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Everything posted by Terpeast
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I don't think PSU is depressing himself here. He's looking at the data, being realistic, and trying to give us a dose of realism. I may strike a more optimistic tone than PSU, but I mostly agree with him (like 95%). And although I'm usually an optimist, I'm pretty black-pilled about winter 2024-25.
- 2,529 replies
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- 8
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
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Annual family vacation to guaranteed snowy destinations. That's gonna be the way... Especially next year's Super Nina, +QBO, +AO, descending solar off a maximum, with continued marine heat waves off Japan and the West Pac warm pool. Did you see the CFS sst forecast in the NCEP ENSO update? Winter 2024-25 is going to be historic... and not in the way we want it. Look at this. Horrifying.
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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Too bad it's the ICON -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
I was surprised we got ANY snowfall from this. Zero cold air, no NAO, we were coming off a warm pattern, and the "pattern change" was set to start with the passage of this storm. We don't usually get any snow at the beginning of a pattern change, usuaally in the middle or end of it. We wouldn't be having this conversation if this thing tracked north across PA and hit New England with a foot+ of snow. Instead we'd be saying, "ok this is the start of a pattern change, now let's start tracking." We (far N&W favored areas with elevation) got lucky with this one. -
Same, 7A. +6 since 2012. Hard to believe, since I ran the numbers on IAD and it's a more gradual +4 since 1962
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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, shift the whole thing a couple hours earlier before sunrise and I’d have gotten a couple inches. And this was a fast moving storm that just hauled its ass out of here -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
As of 9:37 AM. That 0.6" 2 miles east of Leesburg checks out compared to mby. Should get a more complete set of obs by noon-ish. ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL MEASURED (inches) MARYLAND ...Allegany County... Potomac Park 2 NW 5.5 800 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways Bellegrove 1 SSE 3.8 831 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter ...Baltimore County... Lineboro 4 E 3.5 905 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Bentley Springs 3 SS 2.0 834 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Bentley Springs 6 S 2.0 900 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways Bentley Springs 1 E 1.0 720 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Glyndon 1 SW 0.2 844 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter ...Carroll County... Manchester 6 WNW 4.3 916 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Manchester 5 WNW 4.1 914 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Taneytown NE 4.0 915 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Taneytown 2.0 915 AM 2/13 Public Westminster 6 NE 1.5 833 AM 2/13 NWS Employee Uniontown 3 N 1.1 704 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Westminster 1 NNE 1.0 800 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways ...Cecil County... Elkton 2 W 2.5 900 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways Rising Sun 1.0 907 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Port Deposit 1.0 905 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Sabillasville 3 SSW 4.5 831 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Wolfsville 3 ENE 4.0 800 AM 2/13 Public Emmitsburg 1 S 3.0 759 AM 2/13 Emergency Mngr Ballenger Creek 1 E 2.8 900 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways Thurmont 2.8 910 AM 2/13 Public Bloomfield 2 WSW 2.4 800 AM 2/13 NWS Employee Utica 2 W 1.5 830 AM 2/13 Public Frederick 1 SE 1.0 830 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Adamstown 1 ESE 0.9 920 AM 2/13 NWS Employee ...Garrett County... Grantsville 1 NE 7.0 815 AM 2/13 Near Grantsville Grantsville 6.5 800 AM 2/13 Public Grantsville 5 W 6.0 700 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways Frostburg 3 WNW 5.5 801 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Deer Park 6 NE 5.0 700 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Accident 4 E 4.8 700 AM 2/13 Public Oakland 4.0 521 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways Kitzmiller 5 NNW 3.8 800 AM 2/13 Swanton, MD ...Harford County... Norrisville 1 WSW 3.0 830 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS Forest Hill 1 NNW 2.0 845 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Fallston 3 N 1.0 826 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Churchville 1 SE 0.5 800 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways ...Montgomery County... Damascus 3 SSW 1.6 934 AM 2/13 Co-Op Observer Washington Grove 1 N 0.5 919 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter ...Washington County... Fort Ritchie 1 NE 6.8 735 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Fort Ritchie 1 NNE 6.5 700 AM 2/13 Public Funkstown 2 WSW 4.5 900 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways Boonsboro 3.7 840 AM 2/13 Public Pecktonville 3 NNW 3.6 822 AM 2/13 NWS Employee Rohersville 2 WNW 3.5 816 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Boonsboro 3 NNE 3.3 900 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Maugansville WSW 2.8 700 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Hancock 1 ESE 2.8 809 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Long Meadow 2 W 2.8 726 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter VIRGINIA ...Clarke County... Berryville 1 NNW 1.3 705 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Berryville NW 1.0 700 AM 2/13 Public ...Fairfax County... Herndon 1 NNE 0.3 755 AM 2/13 NWS Employee ...Frederick County... Gravel Springs 4 W 4.5 923 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Winchester 4 NW 3.5 929 AM 2/13 Public Hayfield 1 N 2.3 755 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Winchester 3 E 1.8 816 AM 2/13 Public Winchester 2 WNW 1.6 715 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter ...Highland County... Hightown 3 NW 4.5 922 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways ...Loudoun County... Lovettsville 2.0 919 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Round Hill 1 WNW 1.7 917 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Leesburg 2 E 0.6 918 AM 2/13 NWS Employee ...Madison County... Big Meadows 1.5 615 AM 2/13 Park/Forest Srvc ...Nelson County... Wintergreen 4 NW 1.5 745 AM 2/13 At Devils Knob, 3500ft Wintergreen 3 NW 0.5 730 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter ...Prince William County... Woolsey 1 SW T 700 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter ...Rappahannock County... Chester Gap 2.0 900 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter ...Rockingham County... Massanutten 1 NNE 2.0 818 AM 2/13 Public ...Shenandoah County... Basye 2 NNE 4.0 823 AM 2/13 Public ...Warren County... Karo 1 WSW 0.6 830 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter WEST VIRGINIA ...Berkeley County... Martinsburg 2 E 3.0 858 AM 2/13 NWS Employee Falling Waters 2 NW 2.6 820 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter ...Grant County... Mount Storm 8.0 756 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways ...Hampshire County... Capon Bridge 5 WSW 5.0 910 AM 2/13 Public Romney 2 E 4.5 839 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways ...Hardy County... Wardensville 3 E 5.0 907 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Moorefield 1 SE 3.0 830 AM 2/13 Public Moorefield 2.5 844 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways ...Jefferson County... Bloomery 3 SSE 3.7 913 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Rippon 2 W 1.0 935 AM 2/13 NWS Employee ...Mineral County... Hartmansville 1 E 5.5 758 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways Burlington E 1.8 730 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter New Creek 1.5 758 AM 2/13 Dept of Highways ...Morgan County... Berkeley Spgs 4.5 820 AM 2/13 Public Berryville 4.0 850 AM 2/13 Public ...Pendleton County... Cherry Grove 6 WSW 5.0 753 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Upper Track 1 N 2.3 829 AM 2/13 Public Deer Run 2 WSW 2.0 751 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Franklin 1.8 829 AM 2/13 Emergency Mngr -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Congrats PSU! -
Beware the Last Minute South Trend™
- 2,529 replies
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- 9
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
That extra 100’ in elevation plus being 15 miles west of me made a big difference for you -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Light snow became more moderate. Maintenance snow now -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Agreed -
Mid-Atlantic Snow Totals Thread - Winter 2023-2024
Terpeast replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
12/11: 0.5” 1/1: T 1/6: 0.2" (sleet/snow mix) 1/15-16: 4.8” 1/19: 5.5” 2/13: 0.7” Total so far: 11.7” -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Light snow now, and I can see it already melting. Given what’s fallen, I think 0.7” is a fair estimate. Snow depth 0.5”. -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Can cosign. If only it were a degree colder, I’d have twice or 3x as much as I have now -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
You’re doing better than me. I have about 0.5-0.6” and roads are just slushy -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
You did well! Far beyond your expectations. I’m still fighting for the first inch. Still coming down good -
Seems like one winter personality trait is the last minute south trend. Any cutter at range should be seen with skepticism
- 2,529 replies
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- 2
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
If we can keep these rates going for another 45 minutes I should hit an inch -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Whitening up. Coming down good. 32.9/32.7 -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Bigger flakes coming down harder -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
But the flip was 7 am (12z). It was right on cue. I hope you weren’t hugging the 10:1 maps from the RAP, were you? -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Down to 33.3/33.0. Should cave soon -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Terpeast replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
I don’t think the dry slot hurt us. It would have been just rain