Terpeast

Icon was faster, gfs slower, now their timing matches up well based on the 144h panel

I like this run

Light rain, 34/26

The 2/19 might be the wave associated with a better pattern as psu was saying. If it holds

37/18 ashburn

Euro is getting better for us. It shifted bigly north earlier today, and now it came back south almost halfway.

I'd say it's not ideal for a MECS+ MA snow, or even an all snow high-end SECS. But we can still snow in this because there will be plenty of cold air just to our north and all it takes is a 50-100 mile shift south in the boundary for most of the forum to cash in. And this pattern is about to take several shots at us, and one of them is bound to hit us. I'm thinking 3-6" + mix will be a win for most of us. PA north is more likely to stay all snow and get a double-digit storm. We'll see how the polar domain trends on the ensembles because EPS shifted much colder after the 14th.

3rd wave after the 13th may look like ice now verbatim on the GFS, but 2 HPs of ~1040 one to the NW and one to the NE of us, and a SLP in northern Alabama - if it wasn't showing ptypes, I would think snow.

A lot to like about the fact that a 1035-1040 High is to the NW of the Tuesday wave. I'm wondering if the Sun-Mon wave missing us to the south is actually helping us by laying down the track for the Tuesday storm.

Just eyeballing, but that NAO block looks a tick south from previous runs

I was thinking even last night that the NAO block was further north than usual But I ain't shedding a tear over the crazy euro snow map up through NE, most of that comes after day 10 which will almost certainly change of course

Yes, you're right, it was 0z I was comparing to. My bad

Looks like a thump to mix for DC & points NW

12z euro is colder both at sfc and 850, thicknesses further south (compared to 06z)

Yeah, it’s more north-based block, which still works without playing up suppression risk. No chance of New Orleans getting 10” this time haha

Nothing falling here. Just was out for half an hour. But cold. 34/19

This is exactly why I keep saying we need wiggle room by being on the north side of the heaviest snows modeled a week out. We have no wiggle room left with the euro op/ens, but it’s on its own at least for now.

Looks like we want to root for an earlier start (or the first wave to be dominant) when we still have the thermals for a most/all snow event

I see it a tick south, but still great for us

Possible reason why GFS went south was it trended stronger with the EPO ridge and is also flatter with the overall flow. While the euro also has that EPO ridge, it digs the trough more to the west of us allowing the storm to consolidate and/or amplify. The gfs has a few weaker waves along the flatter boundary. Both give us good results, and I think there will likely be more amplitude and less suppression in mid-February than January.

18z had the precursor too. Just the second one went a bit south, which honestly is a decent place to be at this lead. Plenty of wiggle room.

Going good at 165

Lt-mod 159, heights a tick south

Light snow starting at 156

Good points, and yes both ens have -ao/-nao in spades