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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. 37/34. No precip yet, but radar filling to the west. R/S line between leesburg and frederick and moving south. Should be snowing here by 1 pm
  2. I’m still at 37 but see lots of 34s just to the NW of me
  3. This. My window for heavy snow is 1-4 pm. If its 36 and raining at 1 pm, I’m calling bust on my own forecast
  4. Radar looks healthy out west in WV. I’m still at 37 now, but I expect to drop further at around 11 am or so. Maybe sooner if Frederick is already seeing flakes
  5. You’ll do pretty well up there. Down here closer to i-66/rt 50 line is gonna be dicey and the only way we get real accums is heavy banding when the front passes
  6. It won’t take much. Once the rates come, temps are gonna drop and fast. Entire column is cold enough, except the bottom portion of the boundary layer. May lose just <0.1” qpf because of that, nbd. Just means we probably won’t hit the high end of the forecast
  7. Rose to 38.5 at 6 am, dropped to 37 since. Radar showing growing precip west of charleston wv - those are the goods to watch.
  8. I know right? This event hasn’t even started yet and we’re cliff diving. Yes we’re running a bit warm atm but the arctic front is coming and banding will develop along that front. It’ll be a beatdown and how much we get will be determined how long the banding lasts
  9. Cold air is slower, precip about the same. LWX says precip is faster, but I don’t see that yet.
  10. I still think we have a shot at 3” or a little more when the arctic front passes with heavy banding along that.
  11. It would be hilarious if the RGEM had the right original idea
  12. Not a promising sign for south of i-66/rt 50. North of that should still be on track. Gonna be an interesting afternoon .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile, models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected. Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from 0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that 925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event. Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly, basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time was adjusted to bring precip sooner.
  13. Now we know what their offseason priorities are. it aint over till its over. Its on the defense now
  14. I would have never predicted we’d be up 17 with 8 min left
  15. What the what? What JUST happened??
  16. So I don’t know what the outcome of this game is going to be, but we just put up 31 points on the best seeded NFC team… in one half… on the ROAD
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