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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Everybody is expecting the eagles to feed barkley and for him to run for 200+ yards. What if, just maybe, commanders stop barkley and hold him to less than 120 yards and pull out an upset over the eagles? Before saying that’ll never happen, remember what people were saying before the lions game.
  2. Terpeast
    With such big changes, its obvious the models are flip flopping. Weeklies don’t look all that great, but with the boundary closeby and the PV on our side of the globe, it doesn’t take big changes to bring us enough cold for snow. Best to watch trends over 4-8 model cycles than the shifts of each cycle.
  3. Terpeast
    Western ridging trending stronger at 360 va previous runs. Still need to keep an eye on the AK ridge and how that also trends. Looks to me the SE ridge end of run is more transient for now
  4. Terpeast
    Just took a quick look at the ens, it looks like we’ll have a NN week up to Jan 31, but dry. Then a mild first week of Feb, and then likely cold again after feb 6-7 when things might get interesting. By the first week of feb we should be tracking something.
  5. Terpeast
    FIFY. Not a fan of ice storms, but that’s me.
  6. Terpeast
    Low of 14, now 25. High clouds
  7. Terpeast
    Feels like the winters of my childhood years. I’m at around 60% of climo so far with roughly halfway to go
  8. Terpeast
    I remember that storm. 5 inches of cold smoke. Loved it
  9. Terpeast
    The snow got its sparkle back. I guess bitter cold temps does that. And the creek behind my house is frozen solid. Probably safe to skate on (not that I’ll actually do it)
  10. Terpeast
    Low of 2.8
  11. Terpeast
    I wasn’t here for 2014 (got back in late 2015 for almost a year till I went overseas for a while), so the last time for me here was 2004 I think. Not a lot of snowfall, but it was cold and icy. Kept the pack for a long time.
  12. Terpeast
    8 at 10 pm in ashburn
  13. Terpeast
    Might even make a run at 3 consecutive weeks with snow cover. Day 17 now
  14. Terpeast
    I’m not sure our friends in SoCal are going to like this.
  15. Terpeast
    Down to under 10 already. 9.9
  16. Terpeast
    21.8 for the high, real temp probably 20 if calibrated. Waiting for another month of data to do it properly. Lowest wind chill was -3 though Now 13
  17. Terpeast
    I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here. Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time.
  18. Terpeast
    Recorded a wind chill of -1 as well
  19. Terpeast
    Paste bomb verbatim, yes. Let’s see how the temps trend if the wave holds as it gets closer.
  20. Terpeast
    Maybe it’s a mental thing or the air is thinner up there, but 20-30 doesn’t feel that cold in the rockies or sierras. But here, its freezing. One time in steamboat springs, we were swimming in the hot springs when it was 17 degrees out.
  21. Terpeast
    And 16th straight day of snow cover. Pleased with this January when expectations for this winter was super low.
  22. Terpeast
    Saw some high clouds just to the SE of me, that was probably what kept the three climo sites warmer than just to the NW. I also noticed that my station runs 1.5 degrees warmer than the average of the surrounding stations, so I might have to do some calibration. My car’s thermometer said 7 degrees, and it usually runs 1-2 degrees too warm.
  23. Terpeast
    8.8 still dropping. Core of cold is just west of the metros
  24. Terpeast
    Low of 9 so far
  25. Terpeast
    This looks very similar to what the ensembles are showing at the end of their runs. It’s not shit the blinds pattern, more of a gradient one with cold air lurking just to the north. Upper plains and great lakes will do well, and every cutter of decent strength will bring in cold air southward and eastward. Those are the short/small windows to watch for for any small hits or well timed phasers. Late feb and march should also be interesting.
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