Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Jebwalked with my daughter, already 0.2” and big flakes coming down. Loving it
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Finally snowing
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Still nothing...
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Devil's advocate. One thing that might keep the NW trend to a minimum is the PV pressing SEward and less wave spacing between the sunday system and the preceding low. How far and how strongly the sfc flow is and the PV press is will determine the ultimate track. But if this cold PV is as strong as depicted, I don't think there's a whole lot of room to trend NW.
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Nothing yet, but hopefully soon
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That's funny. I gotta wonder though... my ambient station's temp really shoots up whenever the sun comes out, being 2-3 degrees warmer than other stations around me. But at night, it's on par with other stations. Do I need to calibrate it? Or was it just sited poorly?
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broke freezing, 34.5 for the high
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Seeing breaks through clouds, up to 31 now. Radar seems to be filling back in to the west.
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Can anyone post the >3in probability map for EPS just to compare with GEFS?
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All it means it leaves open the possibility for a weaker, late developing wave with less qpf.
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New GEFS cycle likely has some members riding the i-95 fall line with that distribution of max probabilities in our sub. It's a new sign that SE of DC will be sweating the r/s line on Sun-Mon. Take note.
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CMC a little closer to us with the second storm, but different time frame than the GFS. Still all over the place, best to lean on ensemble trends for now.
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Probably best to reserve judgement until the 12z Euro, but I'll pitch in anyway. The CMC/RGEM is probably the most amped/warmest scenario with the highest upside for snowfall totals N/W of i-95 especially near the blue ridge and MoCo/HoCo death band region. Not quite buying into it yet, but the GFS and ICON has trended closer to a more amped solution. For now, the latter camp is a more modest 2-4/3-5" scenario for all of the subforum including DC metro with little or no mixing/fall line issues. We'll see what the Euro says, and if the CMC trends a bit towards a "compromise".
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4" otg then 5-20 degrees for the next 2-3 days. Deep winter. I'll take.
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Am I the only one who holds his breath while squinting through the window to see if there are any pixie flakes falling?
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Coulda been that this round just floated over our heads and landed to the east of us
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Always take the sure thing. Generally speaking, though... Sunday isn't yet a sure thing even at this range lol
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Anyone in Leesburg/Purcellville/Reston seeing flurries? Nothing falling here in Ashburn
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Same here. Only south facing inclines are bare ground. My north side is still covered, thinking we've surpassed last year's snow cover in terms of length. Btw, radar looks good. But not seeing anything falling outside... yet?
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Low of 12, now 19
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If you check the h5 maps and compare with previous runs, it’ll be obvious how chaotic all the pieces are up there especially on the gfs. Plus that ice to rain scenario had little or no ensemble support on 18z, and I think 0z gefs won’t show much support either.
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More poleward aleutian/AK ridging, and hints of scandinavian ridging sneaking into the AO domain. If they connect, first half of Feb is gonna be cold
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The key to this is whether the scandinavian ridge connects with the aleutian ridge to drop the AO and keep the cold across the CONUS. Something to keep an eye on, because if this connection fails, we may see more SE ridging.
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Only 31 for the high.
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CMC is on par with GFS for 6-10 day verification in North America over the past month or two. Euro and AIFS better. I think the next week's storm(?) is going to be a 72-hour or less tracking thing. Beyond that, we might be playing the roulette wheel.
