Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Yeah, their stats only compare the AIFS with the other AI models, but not the NWP models. I usually like to compare AI vs NWP of the same model family (Euro AI vs NWP, GFS AI vs NWP, etc). That’s where I got my assessment from.
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Wouldn’t be surprised if this went into OT
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23.4 so far for the low
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Not really true, sorry edit: sometimes it performs better in days 1-5, equal in 6-10, same or worse in 11-15… lots of spikes and valleys and there’s no way to know when it’s right or way off. I’ll give it credit for the 1/6 storm which it did well on, but it did poorly for 1/11 at D6+ because it overpredicted the cold after the first storm. Best used as a comparison tool as a way to hold the operational “accountable”, or as another ensemble member.
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I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once.
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Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs.
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And do you have to book tix in advance or can you just walk right up and rent a tube?
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While I wouldn’t paint them a fraud unless they outright steal other people’s work, they have a pattern of overhyping cold shots. Like posting an op or control run showing widespread -20/-30 departures at 10+ days out on social media, being too declarative in their forecast instead of showing comparisons, and everyone running with it, while ensembles show a more conservative departure.
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Snowpack holding on strong despite the sun and temp pushing 40
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I wonder if that would actually push the pna ridge further east so instead of a west-central trough, it’ll be situated closer to the east.
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CMC/GEPS still has a cold bias, but it’s still verifying better than the GFS.
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I don’t know about 60s, but I imagine making a run at 50 wouldn’t be too difficult without the pack
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If we’re calling 39 a mini torch, you know it’s been pretty cold for a long duration.
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Low of 27, bit warm compared to other places
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Especially considering this winter was, on paper, supposed to be a ratter. I know you were skeptical, and that was a good call on your part. I initially thought ratter, but when I checked the analogs and adjusted for recent climate, I was like “hmm, maybe not as bad as we think it’s going to be.” It’s in the thread title of my outlook
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Safe to say this one overperformed DC N&W and underperformed S & E
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12/24: 0.1” 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.6” 1/11: 1.3” Season total: 9.3”
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Just measured 1.3” in Ashburn. Everything white again. Winter wonderland
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Rates starting to lighten, but still dumping good. Getting close to an inch… i think I get there. going to bed now, gn all. Enjoy! Anything we get after this round is house money to me
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Visibility just dropped way down. If this holds for another 30 min, I get the inch
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Looks like 0.7” so far
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Bigger flakes mixing in
