
    Its certainly possible. March waves tend to be crazy amplified but timing with cold air will be tricky esepcially this year. I’d be happy with one more chance to play in the snow with my daughter and call it a winter, though. That’s where my head’s at now
  8. Terpeast
    Could be the last chance then that’d be all folks
  9. Terpeast
    Yep getting interesting. A little south trend won’t hurt. Wiggle room!
  10. Terpeast
    Agree. Glimmer of hope is that we may not have to wait that long for the -pdo to end. CC may be causing more variability and quicker flips between + and - Plus according to this graph, we’ve been in a neg pdo since following the 1998 super nino. Hard to tell and data before 1930 or so is likely suspect, but the cycles were prolonged in the past, and they seem to be shortening over time. 1840-1880: neg for 40 years 1880-1910: pos for 30 years 1910-1925: brief neg for 15y 1924-1945: pos 20y 1945-1975: neg 30y 1975-1998: pos 23y 1998-now: neg 26y but with brief 2-4 year interruptions I suspect that it won’t be long until it flips back, but the positive cycles will become shorter each cycle, same with negative. wild card is in the marine heat waves, those may change things in unforeseen ways
  11. Terpeast
    Cool, just downloaded too. I’ll get on the rapid rewards tomorrow too. Getting ready to get some free flights next year, wherever that may be!
  12. Terpeast
    Thanks PSU! BWI is a bit of a drive but willing to give that a try. You use the rapid rewards program?
  13. Terpeast
    Thank you for the app recommendation! Just downloaded it, and when I’m ready to use it I’ll pay
  14. Terpeast
    I hate to say this but that’s very nina-like. In a strong borderline super nino no less.
  15. Terpeast
    Looks better with temps this holds through 0z and 12z tomorrow, I’ll be more interested
  16. Terpeast
    Mostly as a personal note to myself- Maybe the smart thing to do is wait until mid-December to book any trip and see which ski areas are doing well.
  17. Terpeast
    Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then
  18. Terpeast
    I like you Jeb, but no.
  19. Terpeast
    I heard from another poster (maybe bluewave or someone else?) that a SSW is only good if we already have blocking in place. Didn't turn out to be the case this time, and in 2019. It only seemed to disrupt the blocking we already had. So it's probably better to have that disrupting mechanism when we have a polar domain we don't like, i.e. +AO. Next time I'd rather get a SSW when we have a +AO so we can break it, instead of a SSW potentially ruining a block that was already in place. (Ji said what I just said in 8 words)
  20. Terpeast
    Conditions there will be even better next year
  21. Terpeast
    Oh, there will be. Maybe as soon as the end of this year?
  22. Terpeast
    Would be great to get a slight south trend with colder air so we get the secondary precip max across the DC/Balt metros. Given the makeup of this winter, that certainly isn't out of the question.
  23. Terpeast
    Looks like a dragon's claw
  24. Terpeast
    Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season.
  25. Terpeast
    NAM trended not only warmer, but also faster the past 4 runs. We'll want it to slow down a bit to get it timed better with colder air. But with things being so progressive... (I'll let you finish that thought yourselves)
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