Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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AI models, being underdispersive, tend to latch onto a solution early on. It’s great when they get the storm track correct. It’s an overconfident whiff in other cases where they get it wrong, though. Other than not being based on (and constrained by) the laws of physics, it’s one main weakness of AIWP models.
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Give me one more storm on the 20th, preferrably a MECS+, then bring on Spring. Would have no complaints about that.
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Hope yall got your jebwalks and took your kids (if you have any) out earlier today. Now it’s gross
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Nope, still 12z as they don't assimilate any new data beyond their originally scheduled run
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Just got word that 12z euro is now running and should be done in 1 hour... THEN they will release the data, so it may be a while before we see the images
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Site back up: ECMWF | Advancing global NWP through international collaboration
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Maybe I got it mixed up with another storm. But I do remember a major double digit storm where Bob Ryan went low and stayed low, it was almost like he totally disengaged from it all.
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On a separate domain
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Yep, this seems to be a S&E winter with the exception of the Jan 19 storm. I have almost 17" on the season by comparison, with just a few inches to go before hitting climo
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It was 96. I stopped listening to Bob Ryan after that.
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Euro having issues again, and its worse this run. Status page is also down
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That's certainly FOLKS worthy. Feb 2015 is looking like a decent analog at least for THIS run.
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Don't want to get anyone's hopes up, but I saw 2/5/2010 for 6-10 day and 2/14/2015 for 11-15. That's just from 00z today
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Snizzle, 30/28. Not expecting it to add anything to my totals.
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It's gonna change the next run (and the 50 runs after that)
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I'm interested. Some good analogs popping up here.
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Didn’t catch the Bob part. There were so many folks posting haha I stuck with my 3-6” call here though, and also pointed out that the HRRR trended wetter at game time
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Bob’s still at it?
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Fair. Was mainly speaking for DC metro (and also is true for south and east)
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I’m only a few inches from climo imby and we may have another shot by next weekend. This winter has exceeded many expectations.
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12/24: 0.1” 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.6” 1/11: 1.3” 1/16: 0.5” 1/19: 2.0” 2/8: 0.1” 2/11: 5.0” Season total: 16.9”
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Looks like another inch had fallen after I went to bed. So 5” total with compaction. Warning verified.
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Great storm everyone! Heading to bed with 4.5” or so and snowing lightly.
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Just measured 4.2”
